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IMPLANRIMSIIandREMI


EconomicImpactModelsComparisonsinContextofEB-5AnalysisPreparedbyAKRFIncwwwakrfcomMay2013EconomicImpactModelsThreeKeyPlayersTherearethreewidely-utilizedmodelsforeconomicimpactanalysis1RIMS-IIRegionalIn

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Document on Subject : "IMPLANRIMSIIandREMI"— Transcript:

1 IMPLAN,RIMS-II,andREMI EconomicImpactMod
IMPLAN,RIMS-II,andREMI EconomicImpactModels Comparisons,inContextofEB-5Analysis PreparedbyAKRF,Inc. www.akrf.com May2013 EconomicImpactModels:ThreeKeyPlayers Therearethreewidely-utilizedmodelsforeconomicimpact analysis: 1)RIMS-II(R egional I nput-Output M odeling S ystem ) 2)IMPLAN(IM pactAnalysisfor PLAN ing ) 3)REMI(R egional E conomic M odels, I nc. ) EachmodelusesasaprimaryfoundationtheUSDepartmentof CommerceInput-Outputtables,whichwerefirstdevelopedin the1970s. ThesimplestmodelisRIMSandthemostcomplexisREMI, whichlayerseconometricmodelingtechniquesontothebasic input-outputmodeling. Input-OutputModeling:TheFundamentals • Thediagrampresentedonthenextpageprovidesaconceptualoverviewofhow input-outputmodelswork. • Themodelsstartwithadirecteffect.Thedirecteffectcanbeexpressedaseithera numberofjobs(e.g.,10jobsatanaccountingfirmthathavemovedintotheregion) oranexpendi

2 ture(e.g.,thefirm’sannualoperatinge
ture(e.g.,thefirm’sannualoperatingexpenditures). • Someofthedollaramountassociatedwiththatdirecteffectwillrepresentlocal purchases–thatis,purchasesthatwillgenerateadditionaleconomicimpactswithin thelocaleconomy.Therest,showningrayontheslide,eitherleavesthelocal economyorisretainedthroughsavings,andwillnotleadtofurtherspending. • Localpurchasesarebroadlydividedintothepurchaseofgoodsandservicesandthe purchaseoflabor.Bothsetoffrepeatedroundsofeconomicactivity. • Bywayofexample:Anaccountingfirmpurchasespaperfromtheofficesupplystore, theofficesupplystorepurchasesemployeeuniformsfromalocalclothingstore,the clothingstorepaysalocalcleaningservicetocleanthestore,andsoon.Eachround ofinter-industrypurchasesgeneratesfewerlocaleffectsuntilallofthemoney originallyspentleaksoutoftheregion. • Thisistypicallyreferredtoasthe multipliereffect orthe rippleeffect

3 . • Localpurchaseoflaborworksinthes
. • Localpurchaseoflaborworksinthesamemanner,withworkersspendingtheir incomesonallmannerofgoodsandservicessuchasfood,clothing,school,housing, andvisitstothedoctor. • Thesumofthedirect,indirect,andinducedeffectsequalsthetotaleconomicimpact. Inter- Industry Purchases Input-OutputModeling:ConceptualOverview Direct Effect (e.g.,new jobs, operational expenditures) Non-Local Purchases (notappliedto multipliers) Local Purchases Labor Income Spending MultiplierEffect Note:DiagramisillustrativeandisintendedtoprovideanoverviewofInput-Outputmodeling,notafull representationofmodelinputsandstructure. Indirect Impact Non-local purchases Savings Induced Impact Direct +Indirect +Induced Total Impact Non-local purchases Non-local labor (commuters) Savings Non-local labor (commuters) RIMS-II AdvantagesofRIMS-IILimitationsofRIMS-II • Transparency–RIMSisessentiallyasetof m

4 ultipliers.Thesemultipliersareapplied ma
ultipliers.Thesemultipliersareapplied manuallybytheuser,facilitating methodologicaltransparency. • Cost–Inexpensive($275perregion,witha regionconsistingofoneormore contiguouscounties) • Easeofuse–Nouser-friendlyinterface. • Breakdownofimpacts–RIMSanalysisshowstotaleconomicimpact,but doesnotshowabreakdownofimpactsbyindustry(e.g.,100newhoteljobs generates9indirectandinducedjobsinfoodservices,2newjobsin advertising,etc.).Inaddition,theusermustseparatelyapplydifferentsetsof multiplierstoyieldindirectversusinducedimpacts. • Adaptability–MultipliertablesaregeneratedbyBEA.Usercannotmodify industryproductionfunctions(dictatinghowmuchofwhichproductsand servicesoneindustrypurchasesfromallotherindustries)ortradeflow assumptionstoreflectparticularbusiness/industrybeinganalyzed,andcan notimportnewindustriestotheregionbeinganalyzed(importantifthe

5 regiondoesnotincludethetypeofbusinessfor
regiondoesnotincludethetypeofbusinessforwhichtheimpactanalysisis beingconducted). • Static–Themultipliersreflectindustrylinkagesinalocaleconomyatagiven time.Theydonotaccountforpriceelasticities,changesinconsumeror industrybehaviorbasedonadirecteffect,etc. • Fiscalimpact–Doesnotincludeinformationneededforestimatingfiscal (tax)impacts. • • Time–Totaleconomicimpactsarepresented;timerequiredforthatimpact toberealized(forallrippleeffectstocomplete)isunspecified. YearDeveloped:1970s Owner:U.S.Government(USDepartmentofCommerce) TypeofModel:Input-output IMPLAN AdvantagesofIMPLANLimitationsofIMPLAN • Easeofuse–IMPLANisamodelingsystem(ratherthana setofmultipliersthatneedtobeappliedmanuallybyuser, asforRIMS) • Adaptability–Usercanmodifyproductionfunctionsand tradeflowassumptions,andintroducenewindustriesto theregionbeinganalyzed.

