THEMAs Technology Outlook Robert Seguin Thema Consulting Group 2030 assumptions CAPEX450 kEURMW OPEX7 kEURMW electricity price80 EURMWh 2 Production costs for green hydrogen are dominated by electricity costs ID: 1031296
Download Presentation The PPT/PDF document "Effect of flexible H2 generation on prod..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.
1. Effect of flexible H2 generation on production costTHEMAs Technology Outlook:Robert Seguin, Thema Consulting Group
2. 2030 assumptions : CAPEX=450 kEUR/MW, OPEX=7 kEUR/MW, electricity price=80 EUR/MWh2Production costs for green hydrogen are dominated by electricity costsConsider grid-connected electrolysis with spot market electricity pricesProduction costs for green H2 dominated by electricity costsAt constant electricity prices high utilization rates are favorableannualized CAPEX,OPEX[EUR/MWcapacity]grid fees, taxes[EUR/MWhelectricity] / [EUR/MWelectricity][EUR/MWhelectricity]70 - 90%electricity costs
3. 3Example from Germany:Average price: ~80 EUR/MWhLowest price: 0 EUR/MWhPeak price: >300 EUR/MWhElectricity prices vary – dynamic operation can reduce electricity cost and thus hydrogen production costsSubstantial price volatilityProduction during the lowest-cost hours only:Cost reduction for electricity outweighs cost increase for CAPEX and OPEX.High utilization not always keyDepending on the market value of the H2, lower production volumes at lower production cost per unit can be a profitable option.Dead projects can become profitable2030 assumptions : CAPEX=450 kEUR/MW, OPEX=7 kEUR/MW, electricity price=80 EUR/MWhTHEMA’s recent Market Outlook for Germany in 2030
4. 4Dynamic operation results in very different costs curves in the three bidding zones shown.The decrease of costs and overall profits depends on the electricity market environmentDifferent bidding zonesRegions with a lot of flexible hydro power have lower cost reduction potential (red color) than regions with little flexibility in the system (green color).Strong local variationsWhether or not flexible operation strategiesare favorable depends on a number of parameters:Electricity price volatilityOverall price levelMarket prices hydrogenElectrolyser cost parametersFlexible operation potentialOperation strategy…Essential market environment factorsHigh utilization rates are not always the most profitable solution!
5. Navigate the energy transition with confidence