CUBAN FOREIGN ELATIONS UNDER RAÚL Michael Erisman CONTINUITY AND CHANGE CONTINUITIES entails broad themes or concerns persisting over time CONTINUITY AND CHANGE ID: 253348
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Slide1
A MACROPERSPECTIVE
CUBAN FOREIGN ELATIONS
UNDER
RAÚL
Michael ErismanSlide2
CONTINUITY AND CHANGE
CONTINUITIES
—entails broad themes or concerns persisting over time.
Slide3
CONTINUITY AND CHANGE
CHANGE
—entails variables such as time, place, and strategies/tactics involved in promoting/protecting the continuities Slide4
CONTINUTIES
(
promoting and protecting
)Economic SecurityInternational Stature (soft power)Effective SovereigntySlide5
GENERAL OBSERVATIONS
Whatever
potential might have existed for dramatic policy transformations as Fidel
moved into the background has not, for the most part, materialized. Raúl’s style is more low-key and pragmatic than that of his charismatic brother, but the substance of Cuba’s foreign affairs agenda has not changed radically.Slide6
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(an overview of growth
plus diversification)
Macroeconomic Performance (measured by GDP growth rates) Slide7Slide8
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(growth plus diversification)
Macroeconomic Performance
(GDP growth rates) International Economic Relations
Regional
d
iversification of trade
Slide9Slide10Slide11Slide12
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(growth plus diversification)
Macroeconomic Performance
(GDP growth rates) International Economic Relations
Regional diversification of trade
Diversification of export product menu
Slide13
Sugar = 76% Nickel = 7% Tourism = 4%Slide14Slide15
Services = 49% Tourism =19% Nickel = 12% (Sugar = 2%)Slide16
Services = 37% Other
Merchan
= 19% Tourism = 15% Nickel = 9%Slide17
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(growth plus diversification)
Macroeconomic Performance
(GDP growth rates) International Economic Relations
− Regional diversification of trade
Diversification of export menu
Diversification of trading partners
Slide18
Prior to the 1990s, approximately 85% of Cuba’s foreign trade was with the USSR and Soviet-dominated Eastern European countries. There was virtually no trade with Latin American countries (except Mexico) and relatively small amounts with Western European nations.
Cuba’s Primary Trading Partners, 2006 and 2012
2006 2012
Country Thousands Country Thousands
of Pesos Of Pesos
TOTAL (ranked) Venezuela 2,641,210 Venezuela 8,562,849
China 1,815,101 China 1,695,900
Spain 1,016,533 Spain 1,156,086
Canada 896,985 Canada 938,295
Netherlands 855,977 Netherlands 791,811
Percent of
TOTAL (
ranked
) Venezuela 21.26 Venezuela 44.19
China 14.61 China 8.75
Spain 8.18 Spain 5.97
Canada 7.22 Canada 4.84
Netherlands 6.89 Netherlands 4.09 Slide19
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(growth plus diversification)
Macroeconomic Performance
(GDP growth rates) International Economic Relations
−
Regional diversification of trade
Diversification of export menu
Diversification of trading partners
Special Venezuelan RelationshipSlide20Slide21Slide22Slide23
ECONOMIC SECURITY
(growth plus diversification)
Macroeconomic Performance
(GDP growth rates) International Economic Relations
−
Regional diversification of trade
Diversification of export menu
Diversification of trading partners
Special Venezuelan Relationship
Oil A potential “silver bullet”Slide24Slide25
RECENT RAULISTA INITIATIVES
Expanding Brazilian relations
New foreign investment lawSlide26
INTERNATIONAL STATURE
Policy Manifestations
Developmental aid programs (especially education and health care)Slide27
Cuban Overseas Medical PersonnelSlide28
INTERNATIONAL STATURE
Policy Manifestations
Developmental aid programs (
esp education and health care)
Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA)Slide29Slide30
INTERNATIONAL STATURE
Policy Manifestations
Developmental aid programs (
esp education and health care)
Bolivarian Alternative for the Americas (ALBA) leadership
CELAC
(Latin
American
and Caribbean
Economic Community)
leadershipSlide31
EFFECTIVE SOVEREIGNTY
Litmus test—ability to frustrate Washington’s hostility
PASSED
Enhanced economic security + Solid international stature = strengthening of effective sovereignty
Bottom line -- Cuba’s effective sovereignty does not currently appear to be in any serious jeopardySlide32
CONCLUSIONSlide33
THANK YOU VERY MUCH