Broward County - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update

Wednesday

, March 19, 2014Slide2

Broward County 2014 TAZ and

Municipal Forecasts Update

Introduction to the

2014 Population Projection Allocation Update OverviewBureau of Economic and Business Research Population Forecast (BEBR)BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward CountyBroward County Households by Age of HouseholderBroward County Households by Household SizeAssignment of Dwelling Units, Households, and Household Population to Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZs)Municipal Forecast of Dwelling Units, Households, and Population Slide3

I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014

TAZ and

Municipal Forecasts Update

An update of forecast model developed in 2012 that was professionally acceptable and replicable.A continuation and update of the County’s 2012 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts.The update includes modifications and comments obtained from the 2012 Population Roundtable process approved methodology.Replaced internally-developed countywide forecasts with population forecasts prepared by University of Florida’s BEBR.Slide4

I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ and

Municipal

Forecasts Update

Key InputUniversity of Florida’s BEBR, “Detailed Population Projections by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin, for Florida and Its Counties, 2015-2040, With Estimates for 2012 All Races” Key ActionConvert and assign

the BEBR forecasted estimates (2015-2040) to

Broward County’s 2010

TAZ and municipalities using a household based model.

Key Output

Forecasts of

households,

household size, group quarters’ population, seasonally-occupied housing units, and all-other vacant units for years 2015 through 2040 in 5-year increments and supporting

documentation.

TAZ

and municipal level

forecasts of

housing

and population data for years 2015 through 2040 in 5-year

increments.

**

Base

year of 2010 provided for reference

purposes.Slide5

I. Introduction to the Broward County 2014 TAZ and Municipal Forecasts Update

Household-Based Model Assumptions

BEBR’s forecasts by population age are converted to countywide household

forecasts. Assigned to TAZ based on interaction betweenThe change in the countywide household-size distribution through forecast periods;The established TAZ-level distribution of households; andThe capacity of each TAZ to absorb additional housing units. Generally based on the Land Use Plan and vacant land capacity.Slide6

II. BEBR Population

Forecast

BEBR annually projects population for Florida and its counties.

The percentage change between 2012 and 2040 is approximately 14.8%.County population growth is projected to average 10,000 annually through 2025 and 8,800 for the remainder of the period.Growth is dramatically lower than County’s historic growth which averaged 20,000 or more annually between 1970 and 2005.Slide7

II. BEBR Population Forecast

Broward Amongst Other Counties

Most of the future growth will continue to occur primarily in the most populous counties.

Through 2040, Miami-Dade and Broward Counties remain 1st and 2nd. Slide8

II. BEBR Population Forecast

Broward Amongst Other Counties

Much of Florida’s population growth

(25% or nearly 1.7 million additional people by 2040) will be seen in a swath crossing the middle portion of the Florida Peninsula, including Orange, Hillsborough, Polk, Pasco and Osceola Counties. Slide9

II. BEBR Population Forecast

Reflections on Recent History

Past growth was accommodated

by the County’s supply of ample vacant developable land. By 2005, nearly all the vacant developable land in the County was built out. Future growth now is primarily dependent on redevelopment.Slide10

III.

BEBR

Forecast by Age for Broward County

By 2040, the number of residents ages 70 and greater is projected to more than double the 2012 count.

184,061

376,356Slide11

III. BEBR

Forecast by Age for Broward County

I

mpacts from age cohort changes become more apparent as groups are consolidated.Slide12

III

. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County

Impacts

from within the age cohortsTotal “School Age” population remains relatively stable. “New Householders” generally increases over the forecast, though there are a couple of periods of stagnation or even slight declines.

“Peak Earners” cohort trends downward as the workforce is eroded through life events (retirement)

By 2040, the baby-boom cohort is decreased by more than half of its 2012 size.Slide13

III. BEBR Forecast by Age for Broward County

Impacts from within the age cohorts

Baby-Boomer households

downsizing will compete against new household creation and have impacts on the need for health care services, placing increasing demands on Medicare and Medicaid while reducing the number of wage-earners and associated tax revenues.While the population gradually increases, the number of people generally considered as potential participants in the labor force remains constant through 2025 and declines thereafter. Relatively fewer dollars circulating in the economy.Slide14

QUESTIONSSlide15

IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder

Principal component in determining the number of households is the age distribution of the population.

The

Forecast Percentages reflect a weighted average of twice the 2000 percentages and one of the 2010. Slide16

IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder

Broward County Householders by Age

Group calculated by applying the forecasted percentage of householders as percent of age

group applied to population by age groups.Slide17

IV. Broward County Households by Age of Householder

Most rapid household increases occur during the current five-year period.

As the baby-boomer

household numbers decline from their peak, there may be an oversupply of larger family homes awaiting occupancy.Doubling of the 65 and older households while the 45 to 64 age group gradually declines.Forecasts portend housing unit growth at a more subdued pace than County experienced during nearly the entire last half century.Inside the County’s Householders by Age ForecastSlide18

V. Broward County Households by Household Size

Represents

the average household size distribution for the County according to the identified age groups and household size for the years 2015-2040.

