He warns that unless the constitution is changed many of us will lose not only ways of thinking but also ways of eating and some of us will lose our very lives KEYWORDS food crisis climate change women farmers hegemony constitutional change Thoughtc ID: 81191
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anexplanationofcausesandaconcomitantprog-nosisforthefuture.Thefurtheringofneo-liberalhegemonyhasinvolvedtherevivificationofcer-tainexplanations,andthesmotheringofothers,inanattempttomakesomesolutionsthinkableandothersnot.ItisastraightforwardlyOrwellianprocess,andonethatseemstobegainingground.Onewaythathegemonicexplanationsworkisthroughthenaturalizingofcauses.Manypundits(includingyourauthor^(Patel,2008,Guardian.-co.uk,15April))havestoopedtoclicheindescrib-ingthecurrentcrisisasaperfectstorm.Thelanguageis,however,profoundlyunsatisfactory:itsuggeststhatthecrisishasaboutittheairofsomethingnaturalandunpreventable.Infact,thecausesfortodaystempesthavebeenmanufac-turedoverdecadesbysomeverydeliberate,cruelandunnaturalacts.Thepresentationofthesehis-toriesasimmutablefactorsinaperfectstormmakesitallthehardertothinkaboutdoingthingsdifferently.AgrofuelsPerhapstheeasiestplacetostartisthepolicyinwhichittakestheleastefforttoimaginechange:agrofuels.TherecentleakingofaWorldBankreportinwhichupto75percentoftheincreaseinthepriceoffoodmightbeattributedtoagrofuels(Mitchell,2008)hashobbledthecasethatagro-fuelsarebenign.PresidentBushsassurancesear-lierthisyear,thatlessthan4percentofthepriceincreaseswereattributabletoagrofuelspolicy,havebeenrubbishedevenbyhispoliticalallies^RobertZoellickoftheWorldBankestimatesthattheagrofuelscomponentinthecurrentfoodcrisisisaround25percent.ThislendscredencetotheindependentlycalculatedIFPRIfigureofacontri-butionof30percenttonetfoodpriceincreases(Rosegrant,2008).Indeed,withthecurrentbarrageofcriticismagainstthem,itishardtorememberatimewhenagrofuelsseemedasensiblepolicy.Yetthepolicyonceseemednotonlyreasonablebutalsodesir-able^otherwiseitwouldneverhaveadvancedasfarasithas.WhenfirstfloatedintheUnitedStates,thepossibilityofturningplantmatterintofueltreatedtwoveryseparatepolicyanxieties.First,suchfuelswouldreducetheamountofCOemittedbyburningfossilfuels.Second,beingre-newable,theywouldprovideenergyindepen-denceforcountriesthatwantedtoweanthemselvesawayfromoilbutnotfromtheinternalcombustionengine.Bothhopeshavebeendashed.Ithasbeenandcontinuestobeproventhatagrofuelsproduceacarbondebtintheirproduction(Fargioneetal2008).Second,policymakershaveconfusedre-newabilitywithsustainability.Certainlyagrofuelscanbecoaxedoutofthegroundagainandagain^theyarerenewable.Buttheycannotbesus-tained^forittakesmoreenergytogrowandpro-cessthemthantheyrelease(Holt-GimenezandKenfield,2008).Agrofuelsthirdfailureliesintheireconomicconsequences.Theeffectofagrofuels,particularlywhenitwasannouncedintheUnitedStatesthattheywouldbetherecipientofgovernmentlar-gesse,wastostimulateafrenzyamongagribusi-nessprocessors.Farmers,too,gotinontheaction,switchingproductionofothercropstocorn,anddivertingcornproductionfromfoodtofuel.Theeffectwastobumpupthepriceofothergrains,andtocreateaspeculativebubbleincorn,boththeyellowvarietiesgrownintheUSandthewhitevarietiesinMexico.Thepriceofbothin-creased,puttingoutofreachthedailystapleforthemajorityofworkingMexicans^thetortilla.InFebruary2007,MexicoCityhostedthefirsttor-tillariotsindecades.Inthefaceofthisevidence,itbecomeseasiertoimagineashiftawayfromagrofuels,especiallyinEurope,wherepolicymakersseemtobemakingaspeedyretreatfrompreviouslyaggressiveposi-tionsontheiradoption.ButintheUnitedStates,itisanelectionyear,andeverypresidentialcandi-datehasendorsedthepolicybecauseitwillbringvotesfromthekeyswing-statesintheMidwest.Thisiswhatwillpassforanenergymanifestoinayearofhighfuelandfoodprices.FossilfuelsThisleadsintothesecondreasonofferedforthecurrentfoodcrisis.WhileitispossibletoimaginethelinksbetweenthefoodcrisisandagrofuelsPatel:FoodandPoverty