Dr Phil Davidson April 12 2018 Research Methodology SIG Welcome to the Delphi Technique Agenda Characteristics of the Delphi Technique Origins of the Delphi Technique Theoretical Framework ID: 672322
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Slide1
The Delphi Techniquean Overview byDr. Phil DavidsonApril 12, 2018
Research Methodology SIGSlide2
Welcome to the
Delphi Technique
Agenda:
Characteristics of the Delphi Technique
Origins of the Delphi Technique
Theoretical Framework
The Methodology
Obstacles Faced by Students and Faculty
Application Examples of the Delphi process
Different types of Delphi designs
Q&ASlide3
Characteristics of the Delphi Technique
“Delphi is the name of a set of procedures for eliciting and refining [a consensus of] opinions of a group of people. In practice, the procedures would be used with a group of experts or especially knowledgeable individuals” (Dalkey, 1967, p. 1).
Turoff and Linstone (1975) added to the definition of Delphi, describing it as “A method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem” (Linstone, & Turoff, 1975, p. 3).
Qualifier
: The Delphi Technique seeks
consensus
of a group of experts, but the actual research focuses on anonymity of the participants to one another to avoid issues of pressure or groupthink.Slide4
Origins of the Delphi Technique
“Delphi” referring to the important oracle in ancient Greece, located in Delphi.
Delphic Oracle was the voice of the Apollo.
Forecasts of future events.
1950’s:RAND Corporation under direction of the U.S. Air Force
, develop the Delphi Technique. Purpose? To
FORECAST
how many atomic bombs Russia would have to deliver to completely destabilize the U.S. infrastructure.
Qualifier
: "The key purpose for using the Delphi method remains the collection of informed judgment on issues that are
largely unexplored, difficult to define,
highly context and expertise specific, [and] future-oriented" (Fletcher & Marchildon, 2014, p. 3).Slide5
Theoretical Framework
Prediction theory
is the theoretical framework supporting research using the Delphi Technique.
Kaplan, Skogstad, and Girshick (1950), relied heavily on the work of McGregor (1938), and Cantril (1938), but focused primarily on the process of improvement of prediction.
Kaplan et al. focused on precision of prediction and how that might be improved. The theoretical foundation of the accuracy of prediction (prediction theory) appears to depend on a wide set of variables, including the individual and that individual’s knowledge background, preferences, and biases [back to the issues of experts and expertise].
McGregor (1938). McGregor examined the concept of predictions as a form of psychological inference.
Cantril (1938) elaborated on McGregor’s work, dealing with the issue of validity and the certainty of predictions. Slide6
The Methodology
A tool to use for forecasting possible future solutions for problems that are unclear or data is missing. Usually considered a qualitative tool.Slide7
Obstacles Faced by Students and Faculty
Future focused
Delphi is
not
appropriate if the problem is clear and the student wants to determine “best methods.”
Expertise of panel members
One of the biggest challenges is finding experts. I may spend more time vetting my expert panel than actually doing the research. Students frequently want to used “experienced” rather than “expert” participants. The Nominal Group Technique may be a better choice in those situations.
Interaction of student research to expert panel
The student researcher needs to be an active participant with the panel, adding new information, and collating information between rounds.
Validation of questionnaires
Delphi commonly uses questionnaires. How will student validate those?Slide8
Application of the Delphi Technique
Roßmann et al. (2017). Big Data Analytics and SCM to 2035
Gordon and Pease (2006). Real Time DelphiKeller & Von der Gracht (2014). Classical Delphi focused on Information communication technology (ICT) to the year 2020.Slide9
Different Delphi Techniques
(not complete)Slide10
Baker, J., Lovell, K., & Harris, N. (2006). How expert are the experts? An exploration of the concept of 'expert' within Delphi panel techniques.
Nurse Researcher, 14(1), 59-70.
Cantril, H. (1938). The prediction of social events.
The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 33
(3), 364-389. doi:10.1037/h0063206
Dalkey, N. C. (1967, October 11-12).
Delphi.
Paper presented at the Long Range Forecasting Methodology, Alamogordo, NM.
Fletcher, A. J., & Marchildon, G. P. (2014). Using the Delphi method of qualitative, participatory action research in health leadership.
International Journal of Qualitative Methods, 13
(2014), 1-18.
Gordon, T., & Pease, A. (2006). RT Delphi: An efficient, “round-less” almost real time Delphi method.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 73(4), 321-333. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2005.09.005
Kaplan, A., Skogstad, A. L., & Girshick, M. A. (1950). The prediction of social and technological events.
The Public Opinion Quarterly, 14
(1), 93-110
Keller, J., & Von der Gracht, H. A. (2014). The influence of information and communication technology (ICT) on future foresight processes — Results from a Delphi survey.
Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 85, 81-92. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.010
Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975).
The Delphi method: Techniques and applications
. Boston, MA: Addison Wesley Publishing.
McGregor, D. (1938). The major determinants of the prediction of social events.
The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 33
(2), 179-204. doi:10.1037/h0062931
McKenna, H. P., Keeney, S., & Hasson, F. (2011). The Delphi Technique in nursing and health research. Chichester, UK: John Wiley and Sons.
Roßmann, B., Canzaniello, A., Gracht, H. v. d., & Hartmann, E. (2017). The future and social impact of big data analytics in supply chain management: Results from a Delphi study [in press].
Technological Forecasting & Social Change. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2017.10.005
Sackman, H. (1975).
Delphi critique.
Lexington, MA: Lexington Books
.Slide11
Q&A SessionSlide12
Upcoming Research Methodology SIG Webinars
Date
Topic
Leader
April 26
Mix Methods
Dr. Ryan Rominger
May 10
Quantitative Experimental
Dr. Brian Sloboda
June 21
Quantitative Non-experimental
Dr. Armando Paladino and
Dr. Ruzanna Topchyan
July 19
Phenomenology
Dr. Karen Johnson
August 16
Auto Ethnography
Dr. Jim Lane
September 13
Grounded Theory
Dr. Mark McCaslin
September 27
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Dr. Ryan Rominger and
Dr. Jim Lane
October 11
Quantitative Measure Development of SurveysChara PriceNovember 8Action ResearchDr. Mansureh KebritchiWebinar Times are 4-5 PM Phoenix Time.
Upcoming Research Methodology SIG Webinars