Yasko - PowerPoint Presentation

Slide1

Yasko Kasai, National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT)/ Tokyo Institute of Technology/The ministry of internal affairs and CommunicationsSetsuko Aoki, Keio University, Akiko Okamatsu, Hosei UniversityMasami Onoda, the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA)/ the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES) Akiko Aizawa, National Institute of Informatics The PEOIC project is under the Research Institute of Science and Technology for Society (RISTEX) in the Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST)

Policy and Earth Observation Innovation Cycle (PEOIC) projectSlide2

Guidelines for the Advisory BoardPEOIC is under the JST “R&D Program: Science of Science, Technology and Innovation Policy” https://www.ristex.jp/EN/examin/stipolicy/index.htmlThe Program states that “Indeed, in science, technology and innovation (STI) policy to date, problems have been encountered not infrequently. Sometimes R&D investment has been made without adequate objective evidence. Other times, although great insights have been gained through basic research, the research outcomes have not been applied in an effective fashion so that they lead to innovations or the creation of systems to resolve challenges and advance society. Yet other times, outstanding policy ideas have been conceived, but they have not been implemented due to insufficient communication with the public. The root cause of this was the absence of clear, evidence-based methods to create STI policy.To remedy this situation, our program aims to develop methods to formulate the following kinds of policies;Policies that will lead to the resolution of real challenges by advancing the basic research and applying the research outcomes to the challenges andPolicies that will promote the innovation of society by drawing on basic research.In this endeavor, it will be criticalTo design a multistage process from basic research, to social application of outcomes, to evaluation of that application;

To develop methods for measuring the economic and social impact of R&D investment;To build an effective research framework to form policies based on objective evidence; andTo ensure proper communication among policy makers, the scientific community and the public in order to promote the application of research findings in society. Slide3

Objective of the Program:To contribute over the medium to long term to evidence-based policy formation in the area of STI through the following approaches;Promoting R&D projects on new analytic methodologies, models, data-systematization tools and aggregate indicators that can be used in actual policy,Increasing the number of researchers who work on this challenge in a wide range of disciplines and interdisciplinary fields, and expanding the community network through public relations and dialogue on the activities.Slide4

The PEOIC Project aims at:In general:We are seeking to identify generic models, criteria or recommendations that might prompt organisations/agencies that are working on missions to consider the connection of science and technology to environmental policy in the design and concept phases.Primarily interested in the environmental policy domains …Wish to understand how science and technology (in particular EO) has (and can in the future) influence decision-makers and societal policy. Interested in specific examples.Target is to perform an assessment of the impact of satellite observations on environmental policy and use this information to propose a mission that would achieve an “innovation cycle”, whereby the assessment would feed back to new innovation for next-generation observation technology, thus contributing to global policy demand for information. Slide5

 For the workshop:The goal of the workshop is to propose a preliminary method/set of criteria/recommendations to provide evidence-based evaluation in order to guide the development of new missionsAB members are asked to present on the relationship between EO and decision-making/societal policy in their fields of work, to identify topics for the publication and to stimulate discussion amongst the groupAB members will be involved in two discussion sessions to define the goals, planned outcomes, structure, content, required inputs, and schedule for the publication. For the publication:We are aiming to address the gap in knowledge related to the impact of satellite Earth observations on enhanced societal policies.The publication will summarise, for the first time, the current state of work in the field of studies on the policy impact of satellite EO.We plan to publish a preliminary method/set of criteria/recommendations to provide evidence-based evaluation guide the

development of new missions.AB members will contribute chapters based on their input to the workshop – shaped by the discussions at the workshop.Slide6

PolicySatellite observationMiningEvaluation

Research Flow

Inversion analysis

Data bases

Statistical approach

evaluationSlide7

Policy Group Setsuko Aoki, Professor, Faculty of Policy Management, Keio UniversityAkiko Okamatsu, Professor, Faulty of Humanity and Environment, Hosei UniversityHiroko Sasaki, Ocean Division, Int’l Legal Affairs Bureau, Ministry of Foreign Affairs Slide8

1 Methodology of the study1 Goal: to find the correlation between a certain environmental policy and space-based imagery Selection of some issues likely to find a strong relationship if not correlation (1) the protection of the ozone layer legal regime to control the produce, use and transfer the ozone depleting substances (ODS) under the Vienna Convention/Montreal Protocol “the single most successful international agreement to date” (2) The Arctic region

2 Arctic policy and satellite-based data and information

3 Possible other subjects could be used to make a model

8Slide9

1 The protection of ozone layer and satellite data 1 1985 (1988) Vienna Convention for the Protection of Ozone Layer 2 1987 (1989) Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone layer *4 amendments: 1990, 1992, 1997, 1999 *6 adjustments: 1990, 1992, 1995, 1997, 1999, 2007 9

?Slide10

Path to the legal regime of the ozone layer protection yearEvents (scientific, social events Late 19c- 1930s increasing capabilities to measure the volume of the ozone around the globe and to find the relationship between the chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), ozone layer and the health impacts 1974 Prof. Rowland & Dr.

