daide à la décision multicritère Page web http homepagesulbacbe bmaresc enstahtml Travail de groupe 2 à 3 étudiants Pour le 10112014 préciser par mail à bmaresculbacbe ID: 141696
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Cours d’aide à la décision multicritère
Page webhttp://homepages.ulb.ac.be/~bmaresc/ensta.htmlTravail de groupe (2 à 3 étudiants)Pour le 10/11/2014, préciser par mail à bmaresc@ulb.ac.be La composition du groupeL’entreprise retenueLe cadre du problème à traiter (actions, critères)Le 12/11/2014, courte présentation (5 min.) et discussion.
ENSTA - 2014
1Slide2
Tableau multicritère
Au moins 6 actionsAu moins 5 critèresCritèresQuantitatifsQualitatifsProblématiqueSélection d’une actionSélection multiple sous contraintesEvaluationDifférents points de vue, scénariosENSTA - 20142Slide3
Visual PROMETHEE
WWW.PROMETHEE-GAIA.NET3-level simple hierarchical criteria structure.New visual tools:PROMETHEE rankings and Diamond,Visual Weight
Stability Intervals,
Decision-maker’s
Brain
(PROMETHEE VI),
GAIA-3D,
GAIA-
Webs and PROMap GIS integration,Performance (input-output) analysis, …
ENSTA - 2014
3Slide4
MCDA vs Optimisation
ENSTA - 20144
Social
Environment
Economic
Equitable
Sustainable
Bearable
Viable
Optimisation
MCDA
Single
criterion
:
Profit
Profit, Social,
Environment
, …
Short-
sightedness
Crisis
Sustainable
DecisionsSlide5
ENSTA - 2014
5Some Decisionor Evaluation ProblemsLocating a new plant, a new shop, ...Human resources management.Purchasing equipment.Assessing the quality of suppliers.Evaluating projects.
Selecting an investment strategy.Slide6
ENSTA - 2014
6Some applications at ULBFinancial evaluation of companiesQuality assessment of suppliers
Electricity production planning at Electrabel
Regional planning
Evaluation of urban waste management systems
Environmental applications
Health care:
Evaluation
Therapeutical
choice
Hospital management
...Slide7
ENSTA - 2014
7PROMETHEERank decisions from the best to the worst ones.Identify best compromise solutions.Slide8
ENSTA - 2014
8PROMETHEE I & IIPROMETHEE I : partial ranking –
PROMETHEE II :
complete
ranking
–Slide9
ENSTA - 2014
PROMETHEE Diamond9Slide10
PROMETHEE Rainbow
ENSTA - 201410Slide11
Sensitivity Analysis
with PROMETHEECriteria weights PROMETHEE ranking.Interactive weight sensitivity analysis: « Walking
Weights ».
Robustness
with
respect to
weight
values?
Weight stability intervals.
Visual weight
stability intervals.
ENSTA - 2014
11Slide12
Walking Weights
ENSTA - 201412Slide13
Visual Stability Intervals
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VSI for «
Precio
» (
level
6):
[ 19.20% , 23.70% ]
VSI for «
Precio
» (
level
1): [ 0.00% , 50.68% ]
VSI for «
Potencia
» (
level
1): [ 0.00% , 48.65% ]Slide14
ENSTA - 2014
14GAIADiscover conflicts among criteria.Identify potential compromises.Help to fix priorities.Slide15
GAIA
ENSTA - 201415
Actions: points
Criteria
:
axes
= 90%Slide16
ENSTA - 2014
16GAIA
= 90%
Precio
Economico:
15 k€
Turismo
:
25,5-26 k€
Deportivo
:
29 k€
Lujo
:
35-38 k€Slide17
ENSTA - 2014
17GAIAPotencia Deportivo: 110 kW
Lujo: 85-90 kW
Turismo
:
75-85 kW
Economico:
50 kW
= 90%Slide18
GAIA
ENSTA - 201418
Actions: points Criteria
:
axes
Decision
axis
= 90%
PROMETHEE II
!
Turismo
B : 0,26
Lujo
1
:
0,06
Turismo
A : 0,02
Lujo
2 : 0,00
Economico : -0,15 Deportivo : -0,17Slide19
GAIA-
BrainENSTA - 201419
20
years
old
35
years
oldSlide20
ENSTA - 2014
20GAIA
Actions: points
Criteria
:
axes
Decision
axis
= 90%
!! only
% information !!Slide21
GAIA
WebsENSTA - 201421
Action profile –
Turismo
B
GAIA Web –
Turismo
B
Turismo
A
Turismo
B
Deportes
Economico
Lujo
1
Lujo
2Slide22
ENSTA - 2014
22Multi-scenarios modelScenarios:Points of view,Hypotheses, …Evaluations:‘Objective’ criteria: common evaluations.
‘Subjective’ criteria: specific evaluations for each scenario.Specific preference structures :
Weights, preference thresholds.Slide23
ENSTA - 2014
23Multi-scenarios modelAdaptation of PROMETHEE:Individual rankings.Global (group) rankings taking into account a possible weighing of the scenarios.Adaptation of GAIA:Three distinct analyses.Slide24
ENSTA - 2014
24Slide25
PROMap
Google Maps integration:ENSTA - 201425