Transformation Technologies in Transportation

Presentation on theme: "Transformation Technologies in Transportation"— Presentation transcript:

Transformation Technologies in TransportationMark R. Norman, P.E.Director, TRB Program Development& Strategic Initiatives

Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected to completely displace the status quo, forever changing the way we live and work.

TRB Hot Topic: TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES

Internet, personal computer, email, smartphone, GPS, big data

TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:General Examples

Connected/automated vehicles, shared vehicles, advanced versions of on-demand shared ride and micro-transit services, NextGen, unmanned aerial systems, cog in “internet-of-things”

TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:Transportation

Key 2015 TRB

Activities:Transformational Technologies

EU-US Symposium “Towards Road Transport Automation” April 14-15, 2015; Washington, DCAutomated Vehicle Symposium: July 20-24, 2015; Ann Arbor, MIImpacts of Automated Vehicles on State and Local Transportation Agencies (NCHRP 20-102)Review of USDOT Report on Connected Vehicle Initiative Communications Systems DeploymentUTC Symposium on Connected/Automated Vehicles, November 4-5, 2015; Washington, DCUrban Mobility Systems: TRB Policy Study (December 2015)

Virginia is a Leader!

Virginia Tech & UVAI-395 Demonstration (October 20, 2015)VDOT Lead for State Pooled Fund Study

Connected & Automated Vehicles:Some Points (& Counterpoints)

From TRB Conferences, Meetings, and Research Projects

Automated Vehicles Will Be Available to the Public by 2020

Automated Vehicles Will Be NOT Available to the Public That Soon

Automated Vehicles Will Be the Biggest Transformational Change Since the Invention of the Automobile

4

Automated Vehicles May NOT Significantly Change Transportation

Source: James Anderson, Rand

5

This Will be the Next Federal Interstate-Type Program

6

Not! Others Will be Leading the Way

7

These Vehicles Must be Connected with the Infrastructure to be Successful

8

Automated Vehicles Can Succeed on Their Own

9

Something everywhere

vs.

everything somewhere

Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate 80 Percent of Serious Accidents

10

The Potential Safety Impacts of These Vehicles Can’t be Taken for Granted

11

Connected – Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate Congestion

12

Traffic Congestion Will Remain a Serious Problem – And Might Get Worse

13

Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Be Better for the Environment & Land Use

14

These Vehicles Will Negatively Affect the Environment & Land Use

15

Will Enable Data Driven Solutions

14

Big Data Will Create Its Own Issues

15

Collection

, sharing, and analysis

Ownership

Privacy and security

Reserved spectrum

Some Things We Can Agree On!

The truth lies somewhere in the middle

We have more questions than answers – need research!Need to get started

Between Public and Private Mobility:Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services-A Policy Study-

What Are Technology-Enabled Services?

Bike-sharingCar-sharingRidesharing/Transportation Network CompaniesUber, Lyft, and SidecarMicrotransitBridj, Leap, Chariot, Loup

What is a TNC?

Transportation Network CompanyMost common are Uber, Lyft, and SidecarAllows a passenger to request and pay for a ride via a smartphone app

Transportation Network Companies: Common Model

Most common (and contentious) version connects riders with individuals driving their own personal vehiclesTNCs take a percentage (generally 15-30%) of each fareDriver keeps the rest

Rise of the TNCs

Uber (launched in 2010)$50B valuation58 countries, 300+ cities160,000 driversMore Uber cars in NYC than taxisLyft$2B valuation65 cities in the U.S.Has not released other numbersSidecar10 cities in the U.S.

Impact on Travel Volume?

Too early to tellSan Francisco Survey:1/3 of TNC users would have taken transitAbout 8% induced travel

Much of data is in private sector

Access & Equity: Concerns

Potential equity concerns for:Unbanked populations: TNCs require a credit card to be on file.Those without smart phonesDisabled users. TNCs are not required to have wheelchair accessible vehicles.

Access & Equity: Potential Upsides

TNCs also improve access for some populations

Many paratransit users can use TNCs instead with far faster pickup times

Paratransit services are a major cost for transit properties

Many cities/neighborhoods do not have

readily available

street-hail cabs

Safety : DriverBackground Checks

Taxi industry: Fingerprint driversUber and Lyft: Run checks with name, birthday, SSN, and driver’s license numberWhich is better?Currently a (spirited) policy debateLittle analytical evidence of the effectiveness of either method

Safety: Information Availability

Passengers have: driver’s name, photo, rating, car type, and license plate numberDrivers have: passenger name and photo (if passenger uploaded one), and have recourse in the event of an incident (such as a bar pickup getting sick)Trip is tracked from passenger request to driver match to passenger pickup to passenger drop-off.Passenger is emailed a detailed receipt.

Safety Issues: DUIs

Many claims about Uber/Lyft/Sidecar reducing DUIsCorrelation between arrival in a city and reduction in DUIs, especially among those under 40No rigorous analysis yetCould be due to a combination of factors

Labor Issues

TNC employees currently classified as contractors (“IRS1099” employees)Flexibility to work or not, set hoursAll expenses fall to driver

Vehicle

P

hone/data plan

H

ealth insurance

Other

Labor Issues: Rulings to Date

June 2015: California Labor Commission ruled one Uber driver is an employeeUber has appealedOther lawsuits are pending.

Employee vs. contractor ruling could have significant effects on business models of TNCs

Shared Vehicles: What is the Ultimate Vision?

Beyond a ride-hailing serviceChanging the car ownership modelProviding critical first-mile/last-mile accessRevolutionizing carpooling & transitLeveraging driverless vehicle technologies

Challenges to Public Agencies

Technology TsunamiFacilitate Innovation vs. Public SafetyRevenue ImpactsTaxi medallionsParkingTraffic FinesInvestments in Traditional TransitAdapting Infrastructure & Land Use

TRB Policy Study

“Between Public and Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services”Summarizes state of the practiceRecommendations for policy-makers, planners, and legislatorsRelease in late 2015

Are our traditional research processes nimble enough to prepare public agencies in an age of transformational technologies?

Final Question: Transformational Technologies & Research

Questions?

Mark Norman

mnorman@nas.edu