6 • Multi-regionmodeling–Userca
• Multi-regionmodeling–Usercanstudytheeffectsof changesinoneregionontheeconomyofanotherregion. • Fiscalimpact–Includesfiscal(tax)impactfunction.(Note: AlthoughIMPLANoffersfiscalimpacts,AKRFestimates theseindependentofthemodelformorereliableresults.) • Smallgeographies–Analysiscanbedoneforgeographies comprisedofzipcodes,notjustcountiesorstates. • Breakdownofimpacts–IMPLANshowsbreakdownof impactsbyindustry,anddirect,indirect,andinduced impactsononescreen. • Transparency–BecauseIMPLANisamodelingsystemthat doesnotrequiretheusertoselectandmanuallyapply multipliers,theprocessmayappeartobelesstransparentto reviewerswhoarenotexperiencedinIMPLAN. • Static–AswithRIMS-II,IMPLANmultipliersreflectindustry linkagesinalocaleconomyatagiventime.Doesnotaccount forpriceelasticities,changesinconsumerorindustrybehavior basedonadirect

7 effect,etc. • Cost–Slightlymor
effect,etc. • Cost–SlightlymoreexpensivethanRIMS-II($350foracounty; $640forastate;additionalpackagesavailableaswell) althoughmuchlessexpensivethanREMI • Time–AswithRIMS-II,totaleconomicimpactsarepresented; timerequiredforthatimpacttoberealized(forallripple effectstocomplete)isunspecified. YearDeveloped:1984 Owner:Private(TheIMPLANGroupLLC–formerlyMIG,Inc.) TypeofModel:Input-output REMI AdvantagesofREMILimitationsofREMI • Dynamic-Adynamicgeneralequilibriummodelwith multiplefeedbackloops,whichcanforecastintothe future. • Complexity-Combinesthefunctionsofaninput- outputmodelwithadditionalequationsthatdescribe relationshipsbetweenmultipleeconomicvariables suchasemployment,prices,andincome. • Time–REMIestimatestheeconomicimpactsthat wouldoccureachyearovertheanalysisperiod. • Cost–Expensive($17,000forsinglegeographymodel usi

8 ng3-digitNAICSdata) • Complexity
ng3-digitNAICSdata) • Complexity–WhileanyREMImodelcanbestrippedback sothatitfunctionsasamorebasicinput-outputmodel (similartoRIMSorIMPLAN),thecomplexityofthemodel amountstooverkillformostnon-academicandnon-policy orientedanalyses. • Transparency–Thecomplexityofthemodelmakesit moredifficulttoexplainthemodelingprocessandoutline basicassumptions. YearDeveloped:1980 Owner:Private(REMI) TypeofModel:Hybridofinput-outputandeconometric ModelApplications RIMS-IIandIMPLANarewellsuitedforEB-5analyses(aswellasother project-specificanalyses) IMPLANcanalsobeusedtoanalyzeeconomicimpactofpolicychanges, butissomewhatconstrainedbyits“static”nature. IMPLANadvantagesincontextofEB-5:Canbecreatedwithmore geographicspecificity(regioncanbedefinedwithsubsetsofcounties); Modelscanbemodifiedbyusertoincludenewindustriesormakegeneric industrybuiltintothemodelfunctionmorel

9 ikethespecificbusiness enterprisebeingan
ikethespecificbusiness enterprisebeinganalyzed. RIMS-IIadvantageincontextofEB-5:Easierto“showyourwork.” WhilemultipliersunderbothRIMS-IIandIMPLANaregenerallysimilar, thereisevidenceofslightlyhigherRIMS-IImultipliersforcertainindustry sectors REMIiswellsuitedforevaluatingactions/initiativesthatwouldchangemarket dynamicsandconsumerbehaviors.REMIoffersanumberoftailoredmodeling productsincluding: PI+forevaluatingthetotalregionaleffectofanygivenpolicyinitiative. TransSightforevaluatingtheeconomiceffectsofchangestotransportation systems. TaxPIforevaluatingthefiscalandeconomiceffectsoftaxpolicychanges. Resources RIMSuserguide: https://www.bea.gov/regional/pdf/rims/RIMSII_ User_Guide.pdf IMPLANwebsite: http://implan.com/V4/Index.php REMIwebsite: http://www.remi.com/the-remi- model AKRF: www.akrf.com JohnNeill,VicePresident •Email:jneill@akrf.com •Phone:646-388-