PDF-1IntroductionThecentralthemeofbusinesscycleanalysisistostudythereasons
buttheirrelativeimportancehaschangedovertimeWhilethemodelprovideswarningsignalsforthepost1990recessionsthesignalsespeciallyofthe2008recessionaresporadicandeasytomissTherestofthepaperproceedsasfollo
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