June 17 2015 INSTITUTE facebookcom idfcinstitute twittercom idfcinstitute Were also on Dr Milan Vaishnav Associate South Asia Program Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ID: 496481
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Slide1
New Rules for Indian Politics?
June 17, 2015
INSTITUTE
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Dr.
Milan
Vaishnav, Associate, South Asia Program, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
www.idfcinstitute.orgSlide2
New Rules for Indian Politics?
Milan Vaishnav
|
June 17, 2015Slide3
Was 2014 a game-changer?
Source:
@
bhuvanthakerSlide4
2014 elections by the numbers
8,251 candidates
464 political parties
554 million voters
Estimated $5 billion in campaign expendituresSlide5
First single-party majority since 1984
Source:
Vaishnav and Smogard (2014)Slide6
“
Tsu-NaMo”Slide7
Source:
CSDS Post-Poll
Reversal of personal fortuneSlide8
The Indian voter in 2015
Source:
Indian ExpressSlide9
1. BJP as new “pole”Slide10
National-regional equilibrium
Source
: Vaishnav and Smogard (2014)Slide11
A new central “pole”
Source:
Press Information BureauSlide12
Congress on the declineSlide13
(Suit)-boots on the groundSlide14
Who controls the states?Slide15
2. Moving towards
“It’s the economy, stupid”Slide16
“It’s the economy, stupid!”Slide17
Triumph of parochialismSlide18
A cautionary tale?
“India has not reached a stage where the people would prefer a CEO to a politician to run the government.”
-- K.C.
Suri
(2004)Slide19
Good economics ≠ good politics
Source:
Vaishnav and Swanson (2015)Slide20
Are things changing?
“Since independence, many Indian voters have reflexively ejected politicians from office even when they had compiled decent records in power…Recently, though, Indian voters have started to reward good performance, especially in state-level politics.”
- Arvind Subramanian (2009)Slide21
2009 Lok Sabha elections
Source:
Gupta and
Panagariya (2014)Slide22
Good economics ≠ good politics
Source:
Vaishnav and Swanson (2013)Slide23
Source:
Vaishnav and Swanson (2013)
Post-2000s shiftSlide24
Most important issue in 2014?
Source:
Lok
Foundation (2014)Slide25
2014 NES post-poll
Source: CSDS
(2014)Slide26
3. Messy realities of ethnic votingSlide27
Social biases: positive & negative
% of respondents demonstrating “bias”
Source: Authors’ calculations based on
Lok
Foundation dataSlide28
2014 BJP performance in north India
Source: CSDS
(2014)Slide29
“Rainbow coalitions” (Bihar 2010)
Social group
% vote for NDA
Brahmin
64
Bhumihar
48
Rajput
68
Other Upper Caste
89
Yadav
18
Kurmi-Koeri
70
Other OBC
63
Chamars
41
Pasi
25
Other SC
52
Muslim
27
Others
47
Source: CSDS (2010)
Upper Caste
OBC
SC
MinoritiesSlide30
Degree of co-ethnic voting
Source: Vaishnav (2014)Slide31
Can
voters ethnically identify candidates?
Source: Vaishnav (2014)Slide32
4. More choices, same optionsSlide33
Surge in political competition
Source: ECISlide34
Dynasticism among MPs
Source: Chandra (2014)Slide35
“Princelings” in parliament
Source: The Hindu (2014)Slide36
State-level dynasties
Abdullahs(NC, Jammu& Kashmir)Badals(SAD, Punjab)
Karunanidhis (DMK, Tamil Nadu)Hoodas (INC, Haryana)
Paswans(LJP, Bihar)Patnaiks (BJP, Odisha)Pawars
(NCP, Maharashtra)Reddys (YSRCP, AP)
Scindias (INC/BJP, Rajasthan/MP)Thackerays (ShivSena, Maharashtra)Yadavs(RJD, Bihar
)Yadavs (SP, UP)Slide37
Hereditary MPs (by age)
Source: The Hindu (2014); French (2010)Slide38
Law-breakers & law-makers?
Source
: Author’s calculations based on ADR dataSlide39
Par for the course
Source
: Author’s calculations based on ADR dataSlide40
Male-female turnout convergenceSlide41
Female representation is (slowly) growingSlide42
Conclusion
Regionalization has stalled; BJP has become “central pole”
Blessing and a curse
Aspirations of voters have changed, yet quality of candidates on offer has not
Social biases remain entrenched even though their expression might be changingSlide43
Our next discussion….
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Fundamental reform in Indian
finance
Dr. Ajay Shah
Head of the Macro
/Finance Group at
the National Institute of Public Finance and PolicyJuly 6, 2015www.idfcinstitute.org