Molina: Freon gas depletes the ozone layer. An article in “Nature” 1975

The first

WMO

intergovernmental scientific statement :warning of the danger to the ozone layer

1977

“World Plan of Action on the Ozone Layer“ adopted in the

UNEP

.

1978

USA banned the use of the CFCs.

TOMS sensor

since November 1978

1981

Governing council of UNEP formed an ad hoc legal and technical working group to draft a Framework Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer.

1985

Vienna Convention for the Protection of Ozone Layer adopted.

1987

Montreal Protocol on Substances that deplete the Ozone layerSlide11

Established and establishing rules to control ODS Slide12

What is provided for? *Vienna Convention (197 Parties) = to take appropriate measures --- to protect human health and the environment against adverse effects resulting or likely to result from human activities which modify or are likely to modify the ozone layer. *Montreal Protocol (197 Parties) regulates the production and use of CFCs, halons, and carbon tetrachloride, which are all greenhouse gases. States parties shall totally phase out ODS in accordance with the schedule. adjustment the advancement of such time guidelines

amendment adding new regulations including adding new substances to control to the Montreal Protocol Slide13

Year MOPEntered into forceContents of the Amendment 1990MOP21992Adding the following controlled substances Chlorofluorocarbon (CFCs; CFC-13, 111, 112, 211, 212, 213, 214, 215, 216, 217);Carbon tetrachloride 1,1,1-trichloroethane (methyl chloroform) ; Adding Hydrochlorofluorocarbons

(HCFCs) to the transitional substances1992MOP41994

Replacing HCFCs (

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons

) as the controlled substances.

Adding the following controlled substances;

Hydrobromofluorocarbons

(HBFC),

Methyl bromide

1997

MOP9

1999

Banning the import and export of Methyl bromide from and to non-Parties

Controlling of trade with Parties; Establishing a system for licensing the import and export of new, used, recycled and reclaimed controlled substances

1999

MOP11

2002

Adopting

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons

(HCFCs) to the control of production and tradeAdding Bromochloromethane to the controlled substances; Banning the import and export of

Bromochloromethane

from and to non-Parties Providing to the Secretariat statistical data on the annual amount of the Methyl bromide

AmendmentSlide14

yearMOPEntered into force Contents of the Adjustment 1990MOP21991Adopting the severer level of production and consumption of the following controlled substances; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs; CFC 11, 12, 113, 114, 115); Halons (Halon 1211, 1301, 2402)

1992MOP41993Accelerating the schedule of controlling the following substances; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), Halons, Other Fully Halogenated CFCs, Carbon Tetrachloride 1, 1, 1-

Trichloroethane

(Methyl Chloroform)

1995

MOP7

1996

Accelerating the schedule of controlling the following substances;

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons

(HCFC);- Methyl bromide.

Adopting the schedule of the following controlled substances with respect to developing countries; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFC), Halon; -Carbon Tetrachloride; -1, 1, 1-

Trichloroethane

(Methyl Chloroform). Adopting the following controlled substances with respect to developing countries .

Hydrobromofluorocarbons

(HBFC); -

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons

(HCFC), Methyl bromide

1997

MOP9

1998Accelerating the schedule of controlling Methyl bromide

1999

MOP11

2000

Adopting the schedule of the following controlled substances in order to satisfy the basic domestic needs of developing countries; Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), Halons, Other fully halogenated CFCs, Methyl bromide

2007

MOP19

2008

Accelerating the schedule of controlling

Hydrochlorofluorocarbons

(HCFCs)

AdjustmentSlide15

Research of the the documents: Vienna Convention COP/ Montreal Protocol MOP and Ozone Research Managers (ORM), etc.Slide16

