By Daniel Mason DCroz amp Shahnila Islam What are scenarios Scenarios are plausible futures Scenarios are whatif stories used to explore future uncertainties Scenarios can be told in narratives numbers and even images ID: 395915
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Slide1
Scenario Analysis
By: Daniel Mason-
D’Croz
&
Shahnila
IslamSlide2
What are scenarios
Scenarios are plausible futures
Scenarios are what-if stories used to explore future uncertainties
Scenarios can be told in narratives, numbers, and even images
Scenarios are
not
predictions of the future, but are instead focused on system dynamics and interactions and are based on knowledge of past and current behaviorSlide3
Moving from the Past to the Future
Future: broad uncertainty
Forecasting
Past
Present perspectiveSlide4
Limitations of ForecastingSlide5
Moving from the Past to the Future
Future: broad uncertainty
Scenarios
Past
Present perspectiveSlide6
Scenario ExampleSlide7
Who uses scenarios?
Has a long history of use in the military
Businesses have also used scenarios extensively
People do basic scenario planning every daySlide8
Why use scenarios?
Scenarios provide concrete ways to deal with future uncertainty
They allow us to identify current and potential challenges and institutional vulnerabilities
Allow us to test and develop policies ex-ante based on our current understanding of system behaviorSlide9
Scenario studies you may be familiar with
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
Presidential Elections
WTO Scenarios
WHO ScenariosSlide10
Models
Models are logical constructs that represent dynamic systems
Models can:
Simplify a complex system
Highlight key behaviors and relationships
Provide insights to the inner workings of a system
Models cannot and do not explain everything
Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simplerSlide11
Why use models
Allow for pseudo-scientific experimentation in an ex-ante environment
Allow for the combination of diverse assumptions on various key drivers, without also specifying how they will effect each other
Allow us to isolate parts of a complex system and analyze it
Because we can’t wait till 2050 to start planning policiesSlide12
What uncertainties do we test?
Demographic shifts (population growth, migration, aging, etc.)
Economic growth and development
Technological Advances
Climate Change
Water Resource ManagementSlide13
Standard IMPACT scenarios
IMPACT Drivers:
Population
GDP
Climate
Technology Growth Assumptions
Water Resource Management and Infrastructure
Drivers are combined to create a suite of scenarios to create an envelope of plausible futures (worst-case, best-case, and scenarios in between)Slide14
Global Future Scenarios
Drought Tolerance
Heat Tolerance
Higher Yield Crops
Pest Management Practices
Differing Maturity Crops
C4 RiceSlide15
Questions