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Scenario Analysis Scenario Analysis

Scenario Analysis - PowerPoint Presentation

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Uploaded On 2016-07-08

Scenario Analysis - PPT Presentation

By Daniel Mason DCroz amp Shahnila Islam What are scenarios Scenarios are plausible futures Scenarios are whatif stories used to explore future uncertainties Scenarios can be told in narratives numbers and even images ID: 395915

future scenarios system models scenarios future models system scenario current uncertainty growth management impact ante policies present forecasting resource

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Presentation Transcript

Slide1

Scenario Analysis

By: Daniel Mason-

D’Croz

&

Shahnila

IslamSlide2

What are scenarios

Scenarios are plausible futures

Scenarios are what-if stories used to explore future uncertainties

Scenarios can be told in narratives, numbers, and even images

Scenarios are

not

predictions of the future, but are instead focused on system dynamics and interactions and are based on knowledge of past and current behaviorSlide3

Moving from the Past to the Future

Future: broad uncertainty

Forecasting

Past

Present perspectiveSlide4

Limitations of ForecastingSlide5

Moving from the Past to the Future

Future: broad uncertainty

Scenarios

Past

Present perspectiveSlide6

Scenario ExampleSlide7

Who uses scenarios?

Has a long history of use in the military

Businesses have also used scenarios extensively

People do basic scenario planning every daySlide8

Why use scenarios?

Scenarios provide concrete ways to deal with future uncertainty

They allow us to identify current and potential challenges and institutional vulnerabilities

Allow us to test and develop policies ex-ante based on our current understanding of system behaviorSlide9

Scenario studies you may be familiar with

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Presidential Elections

WTO Scenarios

WHO ScenariosSlide10

Models

Models are logical constructs that represent dynamic systems

Models can:

Simplify a complex system

Highlight key behaviors and relationships

Provide insights to the inner workings of a system

Models cannot and do not explain everything

Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simplerSlide11

Why use models

Allow for pseudo-scientific experimentation in an ex-ante environment

Allow for the combination of diverse assumptions on various key drivers, without also specifying how they will effect each other

Allow us to isolate parts of a complex system and analyze it

Because we can’t wait till 2050 to start planning policiesSlide12

What uncertainties do we test?

Demographic shifts (population growth, migration, aging, etc.)

Economic growth and development

Technological Advances

Climate Change

Water Resource ManagementSlide13

Standard IMPACT scenarios

IMPACT Drivers:

Population

GDP

Climate

Technology Growth Assumptions

Water Resource Management and Infrastructure

Drivers are combined to create a suite of scenarios to create an envelope of plausible futures (worst-case, best-case, and scenarios in between)Slide14

Global Future Scenarios

Drought Tolerance

Heat Tolerance

Higher Yield Crops

Pest Management Practices

Differing Maturity Crops

C4 RiceSlide15

Questions