Transformation Technologies in Transportation

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Mark R. Norman, P.E.. Director, TRB Program Development. & Strategic Initiatives. Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected . to completely displace the status quo. ID: 543177 Download Presentation

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Transformation Technologies in Transportation




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Presentations text content in Transformation Technologies in Transportation

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Transformation Technologies in TransportationMark R. Norman, P.E.Director, TRB Program Development& Strategic Initiatives

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Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected to completely displace the status quo, forever changing the way we live and work.

TRB Hot Topic: TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES

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Internet, personal computer, email, smartphone, GPS, big data

TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:General Examples

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Connected/automated vehicles, shared vehicles, advanced versions of on-demand shared ride and micro-transit services, NextGen, unmanned aerial systems, cog in “internet-of-things”

TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:Transportation

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Key 2015 TRB

Activities:Transformational Technologies

EU-US Symposium “Towards Road Transport Automation” April 14-15, 2015; Washington, DCAutomated Vehicle Symposium: July 20-24, 2015; Ann Arbor, MIImpacts of Automated Vehicles on State and Local Transportation Agencies (NCHRP 20-102)Review of USDOT Report on Connected Vehicle Initiative Communications Systems DeploymentUTC Symposium on Connected/Automated Vehicles, November 4-5, 2015; Washington, DCUrban Mobility Systems: TRB Policy Study (December 2015)

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Virginia is a Leader!

Virginia Tech & UVAI-395 Demonstration (October 20, 2015)VDOT Lead for State Pooled Fund Study

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Connected & Automated Vehicles:Some Points (& Counterpoints)

From TRB Conferences, Meetings, and Research Projects

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Automated Vehicles Will Be Available to the Public by 2020

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Automated Vehicles Will Be NOT Available to the Public That Soon

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Automated Vehicles Will Be the Biggest Transformational Change Since the Invention of the Automobile

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Automated Vehicles May NOT Significantly Change Transportation

Source: James Anderson, Rand

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This Will be the Next Federal Interstate-Type Program

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Not! Others Will be Leading the Way

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These Vehicles Must be Connected with the Infrastructure to be Successful

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Automated Vehicles Can Succeed on Their Own

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Something everywhere

vs.

everything somewhere

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Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate 80 Percent of Serious Accidents

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The Potential Safety Impacts of These Vehicles Can’t be Taken for Granted

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Connected – Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate Congestion

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Traffic Congestion Will Remain a Serious Problem – And Might Get Worse

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Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Be Better for the Environment & Land Use

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These Vehicles Will Negatively Affect the Environment & Land Use

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Will Enable Data Driven Solutions

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Big Data Will Create Its Own Issues

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Collection

, sharing, and analysis

Ownership

Privacy and security

Reserved spectrum

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Some Things We Can Agree On!

The truth lies somewhere in the middle

We have more questions than answers – need research!Need to get started

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Between Public and Private Mobility:Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services-A Policy Study-

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What Are Technology-Enabled Services?

Bike-sharingCar-sharingRidesharing/Transportation Network CompaniesUber, Lyft, and SidecarMicrotransitBridj, Leap, Chariot, Loup

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What is a TNC?

Transportation Network CompanyMost common are Uber, Lyft, and SidecarAllows a passenger to request and pay for a ride via a smartphone app

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Transportation Network Companies: Common Model

Most common (and contentious) version connects riders with individuals driving their own personal vehiclesTNCs take a percentage (generally 15-30%) of each fareDriver keeps the rest

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Rise of the TNCs

Uber (launched in 2010)$50B valuation58 countries, 300+ cities160,000 driversMore Uber cars in NYC than taxisLyft$2B valuation65 cities in the U.S.Has not released other numbersSidecar10 cities in the U.S.

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Impact on Travel Volume?

Too early to tellSan Francisco Survey:1/3 of TNC users would have taken transitAbout 8% induced travel

Much of data is in private sector

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Access & Equity: Concerns

Potential equity concerns for:Unbanked populations: TNCs require a credit card to be on file.Those without smart phonesDisabled users. TNCs are not required to have wheelchair accessible vehicles.

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Access & Equity: Potential Upsides

TNCs also improve access for some populations

Many paratransit users can use TNCs instead with far faster pickup times

Paratransit services are a major cost for transit properties

Many cities/neighborhoods do not have

readily available

street-hail cabs

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Safety : DriverBackground Checks

Taxi industry: Fingerprint driversUber and Lyft: Run checks with name, birthday, SSN, and driver’s license numberWhich is better?Currently a (spirited) policy debateLittle analytical evidence of the effectiveness of either method

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Safety: Information Availability

Passengers have: driver’s name, photo, rating, car type, and license plate numberDrivers have: passenger name and photo (if passenger uploaded one), and have recourse in the event of an incident (such as a bar pickup getting sick)Trip is tracked from passenger request to driver match to passenger pickup to passenger drop-off.Passenger is emailed a detailed receipt.

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Safety Issues: DUIs

Many claims about Uber/Lyft/Sidecar reducing DUIsCorrelation between arrival in a city and reduction in DUIs, especially among those under 40No rigorous analysis yetCould be due to a combination of factors

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Labor Issues

TNC employees currently classified as contractors (“IRS1099” employees)Flexibility to work or not, set hoursAll expenses fall to driver

Vehicle

P

hone/data plan

H

ealth insurance

Other

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Labor Issues: Rulings to Date

June 2015: California Labor Commission ruled one Uber driver is an employeeUber has appealedOther lawsuits are pending.

Employee vs. contractor ruling could have significant effects on business models of TNCs

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Shared Vehicles: What is the Ultimate Vision?

Beyond a ride-hailing serviceChanging the car ownership modelProviding critical first-mile/last-mile accessRevolutionizing carpooling & transitLeveraging driverless vehicle technologies

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Challenges to Public Agencies

Technology TsunamiFacilitate Innovation vs. Public SafetyRevenue ImpactsTaxi medallionsParkingTraffic FinesInvestments in Traditional TransitAdapting Infrastructure & Land Use

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TRB Policy Study

“Between Public and Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services”Summarizes state of the practiceRecommendations for policy-makers, planners, and legislatorsRelease in late 2015

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Are our traditional research processes nimble enough to prepare public agencies in an age of transformational technologies?

Final Question: Transformational Technologies & Research

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Questions?

Mark Norman

mnorman@nas.edu


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