Mark R Norman PE Director TRB Program Development amp Strategic Initiatives Transformational or disruptive technologies are those that can be expected to completely displace the status quo ID: 543177
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Transformation Technologies in TransportationMark R. Norman, P.E.Director, TRB Program Development& Strategic InitiativesSlide2
Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected
to completely displace the status quo
, forever changing the way we live and work.
TRB Hot Topic: TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESSlide3
Internet
, personal computer, email, smartphone, GPS, big
data
TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:
General ExamplesSlide4
Connected/automated vehicles, shared vehicles, advanced versions of on-demand shared ride and micro-transit services,
NextGen
, unmanned aerial systems, cog in “internet-of-things
”
TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:
TransportationSlide5
Key 2015 TRB
Activities:
Transformational Technologies
EU-US Symposium “Towards Road Transport Automation” April 14-15, 2015; Washington, DC
Automated
Vehicle Symposium: July 20-24, 2015; Ann Arbor, MI
Impacts of Automated Vehicles on State and Local Transportation Agencies (NCHRP 20-102)
Review of USDOT Report on Connected Vehicle Initiative Communications Systems Deployment
UTC Symposium on Connected/Automated Vehicles, November 4-5, 2015; Washington, DC
Urban Mobility Systems: TRB Policy Study (December 2015)Slide6
Virginia is a Leader!
Virginia Tech
& UVA
I-395 Demonstration (October 20, 2015)
VDOT Lead for State Pooled Fund StudySlide7
Connected & Automated Vehicles:Some Points (& Counterpoints)
From TRB Conferences, Meetings, and Research Projects Slide8
Automated Vehicles Will Be Available to the Public by 2020Slide9
Automated Vehicles Will Be NOT Available to the Public That SoonSlide10
Automated Vehicles Will Be the Biggest Transformational Change Since the Invention of the Automobile
4Slide11
Automated Vehicles May NOT Significantly Change Transportation
Source: James Anderson, Rand
5Slide12
This Will be the Next Federal Interstate-Type Program
6Slide13
Not! Others Will be Leading the Way
7Slide14
These Vehicles Must be Connected with the Infrastructure to be Successful
8Slide15
Automated Vehicles Can Succeed on Their Own
9
Something everywhere
vs.everything somewhereSlide16
Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate 80 Percent of Serious Accidents
10Slide17
The Potential Safety Impacts of These Vehicles Can’t be Taken for Granted
11Slide18
Connected – Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate Congestion
12Slide19
Traffic Congestion Will Remain a Serious Problem – And Might Get Worse
13Slide20
Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Be Better for the Environment & Land Use
14Slide21
These Vehicles Will Negatively Affect the Environment & Land Use
15Slide22
Will Enable Data Driven Solutions
14Slide23
Big Data Will Create Its Own Issues
15
Collection
, sharing, and analysis
OwnershipPrivacy and securityReserved spectrumSlide24
Some Things We Can Agree On!
The truth lies somewhere in the middle
We have more questions than answers – need research!
Need to get startedSlide25
Between Public and Private Mobility:Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services-A Policy Study-Slide26
What Are Technology-Enabled Services?Bike-sharingCar-sharingRidesharing/Transportation Network
CompaniesUber, Lyft, and SidecarMicrotransit
Bridj
, Leap, Chariot, LoupSlide27
What is a TNC?Transportation Network CompanyMost common are Uber, Lyft, and SidecarAllows a passenger to request and pay for a ride via a smartphone
appSlide28
Transportation Network Companies: Common ModelMost common (and contentious) version connects riders with individuals driving their own personal vehiclesTNCs take a percentage (generally 15-30%) of each fare
Driver keeps the restSlide29
Rise of the TNCsUber (launched in 2010)$50B valuation58 countries, 300+ cities
160,000 driversMore Uber cars in NYC than taxisLyft
$2B valuation
65 cities in the U.S.Has not released other numbersSidecar10 cities in the U.S.Slide30
Impact on Travel Volume?Too early to tellSan Francisco Survey:1/3 of TNC users would have taken transit
About 8% induced travel
Much of data is in private sectorSlide31
Access & Equity: ConcernsPotential equity concerns for:Unbanked populations: TNCs require a credit card to be on file.
Those without smart phonesDisabled users. TNCs are not required to have wheelchair accessible vehicles.Slide32
Access & Equity: Potential UpsidesTNCs also improve access for some populations
Many paratransit users can use TNCs instead with far faster pickup times
Paratransit services are a major cost for transit properties
Many cities/neighborhoods do not have readily available street-hail cabs Slide33
Safety : DriverBackground ChecksTaxi industry: Fingerprint driversUber and
Lyft: Run checks with name, birthday, SSN, and driver’s license numberWhich is better?Currently
a (spirited) policy
debateLittle analytical evidence of the effectiveness of either methodSlide34
Safety: Information AvailabilityPassengers have: driver’s name, photo, rating, car type, and license plate numberDrivers
have: passenger name and photo (if passenger uploaded one), and have recourse in the event of an incident (such as a bar pickup getting sick)Trip is tracked from passenger request to driver match to passenger pickup to passenger
drop-off.
Passenger is emailed a detailed receipt.Slide35
Safety Issues: DUIsMany claims about Uber/Lyft/Sidecar reducing DUIsCorrelation between arrival in a city and reduction in DUIs, especially among those under 40
No rigorous analysis yetCould be due to a combination
of factorsSlide36
Labor IssuesTNC employees currently classified as contractors (“IRS1099” employees)Flexibility to work or not, set hours
All expenses fall to driver
Vehicle
Phone/data planHealth insuranceOtherSlide37
Labor Issues: Rulings to DateJune 2015: California Labor Commission ruled one Uber driver is an employeeUber has appealed
Other lawsuits are pending.
Employee vs. contractor ruling could have significant effects on business models of TNCsSlide38
Shared Vehicles: What is the Ultimate Vision?Beyond a ride-hailing serviceChanging the car ownership model
Providing critical first-mile/last-mile accessRevolutionizing carpooling & transitLeveraging driverless vehicle technologiesSlide39
Challenges to Public AgenciesTechnology TsunamiFacilitate Innovation vs. Public SafetyRevenue Impacts
Taxi medallionsParkingTraffic Fines
Investments in Traditional Transit
Adapting Infrastructure & Land UseSlide40
TRB Policy Study“Between Public and Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services”Summarizes state of the
practiceRecommendations for policy-makers, planners, and legislatorsRelease in late
2015Slide41
Are our traditional research processes nimble enough to prepare public agencies in an age of transformational technologies?
Final Question: Transformational Technologies & ResearchSlide42
Questions?
Mark Normanmnorman@nas.edu