“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more - PowerPoint Presentation

“There is nothing more difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to initiate a new order of things.” -Niccolo Machiavelli No Change Change

Class AgendaAnnouncementsDale Carnegie Some Advice on Prince Charts StrategiesChange in South AfricaAssignments

Module 5 AnnouncementModule 5 papers are due at 12:45 on 12/6You cannot hand this module in late!!!

Bringing a Centrist perspective to SUSyracuse University needs an organization, interest group or club of some sort that represents the middle ground and mainstream America. If you are interested in providing a voice to middle ground in politics and improving civil dialogue on this campus then email me at hsfrankl@syr.edu .

Dale Carnegie Fireside Chat Colleen

Dale Carnegie PrinciplesDon't criticize, condemn or complain.Give honest and sincere appreciation.Arouse in the other person an eager want.Become genuinely interested in other people.Remember that a man's name is to him the sweetest and most important sound in any language.Be a good listener. Encourage others to talk about themselves.Talk in the terms of the other man’s interest. Make the other person feel important and do it sincerely.Avoid arguments.Never tell someone they are wrongIf you're wrong, admit it quickly and emphatically.Begin in a friendly way.Start with questions the other person will answer yes to. Let the other person do the talking.Let the other person feel the idea is his/hers.Try honestly to see things from the other person's point of view.Sympathize with the other person.Appeal to noble motives.Dramatize your ideas. Throw down a challenge.Begin with praise and honest appreciation.Call attention to other people's mistakes indirectly.Talk about your own mistakes first.Ask questions instead of giving direct orders.Let the other person save face.Praise every improvement.Give them a fine reputation to live up toEncourage them by making their faults seem easy to correct.Make the other person happy about doing what you suggest.

Competition PointsWinnersLosers As of 11/18/19 GroupsPointsA20B19I16D14 G10 C9E9F7J7H6

Quick Review of Prince Charts Be clear on proposed policy and government unit implementing itAssume the policy forecasted will happen by end of 2019Learn as much as you can about the policy and the issue position, power and priority of the players

Strategy Exercises in Chapter 10Come up with one of the players in the Prince Chart who will take action to increase the likelihood that your policy will be implementedCome up with the action and discuss how it will change the Prince Chart

Prince Chart Player Issue Position Power Priority PrinceBoard of Trustees -5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 5 4 -80 Student Association +4 2 4 +32 Office of Financial Aid +2 1 4 +8 Alumni Association +1 2 2 +4 Probability of Implementation: 44 / 224 = 20% SU tuition increases should be held to the rate of inflation

Choosing A Player Select Player to execute a strategy Firm Issue Position High Priority High PowerPlayer Issue Position Power Priority Prince Board of Trustees -5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 5 4 -80 Student Association +4 2 4 +32 Office of Financial Aid +2 1 4 +8 Alumni Association +1 2 2 +4

Exercise 10.1 Player AnalysisPlayer Implementing the StrategyStrengthWeaknessOpportunityThreat

S.W.O.T. Analysis for Your Player 15 Strength Weakness   Capabilities? Competitive advantages? Resources, Assets, People? Experience, knowledge, data? Financial reserves, likely returns? Marketing - reach, awareness? Innovative aspects? Location and geographical? Processes, systems, IT, communications? Cultural, attitudinal, behavioral       Gaps in capabilities? Lack of competitive strength? Reputation, presence and reach? Financials? Own known vulnerabilities? Timescales, deadlines and pressures? Effects on core activities, distraction? Reliability of data, plan predictability? Morale, commitment, leadership? Accreditations, etc.?   Opportunity Threat   Market developments? Technology development and innovation? Regional influences? New markets, vertical, horizontal? Niche target markets? Geographical, export, import? Information and research? Partnerships, agencies, distribution? Volumes, production, economies?   Political effects? Legislative effects? Environmental effects? IT developments? Market demand? New technologies, services, ideas? Vital contracts and partners? Sustaining internal capabilities? Obstacles faced? Sustainable financial backing? Economy - home, abroad?  

