a study on crime in north Carolina from 20072009 Introduction 2 Introduction Conventional Wisdom street crime is countercyclical Controversy many exceptions 1982 year the worst postwar recession hit bottom ID: 252133
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Slide1
Crime and the Recent Financial Crisis
a study on crime in north Carolina from 2007-2009Slide2
Introduction
2Slide3
Introduction
Conventional Wisdom: “street” crime is countercyclical
Controversy: many exceptions
1982: year the worst postwar recession hit bottom
1960s: period of sustained economic growth and declining unemployment
3Slide4
Examples of Why might crime be linked to economic conditions
Legitimate Opportunities
Criminal
Opportunities
Use of
Criminogenic
Commodities
The
Criminal Justice System Response to Crime
4Slide5
Literature Review
5Slide6
Social Aspects of the Business Cycle – Thomas (1927)
Related various
detrended
measures of crime with an indicator of business conditions for Britain
Findings
Robbery and Burglary (-.44)
Larceny (-.25)
Violent Crimes (+.06)
6Slide7
An Economic Analysis of Crime and Punishment in England and Wales, 1894-1967
–
Wolpin
(1978)
Analyzed unemployment, GDP per capita, and weekly wage for manual manufacturing workers against crime data
Findings:
Robbery and burglary
Homicide
7Slide8
Crime and the Business Cycle
– Cook and
Zarkin
(1985)
“
For two important types of crimes, robbery and burglary, there is strong evidence of a countercyclical pattern.
Recessions do indeed increase the rate at which these crimes are committed.
These
conclusions are supported by both nonparametric and regression analysis of U.S. crime rates since 1933.”
8Slide9
What happened during the financial crisis of 2007-2009?
9Slide10
10 Year Crime trend in north Carolina
10
Source: North Carolina Department of JusticeSlide11
2007-2009: Decline in Crime in NC
11
Source: North Carolina Department of Justice, Census EstimatesSlide12
2007-2009: Decline in Crime in NC
12
Source: North Carolina Department of Justice, Census EstimatesSlide13
Why did crime not increase?
Drug Markets
1970’s: Heroin
Late 1980’s – Early 1990’s: Crack
Policing
Compstat
-type
accountability
systems
Real-time crime information
Target Hardening
Cell phones/cameras
New car security systems
13Slide14
Why did crime not increase?
Economic Stimulus
Economic stimulus spending, especially unemployment benefits
Declining Criminal
Opportunities
High unemployment rates -> occupied houses
People carry less cash/valuables
Demographics
Median age at highest point ever in 2010
Incarceration
US has highest incarceration rate
14