International Law amp International Coop to Alleviate Risk of Space Conflict Kiran Krishnan NAIR Kiran Krishnan Nair CAPS BROAD STRUCTURE ARMS RACE IN SPACE Genesis The Doctrine The Present Status ID: 1041463
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1. Exploring Role of the UN in Tapping International Law & International Coop to Alleviate Risk of Space Conflict Kiran Krishnan NAIRKiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
2. BROAD STRUCTURE ARMS RACE IN SPACEGenesis.The Doctrine.The Present Status.The likely future.THE FUTURE SHOCK (CHANGE)Transnational Space capabilities &International Relations.PAROS to PICOS.International Institutions (the United Nations). ADAPT& ABSORB CHANGEWMC TO WMD in Space.Common Areas of International Cooperation in Space.Common Areas of Collective Defence in Space.Rising role of International Institutions.Kiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
3. Satellite Number of Satellites-Year wiseFirst Soviet launch date.1958195919601961TotalUSUSSRUSUSSRUSUSSRUSUSSRUSUSSRComm010000000200000003001964Nav000001000100030005001967Photo-Reccee000006000600130125011962Early Warning000000000200030005001971Met000000000200010003001963 Within first few years, most space missions of ordnance delivery (BM/FA), mil sats for FE, & battles for control of space (asats) already in place. Vide project Argus (1958), us detonated ‘N’ devices in space. By 1962 soviets also detonated ‘N’ devices.Thus, OUTER SPACE TREATY built upon prevailing status quo in space & hence Peaceful uses = Military use of sats, BMs transiting, (subject to certain restrictive legislative clauses). Law prohibits ‘N’ & WMD in space.Kiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
4. DOCTRINAL UNDERPINNINGSUS PERCEPTIONS ON SPACE UTILITYRoleAirpower MissionPerceived Space MissionControl of EnvironmentControl of Air Counter Air OpsControl of SpaceCounter SpaceApplying Combat PowerAir - Force Application (Strike/CSFO)Space – Force ApplicationEnhancing Combat PowerAirborne Combat Support/ Force EnhancementSpace Based Force EnhancementSustaining Combat ForcesAir Support Operations(Logistics, PAD)Space Support(Launch, orbit support etc.)FSU PERCEPTIONS ON SPACE UTILITYROLESPACE MISSIONS (SOKOLOVSKY DOCTRINE)1CREATION OF SPACE SYSTEMS FOR COMBAT EFFECTIVENESS OF ARMED FORCES = FORCE ENHANCEMENT2PREVENTING OTHER COUNTRIES FROM USING SPACE = COUNTER SPACE3DEVELOP STRATEGIC OFFENSIVE SYSTEMS4???Kiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
5. Major Types of Space WeaponsKINETIC ASAT: CHINA (2007) & US (2008) NUCLEAR BLAST: US & RUSSIA (1960-70) CO-ORBITAL ASATS TESTED BY RUS IN 1970NETWORK INTERFERENCE AND JAMMING LASERS DAZZLING, DISABLING (2010,2011,2012) Air Launched US (1985) MICRO/NANO SATS IN ASAT ROLES PELLET ASATs (1970-80) Kiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
6. THE PRESENT Only 3/195 nations on Earth have tested space weapons.
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8. Figures doubled in less than a decade - So What!!! THE CHANGE: GEO-ECONOMICS OF SPACE-1
9. GEO-ECONOMICS OF SPACE-2 Figures of the Past Decade far exceed those of the last Four Decades
10. GEO-ECONOMICS OF SPACE-3 Geo-economics not confined to two: More players, more complex. Leading Space faring nations are lead investors-returns are high.
11. THE CHANGE (Future Shock)Space democratised: Unlike CW era, Dec 2014, 1381 operational satellites of 80 countries (Bilateral → International, multi agency). Governance Issues. Trend towards dual use rather than dedicated military satellites, 12 in 2014, 08 in 2015. Cheaper: Affordable Micro and Nano satellites, increased redundancy, targeting complexities. Incentives to destroy satellites has reduced, serves little operational purpose & not cost effective. Year2000-122013201420152020No of Micro Satellites20-25921581311000+Past: Military issues preponderant. Present & Future: Governance issues.