Thinking About StrategiesA strategy for Exercises 10.1-10.4 is a specific action your chosen player will take to move the probability close to his or her issue position.Making arguments using research and emotion are a given and therefore cannot be your strategy

Thinking About StrategiesWhat actions can SA take to change: Issue PositionPowerPriorities PlayerIssue Position Power Priority PrinceBoard of Trustees -55 4 -100 Chancellor -4 5 4 -80 Student Association +4 2 4 +32 Office of Financial Aid +2 1 4 +8 Alumni Association +1 2 2 +4

Lowest issue position (best to start with)Highest priorityHighest power Change Issue Position of Players With: Player Issue PositionPower PriorityPrince Board of Trustees -5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 5 4 -80 Student Association +4 2 4 +32 Office of Financial Aid +2 1 4 +8 Alumni Association +1 2 2 +4

Threats must:Target a specific playerBe credibleNot push other players to oppose youNot raise priority of the players that oppose your position Player Issue PositionPower Priority Prince Board of Trustees-5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 5 4 -80 Student Association +4 2 4 +32 Office of Financial Aid +2 1 4 +8 Alumni Association +1 2 2 +4

Promises must be:CredibleNot illegalSpecificA.K.A horse trading, back scratching, quid pro quo, trade-offs Player Issue PositionPower Priority Prince Board of Trustees-5 5 4 -100 Chancellor -4 5 4 -80 Student Association +4 2 4 +32 Dean of Financial Aid +2 1 4 +8 Alumni Association +1 2 2 +4

A compromise is taking less than you wanted. SpecificAppealing to the player CredibleNot throwing the baby out with the bath water

Actions to take to change your player’s power:NumbersMoneyLong terms and very difficult Allies

How the greatest change agent of the 20th century used the Prince System             

Facts About South AfricaPopulation About 13% White, 75% Black, 9% Mixed, and 3% Indian in 1980’s16th Century Dutch Colonize and Become Afrikaners1910 - British Takeover After Beating Up Afrikaners1948 - National Party Establishes Apartheid As Law1950’s-1990’s - Organized and Violent Opposition1994 - Multi-Racial Regime Headed By Mandela Takes Power

Facts about MandelaJoins African National Congress (ANC) in 1942Jailed in 1963Released in 1990*Becomes President in 1994*Prince System born in early 1970’s

Figure 1: 1986 Prince Chart “ One person, one vote in South Africa”Probability of Implementation: 98/373= 26% Player Issue Position Power Priority Prince ANC +5 1 5 +25 Communist Party +5 1 5 +25 Pan African Congress +2 1 2 +4 Liberal Party +5 1 5 +25 National Party -4 5 5 -100 Conservative Parties -5 3 5 -75 West and Int ’ l Business +3 3 1 +9 Military -5 4 5 -100 Inkatha +2 1 5 +10

Figure 2: 1990 Prince Chart PlayerIssue Position Power Priority PrinceANC +5 3 5 +75 Communist Party +5 1 5 +25 Pan African Congress +2 1 2 +4 Liberal Party +5 1 5 +25 National Party +2 5 5 +50 Conservative Parties -5 3 5 -75 West and Int ’ l Business +3 3 1 +9 Military +1 4 5 +20 Inkatha +2 3 5 +30 “ One person, one vote in South Africa ” Probability of Implementation : 238/313= 76%

Timing is everything, as in the case of all change Facts About South Africa Decline of South African EconomyBuilding of International PressureFall of Soviet UnionGrowing fear of civil war by all sides

Major challenges were overcome by threats, promises, horse trading, and compromise Cohesion of “ friends ” – ANC, PAC, Lib. Party, Communist Party, Inkatha, International Business and Most CountriesBuilding Trust with “enemies” – National Party, Military, Conservative PartiesFacts About South Africa

Lessons About Change Change is very slow and very hardMacro social, economic, and political trends have to be properly alignedFear is the most powerful source of change, greed is the second most powerfulCapacity for compromise comes from culture, circumstance, and leadership

For Next ClassReview what you wrote for 9.2-9.5Complete the exercises in Chapter 10Start thinking about 11.1Community service forms due 11/22 by 12:45 PM! Extra Credit/Excel certification due 11/22 by 8:00 PM!