National Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council Google NEPEC USGS Terry E Tullis Brown University From NEPEC Charter Authority The Council is established under the Earthquake Hazards ID: 591953
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Slide1
NEPECNational Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (Google: NEPEC USGS)
Terry E. Tullis
Brown UniversitySlide2
From NEPEC CharterAuthority. The Council is established under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Authorization
Act of 1977 (42 U.S.C. § 7701
)
Objectives and Scope of Activities.
The Council provides advice and
recommendations to
the Director
of the
U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on earthquake predictions
and related
scientific research, in support of the Director's delegated responsibility under
the Stafford
Act (Public Law 93-288) to issue timely
warnings
of potential
geologic disasters.Slide3
Prediction Example that NEPEC EvaluatedIben Browning
Born January 18, 1918 Edna, Texas
Died July 18, 1991 (aged 73) Albuquerque, New Mexico
Nationality United States
Occupation scientist, climatologist
Known for erroneous earthquake prediction (for Dec 2-3, 1990)Slide4
From NEPEC CharterAuthority. The Council is established under the Earthquake Hazards Reduction Authorization
Act of 1977 (42 U.S.C. § 7701
)
Objectives and Scope of Activities.
The Council provides advice and
recommendations to the Director of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) on earthquake predictions and related scientific research, in support of the Director's delegated responsibility under
the Stafford
Act (Public Law 93-288) to issue timely
warnings
of potential
geologic disasters.Slide5
OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
NEPEC and SESAC raised the question:
Might the name raise false expectations
concerning our capabilities?Slide6
OPERATIONAL EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING
PREDICTION (Deterministic)
FORECAST
(Probabilistic)
OPERATIONAL
(Is Implemented)
NO
YES
Public INITIALLY Understands
YES
NO
This raises the importance of well designed publicity programs,
concerning what we can and cannot do, focused on both:
The public
The professional risk communitySlide7
Applications to Other Areas and DataPublic is less aware of earthquakes thereData are more sparseNo local CEPECs or NEPECs
Pacific NW
Could be non-earthquake events that raise concern
Need to think and prepare statements in advance
Central
and Eastern US