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Quantifying methane emissions from North America Quantifying methane emissions from North America

Quantifying methane emissions from North America - PowerPoint Presentation

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Quantifying methane emissions from North America - PPT Presentation

Daniel Jacob with Alex Turner Bram Maasakkers Jianxiong Sheng Melissa Sulprizio The Paris Climate Conference December 2015 Countries pledge to keep global warming to less than 2 ID: 777794

emissions methane emission global methane emissions global emission gas oil epa turner atmospheric inventory year rise satellite livestock surface

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Slide1

Quantifying methane emissions from North America

Daniel Jacob

with Alex Turner, Bram

Maasakkers

,

Jianxiong

Sheng, Melissa

Sulprizio

Slide2

The Paris Climate Conference (December 2015)

Countries pledge to keep global warming to less than 2

o

C above pre-industrial;

aim for climate neutrality by 2050.

Voluntary measures by individual countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions;

d

eveloped nations are “expected”, developing nations are “encouraged”

$100B/year aid from developed to developing nations to promote

decarbonisation

,

remediation of climate change impacts

Slide3

Global rise in surface air temperature

GISTEMP [2016]

Slide4

Radiative equilibrium of the Earth

Solar constant

F

s

= 1,370 W m

-2

0.4-3

m

Surface

T

o

Atmosphere

T

1

IR absorptivity f

(greenhouse effect)

b

lackbody flux

σ

T

o

4

(1-

f)

σ

T

o

4

f

σ

T

1

4

f

σT14

5-20 m

Albedo

A

Radiative equilibrium:

Increase greenhouse effect by

f

:

Slide5

Rising atmospheric CO2

and methane

The last 50 years (remote sites)

CO

2

Methane

Methane

CO

2

The last 1000 years (ice cores)

Radiative forcing since 1750 is 1.7 W m

-2

for CO

2

, 1.0 W m

-2

for methane

Slide6

Global atmospheric methane budget

Wetlands: 160

Fires:

20

Livestock: 110

Rice: 40

Oil/Gas: 70

Coal: 50

Waste: 60

Other: 40

2012 EDGAR inventory (

Tg

a

-1

): Emission rate = (Activity rate)

 (Emission factor)

CH

4

Atmospheric oxidation

Lifetime 9 years

Global distribution of emissions

Emission

550

 60

Tg

/year

Slide7

US methane emissions from EPA national inventory (2012)

e

nteric fermentation (6.7)

r

ice (0.4)

onshore

(0.9)

offshore

(0.6)

Natural gas 6.2

p

roduction (2.0)

processing (0.9)

t

ransmission

(2.1)

d

istribution

(1.2)

Oil 1.5

Coal

mines 3.2

Agriculture 9.6

l

andfills (4.9)

w

astewater (0.6)

Waste 5.5

Other 1.4

US EPA [2014]

Slide8

Gridded EPA inventory of methane emissions (2012)

Maasakkers

et al., in prep.

Slide9

EDGARv4.2 inventory

Slide10

Using satellite observations of atmospheric methane

to improve emission inventories

EDGAR emission inventory

atmospherictransport

model

s

imulated concentrations

o

bserved concentrations

compare

Bayesian optimization

Improved emissions

Slide11

Observing methane from space in the near infrared

CH

4

H

2

O

CO

2

N

2

O

CO

surface

s

olar

backscatter

Retrieval of the backscattered spectrum

mean methane mixing ratio (mole fraction) in atmospheric column

1.65 µm

2.3 µm

Atmospheric optical depths

CH

4

Slide12

Methane observed by GOSAT satellite instrument

Turner et al. [2015]

Slide13

Correction to EDGAR methane emissions using GOSAT data

GOSAT observations, 2009-2011

Optimization

at coarse resolution

Dynamic

b

oundary

conditions

Optimization

at fine resolution

Turner et al. [2015]

correction factors to EDGAR v4.2 + LPJ prior

Slide14

Correction factors for North America

CONUS anthropogenic emission of 40-43

Tg

a

-1

vs. EPA value of 27

Tg

a

-1

Is the underestimate in livestock or oil/gas emissions or

both?

Turner et al. [2015]

Slide15

Optimized top-down inventory

CONUS anthropogenic emission of 40-43

Tg

a

-1

vs. EPA value of 27

Tg

a

-1

Is the underestimate in livestock or oil/gas emissions or both?

Turner et al. [2015]

Slide16

16

EPA

EDGARv4.2

Livestock Oil & Gas Waste

Maasakkers

et al., in prep.

Attribution of emission correction to oil/gas or livestock

requires reliable information on source patterns

Eagle Ford Shale,

Texas

Source-resolved emissions in the South-Central US

Slide17

2002-present NOAA data from Oklahoma

show rise in US methane vs. background

Turner et al., submitted

Implies 3.6%/year rise in US methane emissions affecting Oklahoma…

but EPA says that emissions have stayed flat during that time!

Slide18

GOSAT shows rising methane emissions across midwestern

US

2010-2014 trend in difference between nadir (land) and glint (Pacific) methane columns;

black dots indicate significant (>95%) trends on 4

o

x4

o

grid

Implies 2010-2014 rise of 7.0% /year in CONUS emissions – but cause is unclear

Turner et al., submitted

Slide19

Global implications of rise in US methane emissions

Trend in global atmospheric methane

E.

Dlugokencky

, NOAA

Global methane trend since 2006 implies an emission increase of 3.4-4.4

Tg

/year [

Kirschke

et al., 2013]

We find that US emissions during that period grew by 3-7% a

-1

or 1.1-2.5

Tg

/year

Rising US emissions could account for 30-60% of the global rise in methane

Turner et al., submitted

Slide20

Building a North American methane monitoring system

CalNex

INTEX-A

SEAC

4

RS

EPA national inventory

2016 satellite launches: TROPOMI global daily mapping with 7

7 km

2

pixels

GHGSat

targeted sampling with 5050 m

2

pixels

Integrate satellite data with surface, aircraft observations

Improved understanding of emissions to serve climate policy

Slide21

Working with IBM: application to oil/gas fields

Oil/gas production field

IBM surface monitors

How can we best combine

s

urface and satellite data

to monitor emissions at device level.

d

etect super-emitters?

TO BE CONTINUED!