Presentations text content in Transformation Technologies in Transportation
Slide1
Transformation Technologies in TransportationMark R. Norman, P.E.Director, TRB Program Development& Strategic Initiatives
Slide2Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected to completely displace the status quo, forever changing the way we live and work.
TRB Hot Topic: TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES
Slide3Internet, personal computer, email, smartphone, GPS, big data
TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:General Examples
Slide4Connected/automated vehicles, shared vehicles, advanced versions of on-demand shared ride and micro-transit services, NextGen, unmanned aerial systems, cog in “internet-of-things”
TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:Transportation
Slide5Key 2015 TRB
Activities:Transformational Technologies
EU-US Symposium “Towards Road Transport Automation” April 14-15, 2015; Washington, DCAutomated Vehicle Symposium: July 20-24, 2015; Ann Arbor, MIImpacts of Automated Vehicles on State and Local Transportation Agencies (NCHRP 20-102)Review of USDOT Report on Connected Vehicle Initiative Communications Systems DeploymentUTC Symposium on Connected/Automated Vehicles, November 4-5, 2015; Washington, DCUrban Mobility Systems: TRB Policy Study (December 2015)
Slide6Virginia is a Leader!
Virginia Tech & UVAI-395 Demonstration (October 20, 2015)VDOT Lead for State Pooled Fund Study
Slide7Connected & Automated Vehicles:Some Points (& Counterpoints)
From TRB Conferences, Meetings, and Research Projects
Slide8Automated Vehicles Will Be Available to the Public by 2020
Slide9Automated Vehicles Will Be NOT Available to the Public That Soon
Slide10Automated Vehicles Will Be the Biggest Transformational Change Since the Invention of the Automobile
4
Slide11Automated Vehicles May NOT Significantly Change Transportation
Source: James Anderson, Rand
5
Slide12This Will be the Next Federal Interstate-Type Program
6
Slide13Not! Others Will be Leading the Way
7
Slide14These Vehicles Must be Connected with the Infrastructure to be Successful
8
Slide15Automated Vehicles Can Succeed on Their Own
9
Something everywhere
vs.
everything somewhere
Slide16Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate 80 Percent of Serious Accidents
10
Slide17The Potential Safety Impacts of These Vehicles Can’t be Taken for Granted
11
Slide18Connected – Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate Congestion
12
Slide19Traffic Congestion Will Remain a Serious Problem – And Might Get Worse
13
Slide20Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Be Better for the Environment & Land Use
14
Slide21These Vehicles Will Negatively Affect the Environment & Land Use
15
Slide22Will Enable Data Driven Solutions
14
Slide23Big Data Will Create Its Own Issues
15
Collection
, sharing, and analysis
Ownership
Privacy and security
Reserved spectrum
Slide24Some Things We Can Agree On!
The truth lies somewhere in the middle
We have more questions than answers – need research!Need to get started
Slide25Between Public and Private Mobility:Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services-A Policy Study-
Slide26What Are Technology-Enabled Services?
Bike-sharingCar-sharingRidesharing/Transportation Network CompaniesUber, Lyft, and SidecarMicrotransitBridj, Leap, Chariot, Loup
Slide27What is a TNC?
Transportation Network CompanyMost common are Uber, Lyft, and SidecarAllows a passenger to request and pay for a ride via a smartphone app
Slide28Transportation Network Companies: Common Model
Most common (and contentious) version connects riders with individuals driving their own personal vehiclesTNCs take a percentage (generally 15-30%) of each fareDriver keeps the rest
Slide29Rise of the TNCs
Uber (launched in 2010)$50B valuation58 countries, 300+ cities160,000 driversMore Uber cars in NYC than taxisLyft$2B valuation65 cities in the U.S.Has not released other numbersSidecar10 cities in the U.S.
Slide30Impact on Travel Volume?
Too early to tellSan Francisco Survey:1/3 of TNC users would have taken transitAbout 8% induced travel
Much of data is in private sector
Slide31Access & Equity: Concerns
Potential equity concerns for:Unbanked populations: TNCs require a credit card to be on file.Those without smart phonesDisabled users. TNCs are not required to have wheelchair accessible vehicles.
Slide32Access & Equity: Potential Upsides
TNCs also improve access for some populations
Many paratransit users can use TNCs instead with far faster pickup times
Paratransit services are a major cost for transit properties
Many cities/neighborhoods do not have
readily available
street-hail cabs
Slide33
Safety : DriverBackground Checks
Taxi industry: Fingerprint driversUber and Lyft: Run checks with name, birthday, SSN, and driver’s license numberWhich is better?Currently a (spirited) policy debateLittle analytical evidence of the effectiveness of either method
Slide34Safety: Information Availability
Passengers have: driver’s name, photo, rating, car type, and license plate numberDrivers have: passenger name and photo (if passenger uploaded one), and have recourse in the event of an incident (such as a bar pickup getting sick)Trip is tracked from passenger request to driver match to passenger pickup to passenger drop-off.Passenger is emailed a detailed receipt.
Slide35Safety Issues: DUIs
Many claims about Uber/Lyft/Sidecar reducing DUIsCorrelation between arrival in a city and reduction in DUIs, especially among those under 40No rigorous analysis yetCould be due to a combination of factors
Slide36Labor Issues
TNC employees currently classified as contractors (“IRS1099” employees)Flexibility to work or not, set hoursAll expenses fall to driver
Vehicle
P
hone/data plan
H
ealth insurance
Other
Slide37Labor Issues: Rulings to Date
June 2015: California Labor Commission ruled one Uber driver is an employeeUber has appealedOther lawsuits are pending.
Employee vs. contractor ruling could have significant effects on business models of TNCs
Slide38Shared Vehicles: What is the Ultimate Vision?
Beyond a ride-hailing serviceChanging the car ownership modelProviding critical first-mile/last-mile accessRevolutionizing carpooling & transitLeveraging driverless vehicle technologies
Slide39Challenges to Public Agencies
Technology TsunamiFacilitate Innovation vs. Public SafetyRevenue ImpactsTaxi medallionsParkingTraffic FinesInvestments in Traditional TransitAdapting Infrastructure & Land Use
Slide40TRB Policy Study
“Between Public and Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services”Summarizes state of the practiceRecommendations for policy-makers, planners, and legislatorsRelease in late 2015
Slide41Are our traditional research processes nimble enough to prepare public agencies in an age of transformational technologies?
Final Question: Transformational Technologies & Research
Slide42Questions?
Mark Norman
mnorman@nas.edu
Transformation Technologies in Transportation
Download Presentation - The PPT/PDF document "Transformation Technologies in Transport..." is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to download and print the materials on this web site for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this agreement.