How much is health spending expected to grow? - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

How much is health spending expected to grow?Slide2

Source

: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group Note: 2015 projected growth rates are calculated using data from “NHE Projections 2014-2024 tables”

U.S. health care spending per capita has risen at historically low rates recently, but is expected to pick up

Average annual growth rate of health spending per capita for 1970’s – 1990’s;Annual change in actual health spending per capita 2000 – 2014 and projected health spending per capita (2015 – 2024) Slide3

Source

: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) Historical (1960-2014) and Projected (2014-2024) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group (Accessed on December 7, 2015) Note: 2014 to 2015 percent changes are calculated using 2014 and 2015 projected amounts.

Growth in prescription spending had slowed, but

increased rapidly in 2014 and 2015Average annual growth rate of prescription drug spending per capita for 1970’s – 1990’s;Annual change in actual prescription drug spending per capita 2000 – 2014 and projected prescription drug spending per capita 2015 - 2024Slide4

Source

: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group. Note: 2015 projected growth rates are calculated using data from “NHE Projections 2014-2024 tables”Per capita out-of-pocket spending grew slowly in 2014, but may pick up again starting in 2015

Average annual growth rate of health spending per capita for 1970’s – 1990’s;

Annual change in actual health spending 2000 – 2014 and projected health spending (2015– 2024) Slide5

Source

: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) Historical (1960-2014) and Projected (2014-2024) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group (Accessed on December 7, 2015) Out-of-pocket spending on hospital care fell in 2014, but grew for Rx drugs

Actual per capita out-of-pocket health spending 2000 – 2014, and projected per capita out-of-pocket health spending (2015 – 2024)

on hospitals, physicians and clinics, and retail prescription drugs Slide6

Source

: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics GroupAn annual percentage point difference in growth rates makes a very large difference in spending over time

Projected

annual change in U.S. per capita health spending 2015– 2024,

alternative scenariosSlide7

Source

: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics GroupHealth spending projections are now lower than previous projections

CMS projections of national health expenditures, in US $ billions, predicted based on baseline yearSlide8

Source

: Kaiser Family Foundation analysis of National Health Expenditure (NHE) data from Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics GroupLong-term health spending is difficult to project

CMS projections of national health expenditures, predicted based on baseline year