12. WHAT IS UNCHANGEDThe focus on the familiar past.Baggage of the familiar past→ International law on the peaceful use of outer space & the impasse. Issues in adapting to change.→ The resources, organisation & infrastructure of International Institutions dealing with space. Lesser issues in adapting to change. Drop excess baggage & consider other areas of focus to adapt to change.
13. THE PREDOMINANT FOCUS Focus on WMC may continue alongside focus on WMD
14. WMC TO WMD IN OUTER SPACETake focus beyond words to action in space. → Use Space as Weapons of Mass Development. Focus on International Law to promote and institutionalise Development & International Coop. → Focus on Affirmative Obligations rather than Negative Proscriptions. → Positive Obligation of “International Cooperation” far more profuse in OST than Proscriptions. Adapt to Change: Increase focus on Promotion of International Cooperation in Outer Space (PICO)
15. From PAROS to PICO with WMD• PAROS: Contentious national security issues – deep individual sensitivities, no common ground- no consensus.• PICO: → Areas of Common gain – consensus possible. → Areas of Common insecurity – consensus possible.• Security is a subset of development & hence enhance security by PICO.
16. Chart is only illustrative; many more subsets & many more areas of International Co operation in Space. Huge Area-Huge Role! Kiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
17. Would this suffice for the future??? No longer “Space Affairs”, it’s “Space Governance”. Kiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
18. UNOOSA REGULAR BUDGET RESOURCES IN THOUSANDS OF DOLLARS2010-2011 Expenditure2012-2013 Expenditure2014-2015 Appropriation2016-2017 Estimate8592.08305.58160.68102.4INADEQUACY OF RESOURCES ISS-$ 150 Billion, Space Commerce -$ 323 Billion, Billions of users Kiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
19. PROFLIGACY???Sub optimal Use: Over 600 Earth Imaging sats do the same task. → Composite mosaic for agriculture & hydrology makes more sense. NAVSTAR, GLONASS, BEIDOU, GALILEO, QZSS, IRNSS. → 100 Navsats and yet unable to locate.No system for sharing SATCOM capacity during disasters etc.The ISS at over $ 150 Bn is the single largest contraption ever made. Prudence demands International Cooperation. Greater Role & Resources for International Institutions lest money sinks in space Black Hole.
20. Applicability of Space WMD-1 Conventional Areas:→ Food security: Use EO imagery for agricultural development in Asia & Africa.→ Health security: Connect the world on Telemedicine.→ Education: Connect Universities on global Tele-education network. → Disaster reliefVelvet glove of diplomacy to convert concept to reality. Connect the globe with space WMD
21. Applicability of Space WMD-2 Un Conventional Areas:→ Consolidate Global NAVSAT capacity to break crime-terror nexus.→ Law (Art-1 & 3) demand int coop for interplanetary exploration. Time for dedicated international body. → Planetary exploration need not lead to competition & conflict. No Westphalia in OS. Global commons, global effort makes sense. → Asteroid defence & debris mitigation – common threat, common defence demand global effort.
22. THE INTER-LINK NEEDS TO BE STRENGTHENED WITH MORE RESOURCES TO GO BEYOND AFFAIRS TO GOVERNANCE THE CHALLENGETHE OPPORTUNITYTHE INTER-LINK
23. Thank YouFor Allowing me to share my Ignorance!Kiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
24. International Law & PICO-1 • Outer Space Treaty-67: General & Specific obligations for International CooperationLanguage: “State parties to contribute to broad International Cooperation...”, “Desire to use space for International Cooperation”“To develop mutual understanding & strengthen friendly relations amongst states...”
25. International Law & PICO-2 • Samples of specific obligationsArt-1: “Expl & Use for benefit & interest of all countries...States shall facilitate & encourage Int Coop in scientific investigation”.Art-3: “States shall carry on activities...promoting international cooperation & understanding”.Art-9: “State parties shall be guided by principle of coop & mutual assistance....”Art-10, 11 & 12 have similar language as also Art-2, 4 and 13 of the Moon Treaty.
26. International Law & PICO-3 • Int Law & UN Charter made specifically applicable by Art-3 Broad precepts of Customary International Law also promote the concept.
27. Why do countries with indigenous NAVSAT systems have the highest vehicle thefts???? Kiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
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29. Linked by the 4’ 8.5 Inches ruleKiran Krishnan Nair, CAPS
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