Transformation Technologies in Transportation - Description
Mark R Norman PE Director TRB Program Development amp Strategic Initiatives Transformational or disruptive technologies are those that can be expected to completely displace the status quo ID: 543177 Download Presentation
Mark R. Norman, P.E.. Director, TRB Program Development. & Strategic Initiatives. Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected . to completely displace the status quo.
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Presentation on theme: "Transformation Technologies in Transportation"— Presentation transcript:
Transformation Technologies in TransportationMark R. Norman, P.E.Director, TRB Program Development& Strategic Initiatives
Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected to completely displace the status quo, forever changing the way we live and work.
TRB Hot Topic: TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES
Internet, personal computer, email, smartphone, GPS, big data
TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:General Examples
Connected/automated vehicles, shared vehicles, advanced versions of on-demand shared ride and micro-transit services, NextGen, unmanned aerial systems, cog in “internet-of-things”
Key 2015 TRB
EU-US Symposium “Towards Road Transport Automation” April 14-15, 2015; Washington, DCAutomated Vehicle Symposium: July 20-24, 2015; Ann Arbor, MIImpacts of Automated Vehicles on State and Local Transportation Agencies (NCHRP 20-102)Review of USDOT Report on Connected Vehicle Initiative Communications Systems DeploymentUTC Symposium on Connected/Automated Vehicles, November 4-5, 2015; Washington, DCUrban Mobility Systems: TRB Policy Study (December 2015)
Virginia is a Leader!
Virginia Tech & UVAI-395 Demonstration (October 20, 2015)VDOT Lead for State Pooled Fund Study
From TRB Conferences, Meetings, and Research Projects
Automated Vehicles Will Be Available to the Public by 2020
Automated Vehicles Will Be NOT Available to the Public That Soon
Automated Vehicles Will Be the Biggest Transformational Change Since the Invention of the Automobile
Automated Vehicles May NOT Significantly Change Transportation
Source: James Anderson, Rand
This Will be the Next Federal Interstate-Type Program
Not! Others Will be Leading the Way
These Vehicles Must be Connected with the Infrastructure to be Successful
Automated Vehicles Can Succeed on Their Own
Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate 80 Percent of Serious Accidents
The Potential Safety Impacts of These Vehicles Can’t be Taken for Granted
Connected – Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate Congestion
Traffic Congestion Will Remain a Serious Problem – And Might Get Worse
Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Be Better for the Environment & Land Use
These Vehicles Will Negatively Affect the Environment & Land Use
Will Enable Data Driven Solutions
Big Data Will Create Its Own Issues
, sharing, and analysis
Privacy and security
Some Things We Can Agree On!
The truth lies somewhere in the middle
We have more questions than answers – need research!Need to get started
Between Public and Private Mobility:Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services-A Policy Study-
What Are Technology-Enabled Services?
Bike-sharingCar-sharingRidesharing/Transportation Network CompaniesUber, Lyft, and SidecarMicrotransitBridj, Leap, Chariot, Loup
What is a TNC?
Transportation Network CompanyMost common are Uber, Lyft, and SidecarAllows a passenger to request and pay for a ride via a smartphone app
Transportation Network Companies: Common Model
Most common (and contentious) version connects riders with individuals driving their own personal vehiclesTNCs take a percentage (generally 15-30%) of each fareDriver keeps the rest
Rise of the TNCs
Uber (launched in 2010)$50B valuation58 countries, 300+ cities160,000 driversMore Uber cars in NYC than taxisLyft$2B valuation65 cities in the U.S.Has not released other numbersSidecar10 cities in the U.S.
Impact on Travel Volume?
Too early to tellSan Francisco Survey:1/3 of TNC users would have taken transitAbout 8% induced travel
Much of data is in private sector
Access & Equity: Concerns
Potential equity concerns for:Unbanked populations: TNCs require a credit card to be on file.Those without smart phonesDisabled users. TNCs are not required to have wheelchair accessible vehicles.
Access & Equity: Potential Upsides
TNCs also improve access for some populations
Many paratransit users can use TNCs instead with far faster pickup times
Paratransit services are a major cost for transit properties
Many cities/neighborhoods do not have
Safety : DriverBackground Checks
Taxi industry: Fingerprint driversUber and Lyft: Run checks with name, birthday, SSN, and driver’s license numberWhich is better?Currently a (spirited) policy debateLittle analytical evidence of the effectiveness of either method
Safety: Information Availability
Passengers have: driver’s name, photo, rating, car type, and license plate numberDrivers have: passenger name and photo (if passenger uploaded one), and have recourse in the event of an incident (such as a bar pickup getting sick)Trip is tracked from passenger request to driver match to passenger pickup to passenger drop-off.Passenger is emailed a detailed receipt.
Safety Issues: DUIs
Many claims about Uber/Lyft/Sidecar reducing DUIsCorrelation between arrival in a city and reduction in DUIs, especially among those under 40No rigorous analysis yetCould be due to a combination of factors
TNC employees currently classified as contractors (“IRS1099” employees)Flexibility to work or not, set hoursAll expenses fall to driver
Labor Issues: Rulings to Date
June 2015: California Labor Commission ruled one Uber driver is an employeeUber has appealedOther lawsuits are pending.
Employee vs. contractor ruling could have significant effects on business models of TNCs
Shared Vehicles: What is the Ultimate Vision?
Beyond a ride-hailing serviceChanging the car ownership modelProviding critical first-mile/last-mile accessRevolutionizing carpooling & transitLeveraging driverless vehicle technologies
Challenges to Public Agencies
Technology TsunamiFacilitate Innovation vs. Public SafetyRevenue ImpactsTaxi medallionsParkingTraffic FinesInvestments in Traditional TransitAdapting Infrastructure & Land Use
TRB Policy Study
“Between Public and Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services”Summarizes state of the practiceRecommendations for policy-makers, planners, and legislatorsRelease in late 2015
Are our traditional research processes nimble enough to prepare public agencies in an age of transformational technologies?
Final Question: Transformational Technologies & Research