Research findings for immigration border issues

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Center for Comparative Immigration Studies. University of California, San Diego. Edited by Michael . Stefanko. Key Developments in Border Enforcement Policy. 1986 . Immigration . Reform and Control Act. ID: 221063 Download Presentation

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Research findings for immigration border issues




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Slide1

Research findings for immigration border issues

Center for Comparative Immigration Studies

University of California, San Diego

Edited by Michael

Stefanko

Slide2

Key Developments in Border Enforcement Policy

1986

Immigration

Reform and Control Act

1990

Immigration

Act of 1990

1993

Operation

Hold the Line; El Paso, TX

1994

Operation

Gatekeeper; San Diego, CA

1995

Operation

Safeguard; Nogales, AZ

1996

Operation

Rio Grande; Southeast TX

2006

Secure

Border Initiative

Secure

Fence Act

Operation

Jumpstart

Operation Streamline

(

Sisco

and

Hicken

, Chapter 2 in Four Generations, 2009)

Slide3

Some Basic Figures

The following are from an article in press: (

Hicken

,

Fischbein

, Lisle) regarding a survey of

Tlacuitapenses

Between 1992 and 2008 the number of person-hours of border agents increased by a factor of four , the annual enforcement budget increased from $1 billion to $9.5 billion

Looked at two effects: remote deterrence and physical deterrence

Unauthorized Mexican residents increased from 2.5 million in 1996 to 7 million in 2007-2010

Slide4

More basics

Number of unauthorized immigrants has decreased significantly in the current economic climate

Remote deterrence

: evidence mixed – self-reported (

Tlacuitapense

) intention to migrate down, but reasons cited are more gang violence and banditry than border enforcement

Physical deterrence

: 9 of 10 surveyed succeeded ; clandestine entry through ports of entry more expensive but safer than through deserts

Slide5

Predictors of Intent to Migrate

VariableModel 1Model 2Model 3Model 4Model 5Model 6Age1.0630.9541.0391.0741.0690.943Age 20.99810.9990.9980.9981Male3.062***3.020***2.879***3.114***3.034***2.851***Has ever migrated to the US5.132***4.880***5.156***4.924***5.164***4.714***Married0.540.5060.5170.5060.5510.449Has Children0.326***0.355**0.347**0.341**0.324***0.396**Number of family in the US1.221***1.224***1.217***1.213***1.218***1.210***Wealth in Mexico3.9273.5764.1244.094.0084.375Knows someone who died2.823**3.219**Very Dangerous to cross0.5440.496*Difficult to Cross2.4932.921Knowledge of Border Enforcement0.9310.919constant0.016*0.040.0340.006**0.015*0.029N358357355350358349r2_p0.1830.2020.190.190.1840.221

Robust predictors: male, previous migration, no children, family in US

Slide6

Physical Deterrence

Apprehended 44 percent of the time between 2002 and 2010

Over 90 percent eventually succeed in crossing

Factors predicting success (from a regression analysis): previous migration experience, month crossed (Oct-Dec) , running out of money

Non-significant factors: gender, location, port of entry or not, with a coyote

Major effect: increases in line-watch hours is matched by increases in coyote fees (more demand for coyote services)

Slide7

Methods of Entry

Mode of Entry1965-1986 1986-1993 1994-20012002-2010OverallWalking60.5%52.4%57.4%60.0%57.9%Swimming23.2%11.9%14.9%3.1%12.2%Hidden in Vehicle0.0%16.7%6.4%21.5%12.2%Fake/Borrowed Documents9.3%14.3%19.1%12.3% 13.7%Other7.0%4.8%2.1%3.1%4.1%N=43N=42N=47N=65N=197

Legal ports of entry: safer, less likely to be apprehended (averaged of 0.5 times versus 0.9 times), more expensive (average fee $3,314 – N=17, versus average coyote fee of $1,791 – N= 37 for desert/mountains

Family in US can fund crossings at ports of entry

For desert/mountains: More concern about Mother Nature and bandits than fence or Border Patrol/National Guard

80 percent of those surveyed in

Tlacuitapa

knew someone who had died in a border crossing

Slide8

Change in Migration Pattern

Increased enforcement is leading to longer stays in the US

Longer stays means male heads of household are bringing dependents to US sooner

US-born children and wives are strong supporters of staying permanently

More than one-third of those surveyed (1 in 10 of undocumented) owned property in the US

Erratic enforcement of interior policies (such as against businesses) does not effect underlining incentive structure for migrating


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