Daniel Jacob with Alex Turner Bram Maasakkers Jianxiong Sheng Melissa Sulprizio The Paris Climate Conference December 2015 Countries pledge to keep global warming to less than 2 ID: 777794
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Slide1
Quantifying methane emissions from North America
Daniel Jacob
with Alex Turner, Bram
Maasakkers
,
Jianxiong
Sheng, Melissa
Sulprizio
The Paris Climate Conference (December 2015)
Countries pledge to keep global warming to less than 2
o
C above pre-industrial;
aim for climate neutrality by 2050.
Voluntary measures by individual countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions;
d
eveloped nations are “expected”, developing nations are “encouraged”
$100B/year aid from developed to developing nations to promote
decarbonisation
,
remediation of climate change impacts
Slide3Global rise in surface air temperature
GISTEMP [2016]
Slide4Radiative equilibrium of the Earth
Solar constant
F
s
= 1,370 W m
-2
0.4-3
m
Surface
T
o
Atmosphere
T
1
IR absorptivity f
(greenhouse effect)
b
lackbody flux
σ
T
o
4
(1-
f)
σ
T
o
4
f
σ
T
1
4
f
σT14
5-20 m
Albedo
A
Radiative equilibrium:
Increase greenhouse effect by
f
:
Slide5Rising atmospheric CO2
and methane
The last 50 years (remote sites)
CO
2
Methane
Methane
CO
2
The last 1000 years (ice cores)
Radiative forcing since 1750 is 1.7 W m
-2
for CO
2
, 1.0 W m
-2
for methane
Slide6Global atmospheric methane budget
Wetlands: 160
Fires:
20
Livestock: 110
Rice: 40
Oil/Gas: 70
Coal: 50
Waste: 60
Other: 40
2012 EDGAR inventory (
Tg
a
-1
): Emission rate = (Activity rate)
(Emission factor)
CH
4
Atmospheric oxidation
Lifetime 9 years
Global distribution of emissions
Emission
550
60
Tg
/year
Slide7US methane emissions from EPA national inventory (2012)
e
nteric fermentation (6.7)
r
ice (0.4)
onshore
(0.9)
offshore
(0.6)
Natural gas 6.2
p
roduction (2.0)
processing (0.9)
t
ransmission
(2.1)
d
istribution
(1.2)
Oil 1.5
Coal
mines 3.2
Agriculture 9.6
l
andfills (4.9)
w
astewater (0.6)
Waste 5.5
Other 1.4
US EPA [2014]
Slide8Gridded EPA inventory of methane emissions (2012)
Maasakkers
et al., in prep.
Slide9EDGARv4.2 inventory
Slide10Using satellite observations of atmospheric methane
to improve emission inventories
EDGAR emission inventory
atmospherictransport
model
s
imulated concentrations
o
bserved concentrations
compare
Bayesian optimization
Improved emissions
Slide11Observing methane from space in the near infrared
CH
4
H
2
O
CO
2
N
2
O
CO
surface
s
olar
backscatter
Retrieval of the backscattered spectrum
mean methane mixing ratio (mole fraction) in atmospheric column
1.65 µm
2.3 µm
Atmospheric optical depths
CH
4
Slide12Methane observed by GOSAT satellite instrument
Turner et al. [2015]
Slide13Correction to EDGAR methane emissions using GOSAT data
GOSAT observations, 2009-2011
Optimization
at coarse resolution
Dynamic
b
oundary
conditions
Optimization
at fine resolution
Turner et al. [2015]
correction factors to EDGAR v4.2 + LPJ prior
Slide14Correction factors for North America
CONUS anthropogenic emission of 40-43
Tg
a
-1
vs. EPA value of 27
Tg
a
-1
Is the underestimate in livestock or oil/gas emissions or
both?
Turner et al. [2015]
Slide15Optimized top-down inventory
CONUS anthropogenic emission of 40-43
Tg
a
-1
vs. EPA value of 27
Tg
a
-1
Is the underestimate in livestock or oil/gas emissions or both?
Turner et al. [2015]
Slide1616
EPA
EDGARv4.2
Livestock Oil & Gas Waste
Maasakkers
et al., in prep.
Attribution of emission correction to oil/gas or livestock
requires reliable information on source patterns
Eagle Ford Shale,
Texas
Source-resolved emissions in the South-Central US
Slide172002-present NOAA data from Oklahoma
show rise in US methane vs. background
Turner et al., submitted
Implies 3.6%/year rise in US methane emissions affecting Oklahoma…
but EPA says that emissions have stayed flat during that time!
Slide18GOSAT shows rising methane emissions across midwestern
US
2010-2014 trend in difference between nadir (land) and glint (Pacific) methane columns;
black dots indicate significant (>95%) trends on 4
o
x4
o
grid
Implies 2010-2014 rise of 7.0% /year in CONUS emissions – but cause is unclear
Turner et al., submitted
Slide19Global implications of rise in US methane emissions
Trend in global atmospheric methane
E.
Dlugokencky
, NOAA
Global methane trend since 2006 implies an emission increase of 3.4-4.4
Tg
/year [
Kirschke
et al., 2013]
We find that US emissions during that period grew by 3-7% a
-1
or 1.1-2.5
Tg
/year
Rising US emissions could account for 30-60% of the global rise in methane
Turner et al., submitted
Slide20Building a North American methane monitoring system
CalNex
INTEX-A
SEAC
4
RS
EPA national inventory
2016 satellite launches: TROPOMI global daily mapping with 7
7 km
2
pixels
GHGSat
targeted sampling with 5050 m
2
pixels
Integrate satellite data with surface, aircraft observations
Improved understanding of emissions to serve climate policy
Slide21Working with IBM: application to oil/gas fields
Oil/gas production field
IBM surface monitors
How can we best combine
s
urface and satellite data
to monitor emissions at device level.
d
etect super-emitters?
TO BE CONTINUED!