Michael Rogan ISER Rhodes University 23 March 2017 Policy National Development Plan Increase of gross enrolments from 950000 in 2010 to 16 million in 2030 a 70 increase ID: 558747
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Slide1
Study choices and job matching among graduates from two Eastern Cape universities
Michael RoganISER- Rhodes University23 March, 2017Slide2
Policy:
National Development Plan:
Increase of gross enrolments from 950,000 in 2010 to
1,6 million in 2030, a 70% increaseUniversity science and mathematics entrants to increase three-fold by 2030Increase graduation rates to 25% (of total enrolment)
Envisages an increase in higher education enrolments from 17.9% in 2012 to 25% by 2030Slide3
Objectives:
1) Graduate unemployment:Linked with study choices?Or linked with ‘non-HE’ factors such as social networks, schooling disadvantages
3) Job matching:Which graduates find the ‘right jobs’?Are study choices associated with working in a ‘graduate job’?Slide4
The Eastern Cape Study:
Tracer study of the 2010 and 2011 cohorts from the University of Fort Hare (HDI)and Rhodes University (HAI) who graduated with a Bachelor’s degreeStratified (by subjects and institution) probability sample of 1,211 graduates representing the total population of 4,927 graduatesResponse rates of 39% and 47% per cent, respectivelyFieldwork = online survey and telephonic interviewsSlide5
Graduate UnemploymentSlide6
Figure 1: Broad
unemployment rates (as of March 1
st
), by field of study
Notes: The data are weighted. Slide7
Figure
2: The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by university (main effects) Slide8
Figure
3:
The correlates (log odds) of graduate unemployment, by
university (interaction terms)Slide9
Rhodes University
SET
Business/ Commerce
Education
Humanities
Total
Employment agency
13.16
(4.06)
12.73
(3.58)
0.00
(0.00)
7.25
(1.87)
9.84
(1.61)
Relatives
6.04
(2.66)
5.15
(2.12)
0.00
(0.00)
7.75
(1.92)
6.59
(1.27)
Linked to bursary
1.55
(1.54)
4.43
(2.27)
0.00
(0.00)
2.10
(1.04)
2.63
(0.89)
Social media4.96(2.46)15.08(3.97)21.05(18.05)11.82(2.32)11.56(1.74)Personal contacts21.02(4.56)27.07(4.56)27.63(18.35)34.12(3.41)29.56(2.38)Newspaper8.76(3.91)9.78(3.44)60.53(18.99)11.08(2.24)10.86(1.71)Campus recruitment3.77(2.17)8.69(2.90)6.58(6.66)5.23(1.61)5.95(1.24) University of Fort HareEmployment agency0.00(0.00)4.50(1.57)0.00(0.00)1.62(0.80)1.92(0.56)Department of Labour10.03(3.18)6.16(1.89)11.90(5.62)8.82(1.80)8.68(1.28)Relatives1.21(1.20)3.08(1.36)1.82(1.81)3.42(1.22)2.79(0.73)Linked to bursary12.11(3.44)4.92(1.70)21.56(6.59)15.48(2.32)12.91(1.52)Social media5.84(2.54)7.84(2.09)0.00(0.00)4.36(1.29)4.99(0.91)Personal contacts8.39(2.86)13.84(2.66)7.84(3.82)11.78(2.15)11.32(1.37)Newspaper36.62(5.04)40.69(3.87)20.55(6.08)37.50(3.13)36.23(2.10)Campus recruitment8.82(2.99)4.16(1.55)3.30(3.23)4.75(1.34)5.08(0.96)
Table 1: Means of finding employment (among employees)Slide10
Job MatchingSlide11
Figure 4: Job
matching status among employed graduates, by institution (%)
Note: The data are weighted
.Slide12
Rhodes
Fort Hare
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
(6)
Female
0.0899
(0.174)
0.0408
(0.182)
-0.00104
(0.189)
-0.0286
(0.145)
0.0536
(0.155)
0.0347
(0.160)
Black
-0.266
(0.180)
-0.317*
(0.190)
-0.260
(0.192)
---
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Schooling
Low quintile
0.359*
(0.208)
0.335
(0.216)
0.321
(0.217)
0.362**
(0.153)
0.434***(0.160)0.425**(0.170)Higher grade math or science-0.195(0.178)-0.207(0.188)-0.227(0.197)-0.193(0.275)-0.226(0.296)-0.125(0.314)Higher educationSET degree-0.167(0.232)-0.242(0.246)0.0111(0.216)-0.0831(0.228)Commerce degree-0.167(0.230)-0.160(0.230)0.367**(0.169)0.231(0.181)Distinction-0.120(0.293)-0.303(0.312)0.238(0.280)0.0866(0.305)Employment characteristicsPublic sector-0.256(0.266)-0.116(0.177)Part-time-0.0233(0.275)0.551*(0.282)Permanent-0.466**(0.195)-0.399**(0.168)_cons-1.239***(0.212)-1.133***(0.227)-0.718***(0.260)-1.375***(0.152)-1.505***(0.187)-1.166***(0.250)(unweighted) N376368354504437418Table 2: The correlates of being overqualified (estimation by probit)Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. The data are weighted. Marginal effects reported. Slide13
Conclusions:
Study choice has limited impact on employment or job matchingDisadvantages in schooling quality carrying over into the labour market (even for successful graduates)Several possible points of efficiencies/blockages
Signalling vs. matching/social networking?