April 2016 The State Tool for Electricity Emissions Reduction STEER is an openaccess integrated resource planning IRP tool It solves for least cost Clean Power Plan CPP implementation given ID: 675429
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Slide1
STEER Model Briefing
Virginia GEC MeetingApril 2016Slide2
The
State
Tool for Electricity Emissions Reduction (STEER) is an open-access integrated resource
planning (IRP) toolIt solves for least-cost Clean Power Plan (CPP) implementation given policy options, load and price forecastsAll data, inputs, and formulae are visible to and changeable by the userSTEER is Excel based and can be downloaded for free at info.AEE.net/steer
What is steer?Slide3
It is a tool for analysis, not calculating the answer
Utilities are often the only party able to model scenarios, but they cannot share proprietary models
STEER provides
all stakeholders with a lighter weight but analogous and transparent IRP tool for CPP planningStakeholders can use STEER to quickly analyze options and identify key issues for discussionUtilities will and should use their models for detailed planningWhat is the purpose of steer?Slide4
How Does steer work?
Input Data
Generator
Net Capacity, fuel, heat rate and VOMNet Load24 representative daysWeekday/weekendRepresent the GridCreate merit order of generators from dispatch costsUse merit order to match net load with generation to create hourly LMPs curvesCalculate annual generation and emissions from LMP dataIncorporate
Costs for Mitigation
STEER calculates the mitigation cost of each mitigation measure
Meet the Carbon Rules
Optimization accounts for the
interactive effects
of the
measures rather
than a sequential selection of
projectsSTEER minimizes the cost to mitigate from all options to create a unique mitigation strategySlide5
Compliance with the Clean Power Plan can
save ratepayers money vs. business-as-usual, depending on options selected
Some
compliance options are cost-effective regardless of the Clean Power PlanNatural gas price is a key variable; long-term price uncertainty and volatility suggests that efficiency and renewables have a key hedging roleSome themes are emerging from steer modelingSlide6
SCC’s 2008 EE Potential Study found:
Over 4,200 GWh of achievable residential EE savings
Almost 4,600
GWh of achievable commercial EE savingsOver 1,750 GWh of achievable industrial EE savingsCost Residential - 4.4 cents per KWh levelized costCommercial – 3.3 cents per KWh levelized costIndustrial – 3.1 cents per KWh levelized cost Scenario A – Using SCC’s 2008 EE potential study Slide7
Updated to reflect PJM load growth projections
Compliance can save ratepayers
moneyUsing SCC study, Efficiency saves ratepayers & meets 91% complianceSlide8
SCC’s 2015 EE Potential Study found:
1,480 GWh annually of achievable residential EE savings at 50% incentives (over 2,400
GWh
@ 75%)623 GWh annually of achievable commercial EE savings (almost 1,300 GWh @ 75%)Cost Residential – 3.6 cents per KWh levelized cost (3.9 @ 75%)Commercial – 3.6 cents per KWh levelized cost (3.9 @ 75%)Total avoided cost benefits (present value)$1,278 million under 50% incentives$2,251 million under 75% incentives. Scenario B – Using dominion’s 2015 EE potential Study Slide9
PJM load growth
projectionsLess than half a penny impact on rates
Using Dominion estimates, Efficiency meets nearly half of complianceSlide10
Efficiency = Savings
Failure to use EE can lead to increased costs in:Regulatory ComplianceGrid Modernization
Must have market mechanism to drive investment
Key takeaways for virginiaSlide11Slide12
AppendixSlide13
M
anaged
by 5 Lakes
Energy with core model development by a University of Michigan team (led by Professor Jeremiah Johnson) Built for Advanced Energy Economy Institute for use to engage in statesInitially developed for MichiganData compilation and scenario analysis by 5 Lakes Energy, variously funded, for Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, Illinois, Virginia, North Carolina, and Georgia
Background Slide14
D
oes not incorporate power flow and transmission constraintsCalculates least
-cost plan for
user-selected single year (usually 2030); no aggregation of annual results over timeDesigned for individual states, not regions (does allow for imports/exports)Steer incorporates some important Simplifications
Designed for options analysis options and cross-checking proposals
Utilities will and should still run their models to further analyze plan
Some mitigation options
may require policy changes to
realize full
benefits (e.g., DR)
Simplifications
ImplicationsSlide15
It is a cost optimization model - not a potentials calculator
Freely accessibly to all stakeholders
Excel file is transparent and runs in a matter of seconds
Contains public default data; allows easy user modificationHigh resolution inputs/results match utility & regulator normsData for existing resources is at the generator-levelFull compliance range: generation to demand managementRE resources are site-specific with hourly resolution
EE is measure-by-measure from potential
s
tudies
Reflects interactive effects of mitigation
options
Results include emissions
and
costs (e.g
. rate impact by class)Key Features of steer’s design