Juneau Area Chinook Enhancement Most recent 5 years forecasting error 302 2017 DIPAC KING FORECAST 2016 RETURNS CONTRIBUTION amp 2017 FORECAST KING 2016 Return Summary by Area amp Age ID: 606149
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Douglas Island Pink & ChumJuneau Area Chinook Enhancement Slide2Slide3Slide4Slide5Slide6Slide7
Most recent 5 yearsforecasting error = 30.2%Slide8
2017 DIPAC KING FORECAST
2016 RETURNS, CONTRIBUTION, & 2017 FORECAST
KING: 2016 Return Summary by Area & Age
Age-3
Age-4
Age-5
Age-6
Age-7
Total Return
Gastineau Channel (MSH & Thane)
129
293
452
241
-
1,115
Fish Creek
-
64
78
36
-
177
Auke Bay
-
42
432
27
-
500
Lena Cove
183
131
-
-
-
314Slide9
2017 DIPAC KING FORECAST
2016 RETURNS, CONTRIBUTION, & 2017 FORECAST
KING: 2016 Return Summary by Area & Age
Age-3
Age-4
Age-5
Age-6
Age-7
Total Return
Gastineau Channel (MSH & Thane)
129
293
452
241
-
1,115
Fish Creek
-
64
78
36
-
177
Auke Bay
-
42
432
27
-
500
Lena Cove
183
131
-
-
-
314
KING: 2017 Forecast Age Composition Summary
*SMOLT RELEASED
Age-3
Age-4
Age-5
Age-6
Age-7
Total Return Forecast
Gastineau Channel (MSH & Thane)
1,240,236
166
745
763
171
48
1,893
Fish Creek
1,317,385
70
391
158
65
32
716
Auke Bay
424,846
41
241
285
158
13
739
Lena Cove
449,038
5
154
311
-
-
470
Forecast of Total Common Property Contribution
2,494
Forecast of Total Rack Return
1,324
* smolt released - the total smolt released for all brood years used in forecast Slide10Slide11Slide12Slide13
The 2017 DIPAC Chinook forecast (adjusted for recent error) points to a marginal availability of females for broodstock at MSH. If the marine survival is even lower or the interception rate higher than anticipated, our green egg goal will not be attainable with returns to the MSH rack. Slide14
The 2017 DIPAC Chinook forecast (adjusted for recent error) points to a marginal availability of females for broodstock at MSH. If the marine survival is even lower or the interception rate higher than anticipated, our green egg goal will not be attainable with returns to the MSH rack.
Returns to other hatcheries producing the Andrew Creek stock are experiencing the same decline in marine survival and may not be able to supplement MSH production in the near future.Slide15
The 2017 DIPAC Chinook forecast (adjusted for recent error) points to a marginal availability of females for broodstock at MSH. If the marine survival is even lower or the interception rate higher than anticipated, our green egg goal will not be attainable with returns to the MSH rack.
Returns to other hatcheries producing the Andrew Creek stock are experiencing the same decline in marine survival and may not be able to supplement MSH production in the near future.
New Fish Transport Permits (FTPs) has been approved that will allow DIPAC to collect brood and/or green eggs from returns to Fish Creek. Assistance in collecting eggs at this site has been pledged by the Territorial Sportsmen and ADF&G Sport Fish Division.Slide16
What is being done to improve DIPAC Chinook returns and better ensure broodstock in the future?Completion of new rearing annex building in 2012 increased MSH capacity for kings (& cohos) by 40%. Additional production resulted in:
Creation of new rearing/release site @ Lena Cove
Reinstitution of rearing/release of smolt @ Thane saltwater siteSlide17
What is being done to improve DIPAC Chinook returns and better ensure broodstock in the future?Completion of new rearing annex building in 2012 increased MSH capacity for kings (& cohos) by 40%. Additional production resulted in:
Creation of new rearing/release site @ Lena Cove
Reinstitution of rearing/release of smolt @ Thane saltwater site
Larger size @ release goals (35 g+) initiated for BY13 production in an effort to augment marine survival.Slide18
What is being done to improve DIPAC Chinook returns and better ensure broodstock in the future?Completion of new rearing annex building in 2012 increased MSH capacity for kings (& cohos) by 40%. Additional production resulted in:
Creation of new rearing/release site @ Lena Cove
Reinstitution of rearing/release of smolt @ Thane saltwater site
Larger size @ release goals (35 g+) initiated for BY13 production in an effort to augment marine survival.
On-going work with ADF&G Sport Fish Division:
Management of terminal area to protect broodstock in years of low abundance.
Temporarily increase MSH smolt release by reallocating a portion of Fish Creek production.Slide19
QUESTIONS?