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Wind Power Integration and Transmission: Wind Power Integration and Transmission:

Wind Power Integration and Transmission: - PowerPoint Presentation

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Wind Power Integration and Transmission: - PPT Presentation

Addressing Some Common Misconceptions Governors Wind Energy Coalition Transmission Briefing November 3 2011 Washington DC Ed DeMeo Renewable Energy Consulting Services Inc Technical Advisor ID: 340514

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Slide1

Wind Power Integration and Transmission:Addressing Some Common Misconceptions

Governors Wind Energy Coalition Transmission Briefing

November 3, 2011 Washington, DC

Ed DeMeo

Renewable Energy Consulting Services, Inc.

Technical Advisor:

Governors Wind Energy Coalition(EPRI Renewable Energy Programs, 1976-1998)

eademeo@comcast.net

650 327 3090Slide2

Key Questions

What benefits are expected from wind power?

Will these benefits actually be realized?

Address common misconceptions in the context of these questionsSlide3

Expected Benefits

Affordable, plentiful, domestic energy

Clean energy; reduced fossil-fuel combustion and emissions

Substantial economic development opportunities nationwideReduced electric-sector water consumptionhttp://www.20percentwind.org Slide4

Affordable?

Common criticism: wind needs subsidies

But conventional energy has received substantial subsidies for years – nearly 100 for oil and gas

There is no Free Market in energy!

O&G, 91 yrs, $4.9 B/yr Wind, 15 yrs, $0.4 B/yrSlide5

Affordable?

Common criticism: wind’s variability and uncertainty require one-for-one backup and greatly increase power-system operating costs

Balance between demand and generation needs to be continually maintained

Wind’s variability and uncertainty complicates the balancing process over minutes, hours, days

But utilities are used to dealing with variability in demand

Wind’s challenge is one of degree, not kindSlide6

One-for-One Backup?

Does a megawatt of wind require a megawatt of conventional backup?Slide7

One-for-One Backup?

Does a megawatt of wind require a megawatt of conventional backup?

No power plant has dedicated backup

All plants work together to serve system demand for electric energyGeneration mix includes reserves to accommodate a wide range of potential contingencies (10-15%)Substantial wind increases the need for reserves, increasing operating costs

Incremental operating costs: integration costsSlide8

One-for-One Backup?

Does a megawatt of wind require a megawatt of conventional backup?

No power plant has dedicated backup

All plants work together to serve system demand for electric energyGeneration mix includes reserves to accommodate a wide range of potential contingencies (10-15%)Substantial wind increases the need for reserves, increasing operating costs

Incremental operating costs: integration costs

With over 40,000 MW of wind in the US, not 1 MW of backup generation has been added! Slide9

2003 through 2010: Many Wind Integration Studies Across the Nation

Examined larger and larger

regions

Wind energy contributions up to ~ 30%Key Result: Wind integration costs under ~10% of wholesale value (i.e., under ~ ½¢/kWh)Why? Aggregating wind over larger regions mitigates wind variability

Variability tends to average outWhy? Sharing reliability responsibilities over larger regions reduces operating costsSlide10

Large Balancing Areas Reduce Reserve Requirements

Approximate regulating requirements for a BA

as a function of peak demand.

Source:MN DOC

Peak load: 100 1,000 10,000 100,000

Regulation: 9 30 90 300Slide11

Operating strategies: e.g., reserves sharing; and generator dispatch decisions at 5-min intervals instead of hourly, enabling better use of forecasts

Regional connectivity: efficient transmission use and judicious transmission expansion

Demand response: automatic load shifting at critical times

Generating units designed for rapid changes in output levelAffordable system-level storage (most expensive source of flexibility – may not be needed)

Wind Integration Requires Power-System Flexibility

Terry Boston, CEO of PJM Interconnection on Demand Response:

“Traditionally, generation chases loads. Now we need to have load chase generation.” October 26, 2011Slide12

Benefits of Forecasting

Better decisions for day-ahead system planning

Better plant-dispatch decisions hour-to-hour and within the hourAdvance warning of major weather events

Forecasting accuracy good and improvingValue of current forecasts: ~1¢/kWh (NY study)Accuracy improves with aggregation

Wind Forecasting Reduces System-Operation CostsSlide13

Plentiful?

Common criticism: wind requires too much landSlide14

20% Wind: Area Comparisons

Rhode Island

1,045 mi

2

West Virginia

24,087 mi

2

Anchorage, AK

1,961 mi

2

305 GW of Wind Total Footprint*: 23,830 mi

2

Area Occupied by Turbines, Equipment, Roads**: 950 mi

2

*12.8 MW/mi

2

; **4% occupancy

Wind equipment occupies an area less than Rhode Island and less than half of Anchorage, AK Slide15

Plentiful?

