A Network Based Analysis of North Korean Refugees Capt Krysta Anthony LT Kevin Kerno Historical Background History of North Korea Human r ights issues What is the rest of the world doing North Korean Escapees ID: 138263
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Attempting Escape:A Network Based Analysis of North Korean Refugees
Capt Krysta Anthony
LT Kevin KernoSlide2
Historical BackgroundHistory of North KoreaHuman
r
ights issues
What is the rest of the world doing?Slide3
North Korean Escapees1,500 North Koreans escaped in 2012
So what’s the big deal?
Extremely arduous/perilous journey
Difficult to travel within in North Korea
GeographyGovernment agentsSex TraffickersKidnappersChina illegally deports North Korean refugees
Classifies North Korean refugees as “economic immigrants”Slide4
How does one escape?The “New Underground Railroad”Who is helping
What makes it up
How it works
Where do the refugees go?China first
Then exit into Mongolia and Southeast AsiaReaching South KoreaSlide5
General Escape RoutesSlide6
Map of North KoreaSlide7
Problem StatementWhat are the best routes for North Korean escapees to take when fleeing from North Korea?Slide8
Research QuestionsWhat is the shortest route an escapee can take to fully escape?
What is the safest route an escapee can take
?
What general route provides the highest likelihood of escape?
Where are the most likely points of interdiction both inside of North Korea and in China?How can resources be allocated to assist North Korean refugees escape?Slide9
Challenges in Creating NetworkLimited published information and dataMost information is word of mouth and anecdotal
Pieced multiple accounts and sources together
Utilized Google Earth
Utilized geographical data, topographical maps, and intuitionSlide10
Assumptions/Project Limitations
Three starting points in North Korea that represent southern, central, and northern regions
Considering a single escapee
All edge probabilities within North Korea are the same
Similar for border crossings and within ChinaOnly considered straight line distancesThe only escape paths out of NK are into ChinaIf in China, an escapee must escape to Mongolia or Southeast Asia to be considered safe
Average speed refugees moving is 10 km/hr for 14 hours per daySlide11
Overview of NetworkNodes: Cities, towns, villages, border crossing points, and airports in North Korea, China, Mongolia, and Southeast Asia
Edges: Straight line routes between the above nodes
Super
sink to Escape from Bangkok, Ulaanbaatar, Vientiane, Manila and
SeoulEdge Costs: Initially the straight line distance in kilometersThen assigned probabilities of evading authorities to each edgeSlide12
NetworkSlide13
Start Point: Haeju
Total Distance: 2244 km
Start Point: Kyo-Hwa-So 4
Total Distance: 2139 km
Start Point: Pungsan
Total Distance: 2279 km
Shortest Path Escape RouteSlide14
Analysis: Basic ModelShortest path routes in terms of distance from three starting points within North Korea
Results
All paths lead to Chinggis-Khaan International Airport in Mongolia
Refugee must travel over 2200 km
ConclusionAverage total travel time with no delays would be 17 daysTumen River crossing is longestSlide15
More Realistic Edge CostsScaled the overall edge lengths
To determine edge probabilities we took the following into account:
Where the edge is located (i.e. North Korea, China, between North Korea and China,
etc.)
What locations the edge is linkingThe overall edge length in kmRate of capture on an edge (percent):20%/hour: North Korea Edges
30%/hour: North Korea into China border crossing
10%/hour: China edgesSlide16
More Realistic Edge CostsTo generate edge probabilities we applied the following transformationSlide17
More Realistic Edge CostsWe then take the –ln of the probability of evading to use as our new edge costs:
Now, the goal is to maximize the overall probability of escapeSlide18
Probabilistic Escape Route
Start Point: Haeju
POE: 11.4%
Start Point: Kyo-Hwa-So 4
POE: 16.0%
Start Point: Pungsan
POE: 5.9%Slide19
Analysis: More Realistic ModelHighest probabilities of escaping from the three starting points
No interdiction
Results
Highest probability of escape: 16.0%
Lowest probability of escape: 5.9% ConclusionsAll escape routes through Capital International Airport in BeijingTumen River crossing most dangerousSlide20
InterdictionForms of attack
North Korean agents and government informants
Chinese agents and government informants
Kidnappers
Sex traffickersHuman trafficking organizationsModeled attacks on an edge by placing a “checkpoint” on that edgeSlide21
Implementing Attacks
“Checkpoint” encompasses all above forms of
attack
No “checkpoints” outside of China and North Korea
Checkpoints are not 100% effectiveEach “checkpoint” causes a 6-hour delayLooked at a varying number of checkpoints to determine effect on safest pathSlide22
Probabilistic Escape Routes with 5 Checkpoints
Start Point: Haeju
POE: 1.40%
Start Point: Kyo-Hwa-So 4
POE: 2.07%
Start Point: Pungsan
POE: 1.10%Slide23
Analysis: More Realistic Model with InterdictionHighest probabilities of escaping from the three starting
points with attacks
Results
Highest probability of escape:
2.04%Lowest probability of escape: 1.10%Non-nested solutionsConclusions
“Checkpoints” do not alter paths, only drastically decrease probability of escape
Tumen River crossing most dangerousSlide24
Operator Resilience CurveSlide25
Network DesignAdding resources to certain routes
Increasing probabilities of successful border crossing
Increasing the number of border
crossingsIncreasing the number of guides
Paying off government agentsWith more resources, more escapees could escape through Beijing airport Enhances their chances of escapeAvoids hundreds of miles of ground travelSlide26
Network Design: Additional Resources along Pungsan RouteSlide27
Conclusions and InsightsShortest path escape path greatly different than probability-based escape path
Tumen River Route
Longest of shortest path in distance
Most dangerous probabilistically
Addition of resources triples probability of escape Keys to increasing the probability of escape Get escapees to the Beijing airportAdd additional resources in ChinaSlide28
Additional Research OpportunitiesMore detailed/accurate network
Roads, railways, bus routes, etc.
Changing probabilities
Lower escape probabilities out of concentration camps
Vary probabilities in ChinaUse maximum flow to solve the problemFurther implementation of
n
etwork design aspectsSlide29
Questions