Promising findings Among the various reports, those by the Ozone Research Managers (ORM) best portray the role played by the satellite mission instruments. From the reports available, more and more importance and effectiveness of the satellite data is recognized by increased number of countries (comparative studies of national reports, etc.)Satellite data is indispensable to i) enhance the accuracy of the ground observation by comparison and ii) areas where few reliable ground observing facility exists (e.g. Mongolia) Slide17

Promising finding of satellite data and the evolving control through the Montreal Protocol and its amendments/adjustments many national reports of the Ozone Research Managers (ORM) commonly state that the comparison between satellite-based observations and ground-based ones (esp. Brewer- Dobson measuring system) indispensable. (finding)Without satellite data, reliable data cannot be obtained, especially for the large-area ozone column calculation. Slide18

Latest (2014) ORM meeting reports: Combination of the Satellite datasets, simulation and ground-based observation (Dobson-Brewer) should now be possible for the i) accurate calculation of the emission of the ODS and ii) Measuring the important emerging ODS replacement substances (such as HFCs)

These two factors can influence the new regulations within the Montreal Protocol scheme. Slide19

2 Future consideration The arctic regime is in the midst of making for the mid-21st century.While it is in a premature phase, satellite-data could be made use of for adopting a certain policy over the other policies. A few examples of mission instruments used OCO-2; SAGE-III; AMSR-E/Aqua; AMSR-2/Aqua PALSAR/ALOS-1 (JAXA)（Private company (weather news) WNISAT-1) Slide20

Data mining Group　Tomohiro Sato, Yasuko Kasai, (NICT)Akiko Aizawa (NII)Slide21

Approach is:Coordinate texts that have different categories/fields/languages by Topic Analysis Ex 1: Policy document vs Paper of satellite observation EX 2: Science article vs News paper EX 3: English vs JapaneseDocument(Policy)

Science article(Satellite obs.)

First example: Ozone layer depletion

CEOS

database

WMO/UNEP Scientific Assessments of Ozone

Depletion

etc

UNEP Meeting of the Parties (MOP) to the Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone

etc

Quantification

Objective of this Group:

Quantification

of relationship between P

olicy

and

Satellite ObservationSlide22

Example of Topic Analysis(UNEP/WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2010)Topic 7th:ozone simulation UV % change future model column level total projection century effect return irradiance scenario 21st Esc aerosol climate

Topic 8th:ozone UV datum trend measurement total % irradiance JPL satellite model observation value solar cloud cross ground-based Clo polar radiation

Latent

Dirichlet

Allocation (LDA)

[

Blei

et al., 2003]

Extraction of Topics that are relevant to the document

. . .

. . .

Projection of ozone in 21

st

century

General of ozone observation

“Let it be” is my favorite song.

John Lennon and Paul McCartney are best musicians.

The Beatles

TopicSlide23

Key Topics in WMO and MOP reports(Topics that include the word “ozone”)1985 1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1994

1995

1997

1998

1999

2002

2006

2010

2014

Atmospheric chemistry, Future prediction

Antarctic ozone loss

Chlorine species as

CFC

UV

and ozone,

Bromine

species

Climate change, Long-term trend

Recovery, Arctic

Antarctic and Arctic ozone loss

Chlorine

/

bromine

species,

UV

Long-term trend

Scenario of climate change in the 21C

Montreal Protocol

international cooperation

CFC

, Halon, Agreement

Chlorine

and

bromine

species

Phase-out,

CFC

,

bromine

Ozone depleting substances, Multilateral

Accordance, alternative, phase-out,

UV

< WMO report >

< MOP report >

(We picked up important five reports.)

“

CFC

” and “

bromine

” are the keywords

to connect WMO and MOP reports.Slide24

How to quantify: Correlation of TopicsAn example: Scientific paper (CiNii) vs Newspaper (Nikkei)

Keywords:CFC,

refrigeratorSlide25

Summary and future works(of Information Processing Group)Objective: Quantification of relationship between Policy and Satellite ObservationUsing Latent

Dirichlet Allocation, Topics are extracted from the documents.

“CFC” and “bromine ” are the keywords that are included in both Topics

(WMO and MOP)

.

Establishment of “quantification” of Topics that have different fields is in execution.

Problems

Policy is connected with “ozone” but not yet with Satellite Observation.

Method of ozone measurement is not only satellite observation.

There are other way of ground-based and balloon-based measurement.

Future works

Extract Topics of other policy documents (MOP, COP and ORM)

Keep going of establishment

of “quantification”