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Transformation Technologies in Transportation

Mark R. Norman, P.E.. Director, TRB Program Development. & Strategic Initiatives. Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected . to completely displace the status quo.

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Transformation Technologies in Transportation






Presentation on theme: "Transformation Technologies in Transportation"— Presentation transcript:

Slide1

Transformation Technologies in TransportationMark R. Norman, P.E.Director, TRB Program Development& Strategic InitiativesSlide2

Transformational, or “disruptive” technologies, are those that can be expected

to completely displace the status quo

, forever changing the way we live and work.

TRB Hot Topic: TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIESSlide3

Internet

, personal computer, email, smartphone, GPS, big

data

TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:

General ExamplesSlide4

Connected/automated vehicles, shared vehicles, advanced versions of on-demand shared ride and micro-transit services,

NextGen

, unmanned aerial systems, cog in “internet-of-things

TRANSFORMATIONAL TECHNOLOGIES:

TransportationSlide5

Key 2015 TRB

Activities:

Transformational Technologies

EU-US Symposium “Towards Road Transport Automation” April 14-15, 2015; Washington, DC

Automated

Vehicle Symposium: July 20-24, 2015; Ann Arbor, MI

Impacts of Automated Vehicles on State and Local Transportation Agencies (NCHRP 20-102)

Review of USDOT Report on Connected Vehicle Initiative Communications Systems Deployment

UTC Symposium on Connected/Automated Vehicles, November 4-5, 2015; Washington, DC

Urban Mobility Systems: TRB Policy Study (December 2015)Slide6

Virginia is a Leader!

Virginia Tech

& UVA

I-395 Demonstration (October 20, 2015)

VDOT Lead for State Pooled Fund StudySlide7

Connected & Automated Vehicles:Some Points (& Counterpoints)

From TRB Conferences, Meetings, and Research Projects Slide8

Automated Vehicles Will Be Available to the Public by 2020Slide9

Automated Vehicles Will Be NOT Available to the Public That SoonSlide10

Automated Vehicles Will Be the Biggest Transformational Change Since the Invention of the Automobile

4Slide11

Automated Vehicles May NOT Significantly Change Transportation

Source: James Anderson, Rand

5Slide12

This Will be the Next Federal Interstate-Type Program

6Slide13

Not! Others Will be Leading the Way

7Slide14

These Vehicles Must be Connected with the Infrastructure to be Successful

8Slide15

Automated Vehicles Can Succeed on Their Own

9

Something everywhere

vs.everything somewhereSlide16

Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate 80 Percent of Serious Accidents

10Slide17

The Potential Safety Impacts of These Vehicles Can’t be Taken for Granted

11Slide18

Connected – Automated Vehicles Will Eliminate Congestion

12Slide19

Traffic Congestion Will Remain a Serious Problem – And Might Get Worse

13Slide20

Connected-Automated Vehicles Will Be Better for the Environment & Land Use

14Slide21

These Vehicles Will Negatively Affect the Environment & Land Use

15Slide22

Will Enable Data Driven Solutions

14Slide23

Big Data Will Create Its Own Issues

15

Collection

, sharing, and analysis

OwnershipPrivacy and securityReserved spectrumSlide24

Some Things We Can Agree On!

The truth lies somewhere in the middle

We have more questions than answers – need research!

Need to get startedSlide25

Between Public and Private Mobility:Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services-A Policy Study-Slide26

What Are Technology-Enabled Services?Bike-sharingCar-sharingRidesharing/Transportation Network

CompaniesUber, Lyft, and SidecarMicrotransit

Bridj

, Leap, Chariot, LoupSlide27

What is a TNC?Transportation Network CompanyMost common are Uber, Lyft, and SidecarAllows a passenger to request and pay for a ride via a smartphone

appSlide28

Transportation Network Companies: Common ModelMost common (and contentious) version connects riders with individuals driving their own personal vehiclesTNCs take a percentage (generally 15-30%) of each fare

Driver keeps the restSlide29

Rise of the TNCsUber (launched in 2010)$50B valuation58 countries, 300+ cities

160,000 driversMore Uber cars in NYC than taxisLyft

$2B valuation

65 cities in the U.S.Has not released other numbersSidecar10 cities in the U.S.Slide30

Impact on Travel Volume?Too early to tellSan Francisco Survey:1/3 of TNC users would have taken transit

About 8% induced travel

Much of data is in private sectorSlide31

Access & Equity: ConcernsPotential equity concerns for:Unbanked populations: TNCs require a credit card to be on file.

Those without smart phonesDisabled users. TNCs are not required to have wheelchair accessible vehicles.Slide32

Access & Equity: Potential UpsidesTNCs also improve access for some populations

Many paratransit users can use TNCs instead with far faster pickup times

Paratransit services are a major cost for transit properties

Many cities/neighborhoods do not have readily available street-hail cabs Slide33

Safety : DriverBackground ChecksTaxi industry: Fingerprint driversUber and

Lyft: Run checks with name, birthday, SSN, and driver’s license numberWhich is better?Currently

a (spirited) policy

debateLittle analytical evidence of the effectiveness of either methodSlide34

Safety: Information AvailabilityPassengers have: driver’s name, photo, rating, car type, and license plate numberDrivers

have: passenger name and photo (if passenger uploaded one), and have recourse in the event of an incident (such as a bar pickup getting sick)Trip is tracked from passenger request to driver match to passenger pickup to passenger

drop-off.

Passenger is emailed a detailed receipt.Slide35

Safety Issues: DUIsMany claims about Uber/Lyft/Sidecar reducing DUIsCorrelation between arrival in a city and reduction in DUIs, especially among those under 40

No rigorous analysis yetCould be due to a combination

of factorsSlide36

Labor IssuesTNC employees currently classified as contractors (“IRS1099” employees)Flexibility to work or not, set hours

All expenses fall to driver

Vehicle

Phone/data planHealth insuranceOtherSlide37

Labor Issues: Rulings to DateJune 2015: California Labor Commission ruled one Uber driver is an employeeUber has appealed

Other lawsuits are pending.

Employee vs. contractor ruling could have significant effects on business models of TNCsSlide38

Shared Vehicles: What is the Ultimate Vision?Beyond a ride-hailing serviceChanging the car ownership model

Providing critical first-mile/last-mile accessRevolutionizing carpooling & transitLeveraging driverless vehicle technologiesSlide39

Challenges to Public AgenciesTechnology TsunamiFacilitate Innovation vs. Public SafetyRevenue Impacts

Taxi medallionsParkingTraffic Fines

Investments in Traditional Transit

Adapting Infrastructure & Land UseSlide40

TRB Policy Study“Between Public and Private Mobility: Examining the Rise of Technology-Enabled Services”Summarizes state of the

practiceRecommendations for policy-makers, planners, and legislatorsRelease in late

2015Slide41

Are our traditional research processes nimble enough to prepare public agencies in an age of transformational technologies?

Final Question: Transformational Technologies & ResearchSlide42

Questions?

Mark Normanmnorman@nas.edu