Paul AmRhein Strategy Bridge International May 3 2012 Not Nirvana But Close What if you could Maximize ROI Align project portfolio with organizational objectives Increase Decision Visibility ID: 728442
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Slide1
Systems Engineering based Strategy Development
Paul AmRhein
Strategy Bridge International
May 3, 2012Slide2
Not Nirvana, But Close
What if you could …..
Maximize ROI
Align project portfolio with organizational objectives
Increase Decision Visibility
Document and examine implicit assumptions
Track, audit and improve decision-making over time.
Create Decision Traceability
Final decision authorities can see how decisions were achieved
Adjust strategy to changing market conditions with dynamic sensitivity analysis
Save
TimeSlide3
Agenda
Strategic Planning 101
Why Use Systems Engineering precepts?
The ProcessSlide4
Strategic Planning 101
What is the Core Purpose of the organization?
Where do we see ourselves in 3-5 years?
What are the strategic challenges we must address?
How will we address shifts in technology, markets, products, the competition, and the economy?
How do we identify possible blind spots?
How will we plan for long-term sustainability?Slide5
Strategic Planning Methods
There are a number of approaches to strategic planning
MBA approach – focus on cost and/or savings
Zappos
approach – love your customers, pay your employees to leave
BOGGSAT – optimized for inefficiencySlide6
Ideal Decision ModelSlide7
Agenda
Strategic Planning 101
Why Use Systems Engineering precepts?
The ProcessSlide8
Why Systems Engineering?
The practices that systems engineers utilize in project definition and execution -- work
NDIA SE Effectiveness survey showed that
planning and executing trade studies well had a very high correlation to overall program success
By applying a basic Analytical Hierarchy Process to the plan options, a justifiable, traceable decision can be identified
The process eliminates personalities, pet projects and ambiguitySlide9
Key Strategic Planning Elements
Understand the “problem” you are trying to solve
Take a systems view of the enterprise
Consider
work
systems, support processes, and inter-relationships within the organization
Assign someone to have the voice of the customer
Worry about the inputs as much as the outputs
Individuals must take a systems view as well
M
any
of us suspend our systems thinking skills when it comes to our own initiatives Slide10
What is a Decision?
Decision
i
s
a response to a situation in which:
there
is more than one possible course of
action
the
decision-maker can form expectations about the outcomes following each possible course of
action
each
outcome has an associated consequence that can be
evaluated
Hammond, K. R. (2000).
Judgments Under Stress
Slide11
What Doesn’t Change
Still using intuition
The proper decision frame opens up the
spectrum,
allowing truly creative possibilities to emerge.
Need the representative team to participate
The price
of additional perspectives and enhanced “buy-in” is time and effort
Collaborative decision meetings must be carefully planned and
facilitatedSlide12
Agenda
Strategic Planning 101
Why Use Systems Engineering precepts?
The ProcessSlide13
The Process
Strategic Planning follows a trade study process
Framing
the decision to be
made
Generating alternatives
Modelling
-evaluating the trade
study
Choosing
an
alternative
Conducting
sensitivity
analysis
Implementing
the selected
alternative Slide14
Decision Process FlowSlide15
Why The Proper Frame is Critical
Typical
decision-
making tends
to focus on point solutions (the way we’ve always done things)
vice taking
the time to
examine
the underlying goal(s) of the decision.
Better to ask
the
question “Why
?”
Allows a
decision-maker
to see
alternatives and options that are not readily apparent if the chosen frame is constrained to answering the question “what’s wrong?
”Slide16
Proper FramingSlide17
Evaluation Criteria
The techniques rely
on
carefully selected decision criteria by which the alternatives are judged.
Should
be few in number, reasonably independent of one another, and
like requirements, should be
clearly and unambiguously
defined.
If
the decision criteria do not have a common
definition, the
team results should be
questioned,
since
team
members may have evaluated the alternatives
differently.
Too
many criteria
(more
than nine) often
prevent
a conclusion due to insufficient discrimination among competing
alternatives.Slide18
Sensitivity Analysis
Once the initial analysis is completed, it’s important to confirm that small changes to criteria do not significantly impact the results.
In addition to confirming that “what ifs” don’t impact results, sensitivity analysis can be used to demonstrate the thoroughness of the decision analysis to stakeholders.Slide19
Implement and Repeat
Once a decision has been made, review checkpoints to confirm that progress is tracking as expected.
Depending upon how proactive your organization is, strategy development can be done at any time.Slide20
Summary
System Engineering is not just for complex project execution.
Decision Making techniques provide a
reliable
and
repeatable process to
make justifiable, traceable resource allocation decisions
.
Though structure is added, vision and collaboration
remain paramount.Slide21
Need More Info?
Paul AmRhein
pamrhein@strategybridge.com
571-265-2230 (c)
540-723-4242 (o)