Percentages calculated using the Census 2000 from Summary File 1 for the County. 2010 percentages were estimated from the 2000 distribution rates and calibrated to the 2010 actual distribution.

Both rates were combined

using a weighted average of twice the 2000 percentages and one of the 2010. Slide19

V. Broward County Households by Household Size

Displays the

results of the distribution percentages applied to the forecast

households.Contains the household and housing unit information to be assigned to Broward’s TAZs. Key Findings

94% of household growth from 2010 to 2040 is found in the smaller households. This can be traced back to the growth in householders ages 75 and older, which can account for nearly all household growth beginning with year 2020.

Mid-size households increases are minor and larger households decline over the forecast period. Slide20

V. Broward County Households by Household Size

Key Findings (continued)

Empty-nesting

baby-boom generation will impact Broward’s housing market. Whether decide to live in their current homes with extra rooms or to “downsize” to smaller homes. If enough downsize, there will be a significant demand for smaller homes and an excess of larger homes.If fewer households downsize, the impact likely would be to encourage redevelopment in more selective areas. Slide21

V. Broward County Households by Household Size

P

resents household size table from

a different perspective, the population according to household size. While smaller households occupy the majority of housing units; more of the population resides in mid-size households (3-, 4-, or 5-person households), through 2020 slightly more than 50% and slightly less thereafter.**Note: Household Population = the number of 1-person households + (2 * the number of 2-person households) + (3 * the number of 3-person households) +…+ (7.83, average size of the 7+ households* the number of 7+ households)Slide22

VI. Assignment

of Dwelling Units,

Households

and Household Population to TAZsThis stage of allocation occurs into the Broward County’s 2010 TAZ boundaries (953 unique geographic areas).Distributed to TAZs by a methodology that respects the individual TAZ’s unique set of selected characteristics and its capacity to accept growth. Allocation requires that each TAZ be assigned a maximum number of dwelling units. This maximum reflects the influence of the Broward County Land Use Plan (amendments and current designations) and vacant land capacity.

Served as the stage in the 2012 forecasts for the input from the 2012 Population Roundtable process. Input included:

Estimated maximums for TAZs that contain Regional Activity Centers, Local Activity Centers, Transportation Oriented Corridors or other irregular Land Use Plan designations; andIdentification

of TAZs for “redevelopment” since vacant residential lands are exhausted by 2025.Slide23

VI. Assignment of Dwelling Units, Households

and Household Population to TAZs

Assignment

methodology for TAZsStep 1. Determine #of households by size & vacant units required by next forecast year:

Convert existing household size distribution for each TAZ to reflect anticipated countywide

change distribution for coming forecast year.

Step 2. Determine attractiveness

of each TAZ to

accept growth:

Vacant land capacity, land use plan and

its existing

housing inventory.

Step 3. Determine household size distribution of the additional units for each TAZ:

Based on unique distribution of household characteristics, businesses in area, and nearby public services.

Step 4. Determine preliminary total of households by size assigned to each TAZ:

Matrix

of

percentages of

future growth by household size

for each TAZ.

Step 5. Enforce

TAZ unit

maximums:

TAZs exceeding maximum have excess units apportioned

by

household

size; subtracted

from the TAZ

; and

added into pool

of households to be

re-distributed.Slide24

VII. Municipal

Forecast of Dwelling Units, Households, and Population

Arranging the TAZ forecast data into its proper jurisdiction and compiling the numbers creates the municipal forecast. Methodology for assigning TAZs to jurisdictions Step 1. Assign TAZs to local jurisdictions: 2012 municipal boundary map superimposed onto a TAZ boundary map creates a TAZ-to- jurisdiction cross reference

Step 2. Apportion

TAZs among multiple jurisdictions: 2010 Census Block

data combined with aerial photography were used to establish the portions of the TAZ forecasts assigned to each jurisdiction

Step 3. Benchmark

the TAZ assignments to the 2010

Census:

R

eview compiled

forecast data to see if differences greater than 1%

existed.

Step

4

. Assign

Group Quarters

Population:

Census 2010 rate of 0.97% applied to total population yields group quartersSlide25

Final Products of the Broward County 2014 TAZ and

Municipal

Forecasts Update

Two Principal products of the forecastsA shapefile and series of Excel Worksheets:BasicTAZdata2014-DRAFT: Table organizing TAZ-level forecasts  by Dwelling Units, Population ,and Households for 2010-2040 in 5-year increments.

Muni_TAZ_2014-DRAFT:

Set of tables displaying the final distribution of housing and population to Broward County's local jurisdictions by

TAZ.

HouseholdTAZdata2014-DRAFT

: 

Set

of tables

representing

TAZ -level forecasts  organized by housing

data.

TAZ_FinalForecast2014-DRAFT: 

Shapefile

of the file, BasicTAZdata2014-DRAFT.

2014 TAZ

and

Municipal

Forecasts

Update Report

Contains all tables referenced in presentationSlide26

Environmental Protection and Growth Management Department

Planning

and Redevelopment Division

115 South Andrews Avenue, Room 329KFort Lauderdale, FL 33301Broward.org/EnvironmentAndGrowth/954.357.6634