Revolutionwasaprofoundlypoliticalaffair,moti-vatedbyadesiretoboostproductionatanycosttopreventcommunistinsurrectioninkeydevel-opingcountries.Simultaneously,theGreenRevo-lutionwasatechnologydesignedtoobviatetheneedforsocialchangesthatmighthaveproducedsimilarincreasesinyield^measuressuchaslandreformforinstance(Courvilleetal.,2006).Theal-chemyoftheGreenRevolutionlayintransform-ingfarmoutputwhilekeepinglanddistributionsandquasi-feudalsocialrelationslargelyintact(Perkins,1997).Theconsequencesofthiskindofagriculturearealltooclear.TheUnitedNationsreportsthatgrowersinPunjab,theepicentreoftheGreenRe-volutioninIndia,arefacingruinandacrisisofex-istence(UNDPIndia,2004).Theirlandissubjecttosalination,reducedfertilityandgroundwaterdepletion.Tocombatthese,farmersborrowmoney^oftenatextortionateinterestratesfromlocalmoneylenders^tomaintainlandproductiv-ity.Whenthoseinvestmentsdonotpanout,theyborrowmore.Eventually,somefarmersdespair:Punjabhasoneofthehighestratesoffarmersui-cideinthecountry.Yetthegripoffossil-fuel-intensiveagricultureissopowerfulthatmanyexpertsthinkthatGreenRevolutiontechnology^anditsupdatedform,ge-neticallymodifiedagricultureistheonlywaytofeedtheplanet.DespitetheirbeingpoliticallyboostedattherecentG8andHighLevelFAOSum-mitsinearly2008,thesenotionshavebeensetbackwiththepublicationofareportbytheInter-nationalAssessmentofAgriculturalKnowledge,ScienceandTechnologyforDevelopment(IAASTD,2008).InitiatedbytheWorldBank,thegroupinvolvedrepresentativesfromtheFoodandAgriculturalOrganization,theUnitedNationsDevelopmentProgramme,theUNEnvironmentProgramme,theWorldHealthOrganizationandUNESCO,togetherwithNGOs,theprivatesectorandgovernments.Thestagewassetforthemtofindthattheworldneededmoreindus-trialagricultureorgeneticallymodifiedcrops.Butintheirconclusions,theydamnedGMcropswithsuchfaintpraisethattheindustryrepresentativesstormedoutoftheassessment(Vidal,2008).Itwasablowtotheindustry,butavindicationoftheviewthatagriculturerequiresmorethanex-pertiseinknowingwhattospraywhen.Instead,theassessmentsuggestedthatthefutureofagri-culturaltechnologyliesinarichandcomplexap-preciationforhowecosystemsfunction.Thiskindofunderstandingusesinputsverysparingly,withasubstantiallyreducedcarbonfootprint,higheryieldandamoresustainablefuture,contributinglesstoclimatechangeshocks,andbeingmorere-silienttocertainkindsofcropfailure.Itis,inshort,possibletoimaginethatthepriceoffoodcouldbeunhitchedfromthepriceofoil.Butsuchimaginingistantamounttothoughtcrimeinthenewagriculturaleconomy.MeatanddietThethirdexplanationforthefoodpriceincreaseinvolvesmeatconsumption.Thiswasanargu-mentadvancedbyPresidentBush,whoobservedthatworldwide,thereisincreasingdemand.Thereturnsouttobeprosperityinthedevelopingworld,whichisgood.So,forexample,justasaninterestingthoughtforyou,thereare350millionpeopleinIndiawhoareclassifiedasmiddleclass.Theirmiddleclassislargerthanourentirepopu-lation.Andwhenyoustartgettingwealth,youstartdemandingbetternutritionandbetterfood,andsodemandishigh,andthatcausesthepricetogoup(ExpressNewsService,2008).YettheUSgovernmentsownfigurespointtheotherway,suggestingthatChinahasbeenanetexporterofmeatssince2001,albeitsubsidizedtosomeextentbytherunningdownoflocalgrainstores,andanincreasedimportofsoybeans.AndwhileIndiaschickenconsumptionhasgonefrom0.2milliontonnesto2.3milliontoday,beefcon-sumptionismoreorlessthesameasitwasin1990(Ray,2008,retrievedon1October2008fromhttp://www.agpolicy.org/weekcol/409.html).Yet,unusually,thereissomethingtoBushsanalysis.Bydemandingmeat,760milliontonnesofcerealswillbedivertedtofeedanimalsratherthanpeople^enoughtocovertheworldsfoodshortage14timesover(Monbiot,2008).Thisissueisthreadedintoabroadersetofshiftsknownasthenutritiontransition,inwhichcitizensindevelopingPatel:FoodandPoverty