Study Results PC8PC16 System Stress Tests This slide deck contains results from the 2012 TEPPC Study Program related to the various stress tests performed on the 2022 Common Case The results of the studies are shown along with an indicator to show the robustness of transmission in that area ID: 765978
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Study Results PC8-PC16 System Stress Tests This slide deck contains results from the 2012 TEPPC Study Program related to the various stress tests performed on the 2022 Common Case. The results of the studies are shown along with an indicator to show the robustness of transmission in that area.
Description and goalAssumptionsResults 10-Year Stress Test Results
Study Description and Goal
PC8-PC15 – Add 6,000 GWh Renewables PC16 – RPS Off-RampStress Test Cases – two concepts…
Evaluate system’s ability to integrate and deliver added resources to load, subject to transmission constraints“Stress” the system Proxy forHigh gas (makes RE more competitive)High load (requires higher RPS and more RE)CO2 Policy (less thermal, more RE)Increase in RPS (more RE)Studies are designed as indicators Summary “ Examine the Robustness of the Power Grid” Help us to understand how the system may behave under a variety of future conditions. This is robust planning.
No additional transmission addedSmall addition of RE will not solely justify addition of large interregional projectCapital cost analysis will not be performed as it is outside the intent of the study Caveats
Study Assumptions
Stress Test: PC8-PC15Resource Selection Process Extrapolation Method
Resources from CPUC scenario that were originally decremented for Common Case net-short are added Solar +1000 GWh Geothermal -1000 GWh Evaluated as one 6,000 GWh study. Resource split 50/50 in each Basin state. Per CPUC
Stress Test: PC16Resource Removal Process WECC ClassExplanation Class 0Existing Class 1 Under active construction. Projected to be in-service within five years. Class 2 Additions that were reported to have: Regulatory approval (or in review) Signed Interconnection agreement Expected on-line date within seven years Class 3 Meet NERC criteria for Future Planned or Future Other Resources but that do not meet Class 1 or 2 Class 4 Meet NERC criteria for Conceptual Resources WECC LRS Data Collection Manual Remove
Common Case Results Refresher
Selection based on → Regional Significance Construction Status Financial Indicators Implementation Indicators
Potential “area of concern” High utilization can be explained or is expected
Flow: BC to NW Flow: NW to BC
IPP generation
Common Trends System seems to be fairly robust given the CCTA and Common Case starting point of system utilization. 1 When more renewable energy is added to the system, gas appears to be the marginal resource in all studies (except Montana), given our current price assumptions. CA gas units are “most marginal.” 2 Heavier utilization, not much congestion (i.e., the transmission system still permits economic transfer). 3
California Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Generation Impacts Key Finding Robustness Indicator Stress test had only minor impact on transmission utilization. Including additional generation in CA reduces requirement for imports.
Arizona Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Generation Impacts Key Finding Robustness Indicator Increase in AZ to CA imports. Congestion on P29. More detailed analysis required.
New Mexico Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Generation Impacts Key Finding Robustness Indicator Increase in P22 (SW of 4-Corners) utilization, but not congested. Other paths are not heavily impacted.
Wyoming Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Generation Impacts Key Finding Robustness Indicator Some sensitivity observed – P29 and P36. Large change in RMPA to Basin flow.
Montana Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Generation Impacts Key Finding Robustness Indicator P8 congested as a result. MT system is relatively isolated and is easily stressed.
Washington Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Generation Impacts Key Finding Robustness Indicator Small impact.
Oregon Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Generation Impacts Key Finding Robustness Indicator Very little congestion observed.
Basin Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Generation Impacts Key Finding Robustness Indicator Increased utilization, but not much congestion.
RPS Off-Ramp Stress Test Assumptions Transmission Results Generation Impacts Key Finding Robustness Indicator Decrease in congestion outweighs increase. Side bar : Is it apparent that our system designed for “RPS compliance” is highly versatile and can accommodate more “local” generation?
Quick Summary Robustness Indicator NA NA NA NA
Questions or thoughts on this study?