Rob Leland Sandia National Laboratories What is national security Global Local Constructive Destructive Resource conflicts Sustainable dev Ecomigration Conventional engage Nuclear deterrence ID: 1042875
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1. Technology Confluence and National SecurityRob LelandSandia National Laboratories
2. What is national security?GlobalLocalConstructiveDestructive Resource conflicts Sustainable dev. Ecomigration Conventional engage. Nuclear deterrenceMilitary containment Prosperity Health care Education Terrorism CrimeEnvironmentalHuman needWarHomeland
3. Red: Some perspectiveDeaths worldwide, 1900-2000
4. Green: The Malthus challenge2000: 6B people, $30T economic output2025: 8B people, $60T economic output2100: Expect ~2X as many people, Expect ~5X per capita consumptionImplies an order of magnitude greater environmental stress on the planet
5. Black: An intriguing patternEraCrisisPeriodPeakYrs. since previousLate MedievalWars of Roses1459-14871485ReformationArmada Crisis1569-15941588103New WorldGlorious Revolution1675-17041689101RevolutionaryAmerican Revolution1773-1794178192Civil WarCivil War1860-1865186382Great PowerDepression & WWII1929-1946194481MillennialMillennial2005-2026?2024?80?
6. Gray: Clear and Present
7. What is confluence?Generation indexTechnological Event-10,000Tool use-500Drawing-400Agriculture, writing-40Universities-24Printing-16Modern scientific method, accurate clocks-10Industry-5Telephone-4Radio-3Television-2Digital computers-1Space age, microbiology-.5Internet, nanoscience0?
8. One answerCognoNanoInfoBioCognoNanoInfoBioBitsAtomsNeuronsGenesThe little “BANG”NBIC
9. Edge examplesCognoNanoInfoBioCellular sensorsCellular signalingCellular instrumentationNeural interfaceNeural networksNeural hardware
10. Plane examplesCognoNanoInfoBioCellular sensorsCellular signaling modelCellular instrumentationNeural interfaceNeural networksNeural hardware Neuron “tunnel” (SNL) “Digital” antibodies … viral sized logic chips (HP) Tissue based and in-vivo sensors- nanotube monitors in brain blood vessels (NYU)- optical nanosensors for chemical analysis within cells (U Mich.) DNA regulated nano assembly of circuit devices (U Minn.) Live neural net (Cornell)Neural “nMOS” architecture (Tokyo U)
11. The “cognohedron”CognoNanoInfoBioPhysicalBehavioralCellular sensorsCellular signaling modelCellular instrumentationNeural interfaceNeural networksNeural hardware Neuron “tunnel” (SNL) “Digital” antibodies … viral sized logic chips (HP) Tissue based and in-vivo sensors- nanotube monitors in brain blood vessels (NYU)- optical nanosensors for chemical analysis within cells (U Mich.) DNA regulated nano assembly of circuit devices (U Minn.)Synthetic intelligenceArtificial immune system Cognitive prostheticsBrain-machine interface Live neural net (Cornell)Neural “nMOS” architecture (Tokyo U)
12. An assessment of the needInterpreters and analysts with language skillsBetter intelligence filtering and fusionAutomated conversion of intelligence from paper to electronic formGreater use of open sources for intelligenceMore use of red teamingGreater investment in technology research and developmentMore staff and resources to cover simultaneous threats… etc.“Nothing will be more important to the success of the campaign against terrorism than meaningfully improving the intelligence community’s capabilities and performance” -CSIS
13. Terrorism detection architectureCapabilitiesInclinationsDatabase of Possible Planned EventsDatabase of DetectedActivitiesHypotheticalactionsPlausibilityevidenceRefineCollectionInterdict/prepareProposed new hypotheses
14. Notional sensor elementGPS AntennaAcousticTransducerSatComm Antenna(optional)Imager (optical &/or IR)RF CommsAntennas2 1/2”PV Array Panels(optionalBatteriesInternalCircuitry(inc. SeismicTransducer)System MigrationIn 2-3 yearsWafer-level Integration3-D Stacked PackagingAdvanced melec & MEMS8x volumereduction8x weightreductionChem/Bio< 200 cm3400 g4 - mo$2K
15. Social prediction challengeGroupActorPsychological ModelsCognitions, Behaviors, and EmotionsPhysiology/ biologyNetwork analysisReligion ModelsLanguage modelsGender rolesEthnicityValues and BeliefsHow to model behavioral phenomena computationally?
16. Summary thoughtsOur concept and sense of national security will change dramatically over the next decadeAn emerging confluence of key technologies will prove vital in addressing the coming challengesOur community has a pivotal role to play in that confluence.We need to think more broadly and creatively, and to understand better the “softer” sciences.
17. AcknowledgementsSlideReference/Credit2Threat space mapping – SNL Advanced Concepts Group/Gerry Yonas3Conflict deaths - The Economist; Disease deaths- Al Zelicoff; total deaths - a simple exponential growth model4Population/Economic figures for 2000/2025 – WorldWatch/Homer-Dixson5Historical crisis chart (adapted) - The Fourth Turning, Strauss & Howe6Threat illustrations – ACG/Ken Miller7Convergence in time - NSF NBIC report8-11The cognohedron/NIBC – ACG/Rob Leland8The Big Down, ETC Group – BANG name for NIBC12To Prevail: An American Strategy for the Campaign Against Terrorism; Campbell and Flournoy, CSIS.13Terrorism detection architecture – ACG14Sensor element concept – ACG/Ron Pate15Behavior modeling paradigm – ACG/Ben Wu