atwork,therehasbeenconsiderableuncertaintyoverthefuturepricesoffood.Inconditionsofrisk,themarketispreparedtopayforcertainty.Inconditionswherethemarketispreparedtopayforcertainty,thereismoneytobemadebothininsuranceagainstdisasterandinspeculationthatdisasterwillhappen.Atitsmostnativelevel,thismeansthatrichindividualshavestartedtohoardfood,keepingitbackfromthemarketinthe(correct)estimationthatitspricewillincrease.Butwhilethatfoodisgainingvaluebehindcloseddoors,foodispricedbeyondthemeansofthehungry.Thisiswhatisalsohappen-ingatafarlargerscaleintheChicagoBoardofTradeandothercommoditymarkets,wheretradersandfundsbuyupoptionsonfutureproduction,inthehopethatotherswillsharetheirenthusiasm,biddingupvaluableoptionsyetfurther.Speculationliesatthelegalendofpracticesthatarewidespreadamongcorporationsintimesofin-flation,wheretheyhavethemeans,opportunityandmotivetoraisepricesbeyondaninflationaryincrease,toraiseprofits.Suchbehaviourrequirescollusion,andevengovernmentshappytoletmarketsreignfinditdifficulttoallowthissortofabusetocontinue.Atthetimeofwriting,atleastthreecriminalinvestigationswereunderwayintocorporationsoperatingcartelsinthesupplyoffoodandmilk,inSpain,theUKandSouthAfrica.TheUShasnotlaunchedanysimilarinves-tigations^thisisreflectedinthefallingratesofcorporatefraudprosecutionoverthepasttwodecades.Itisnotterriblyhardtoseehowsomeofthismightchange.Thelawsarealreadyonthebooks^lawmakersmerelylackthewilltoimplementthem.Aggressiveandpoliticaldefenceofthefoodsystem,andtheprosecutionofprofiteers,isclearlynecessary.Butitisalsonecessarytoima-ginehowthemoresystematic,andlegal,specula-tiononfoodpricesmightbetamed.TheideaofaTobinTaxhasbeenmootedforfinancialmarkets,andasimilarsmalltaxonspeculativeinvestmentinfoodcouldalsobeimagined(Haqetal.,1996).Andcertainly,taxingathighratesthemillionsinbonusesbroughthomebythesetradersisalsoastepintherightdirection.AdeepercrisisThepricerisesare,inshort,manageableandmu-table.Thebiggerproblemisthatthemeanstotamethepriceriseshavebeensurrendered,andthepoliticalwilltotackleunderlyingcauseshasbeencaptured.Thecurrentcrisisforneo-liberal-ismliesinthefactthatmillionsofpeoplearegoinghungry,andthiscastsapalloverthedevelopmentprojectandprocess(McMichael,2000).Butthecrisisoflegitimacyderivesfromdeeperfailuresofthinkingaboutthefoodsystem.Themostun-thinkableelementinthecurrentcrisisisaroundthefulcrumofgender.Womenandgirlsaredisproportionatelyaffectedbythecurrentfoodcrisis,representing60percentofthoseaffectedbyhunger,yetresponsibleforproducingthemajorityoffoodconsumedindevelopingcountries(Hansen-Kuhn,2007).Yetnotonlyisgenderedpovertynotbeingaddressed,womenarebeingactivelysqueezedoutofthedebate.Inatellingreview,theETCGroupcomparedtheincidenceofkeywordsinthefoodsummitdeclarationsof1996,2002and2008.Womenandwomenfarm-ersappearoncein1996,fourtimesin2002andnotatallin2008.Comparethistotheappearanceofcorporatekeywords,whichhasincreasedoverthesameperiodsfromelevento16^20respec-tively(ETCGroup,2008).Eventhemoremodesttasksofthinkingaboutgrainmarketingboardsthatonceprovidedabuf-ferbetweenhighpricesandthepoorestmembersofapopulation,orthedomesticfoodsecuritypoli-ciesthatprovidedenoughformostcountriestoeat,ortheincomesupportandgovernmentspendingprogrammesthatofferedwaysforpeo-ple,particularlywomen,toaccesseducation^allofthesehavebeenquietlyeuthanized.Today,roughly70percentofdevelopingcountriesarenetfoodimporters.Thegrainstoreshavebeenauctionedofftopaythenationaldebt.Entitlementprogrammesforthepoorhavebeendecimated.Itshouldcomeasnosurprisethatsomanyhaveta-kentotheirstreets,demandingbothfoodandagovernmentthatwilllistentothem.Thedemandsfromthehungry,andfrompoorfoodproducers,deserveanaudiencenotmerelyonthesimplegroundsofdemocracy(Hallward,Patel:FoodandPoverty 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