Common criticism: wind requires too much land

For 20% US electricity from wind, about 1,000 mi

2

dedicated to wind equipment

Comparable to area occupied by US Interstate Highway System (about 1% of all roads)

For perspective, May 2011 Arizona wildfire burned 469,000 acres (~730 mi2)Wind area requirement criticized in June 2011 NY Times Op-Ed by Robert BryceGWC Chair and Co-chair rebutted; NYT ignoredSlide16

But Wind Needs Transmission

Allows access to the best wind resources

Allows pooling of wind plant outputs over wide regions, smoothing variability and reducing integration costs

Allows sharing of reliability responsibilities over wider regions, reducing costs

Provides broad reliability and economic benefits to all in the regionSlide17

But Wind Needs Transmission

Common criticism: transmission is too expensive

Eastern concern: transmission from Midwest will increase coal generation transport to the East

Allows access to the best wind resources

Allows pooling of wind plant outputs over wide regions, smoothing variability and reducing integration costs

Allows sharing of reliability responsibilities over wider regions, reducing costs

Provides broad reliability and economic benefits to all in the regionSlide18

LARGE TRANSMISSION INVESTMENTS HAVE VERY SMALL RETAIL BILL IMPACTS

Average Monthly Retail Bill $ / 1,000 kWhs

Total $65.75

Total $66.62

Transmission 6%

Generation 74%

Distribution 20%

Impact from $12.6 billion increase (20%) in Transmission Infrastructure

Source:

FERC

~ 2001Slide19

Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study

Substantial transmission added in all four scenarios, but coal generation nearly same in the three 20% scenarios

Scenarios

1) Best wind, Midwest primarily, no off-shore

(20% wind)

2) Some off-shore, less Midwest (20% wind)

3) Aggressive off-shore (20% wind)4) Aggressive on- and off-shore (30% wind)Slide20

Does Wind Power Really Reduce Emissions?

Ramping of fossil plants introduces inefficiencies

Providing reserves from fossil plants also introduces inefficiencies

Some have claimed that the inefficiencies would cancel out any expected wind emissions benefitsBentek, LLC originally claimed this but has revised their work and retracted the claimBut naysayers continue to perpetuate this myth

The press seems to love the controversy and gives the naysayers airtimeSlide21

Stylized Illustration: 100 MW Fossil Plant Providing +/-10 MW Reserves

Plant efficiency reduced slightly when power deviates 10 MW from rated levelSlide22

Careful studies to date indicate actual emissions reductions will be 90-to-95% of ideal reductions

More thorough evaluations are underway

Does Wind Power Really Reduce Emissions?

“The study implies that small, short-term emission increases associated with ramping result in significant increases in the total emissions. This is simply wrong. Since 2007, we have added hundreds of megawatts of wind generation, and our overall emissions have declined. In 2009, wind produced 10 percent of the energy delivered to our customers. Without wind, that electricity would have been generated by gas or coal, creating greater total emissions.”

 

Frank Prager, VP Environmental Policy, Xcel Energy

Denver Post, May 28, 2010Slide23

Does Wind Power Really Reduce Emissions?

20% Wind Evaluation estimates flat-lined CO

2

emissions from the electric sector

Substantial wedge of needed reduction

Climate-change deniers doubt the earth is warming; Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature study – carried out by skeptics – has crushed this mythSlide24

Significant Water Use Savings Cumulatively, the 20% Wind Scenario would avoid the consumption of 4 trillion gallons of water

through 2030.

The 20% Wind Scenario cuts electric sector water consumption by 17% in 2030

.

Extraction of shale gas and tar-sands oil requires large amounts of waterSlide25

Xcel Energy Today: Minnesota and Colorado

Wind now

exceeds 10

% of retail energy generationRevising previously approved system expansion plans – with PUC approvalReplacing planned coal plants with wind and gas plants; emissions and costs are key factors driving this strategyLearning how to deal with wind’s natural characteristics

Actual utility experience is the strongest response to those who perpetuate the myths!Slide26

Summary

Wind energy is affordable now

Integration costs are minor; increased power-system flexibility and wind forecasting will reduce them

Wind tax incentives help to compensate for existing subsidies for conventional energyTransmission is affordable and provides broad benefitsWind reduces emissions of pollutants and greenhouse gases and saves water

Utilities are relying on wind for substantial and growing portions of their generation portfolioSlide27

www.uwig.org

Wind Integration State of the Art:

IEEE Power & Energy Magazines

November-December 2005, 2007, 2009, 2011Slide28

References

U.S. Department of Energy. 2008.

20% Wind Energy by 2030. DOE/GO-102008-2567. Washington, DC. Available at http://www.20percentwind.org

Pfund and Healey. 2011. What Would Jefferson Do? The Historical Role of Federal Subsidies in Shaping America’s Energy Future. DBL Investors. Available at http://www.dblinvestors.com/documents/What-Would-Jefferson-Do-_Final_September2011.pdfHand et al. 2008. Power System Modeling of 20% Wind-Generated Electricity by 2030.

National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Conference Paper NREL/CP-500-42794. Golden, CO. Available at http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy08osti/42794.pdf

National Renewable Energy Laboratory. 2010. Eastern Wind Integration and Transmission Study. NREL/SR-550-47078. Golden, Colorado. Available at http://www.nrel.gov/wind/systemsintegration/ewits.html

Berkeley Earth Temperature Study. Available at http://berkeleyearth.org/