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Is the African Economic Miracle at the Verge of Economic Co Is the African Economic Miracle at the Verge of Economic Co

Is the African Economic Miracle at the Verge of Economic Co - PowerPoint Presentation

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Is the African Economic Miracle at the Verge of Economic Co - PPT Presentation

Prof Brothers W Malema Department of Economics UB Introduction African Economic Miracle Phenomenal Growth Conteth C 2008 Malema B w 2012 Island of Peace Democracy and Elections ID: 435181

sector economic 2009 amp economic sector amp 2009 diversification agriculture challenges 2012 cont growth 2003 gfc transition 2008 2013

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Slide1

Is the African Economic Miracle at the Verge of Economic Collapse? The case of Botswana’s an Untapped Economic Potential

Prof. Brothers W. Malema

Department of Economics - UBSlide2

Introduction

African Economic Miracle

Phenomenal

Growth(

Conteth

C.

2008, Malema B. w. 2012,

Island of Peace

Democracy and

Elections(

Febaek

M. 2010,

Good K.

1999

& Taylor I. 2003)

Impetus to Growth

Primarily – MineralsSlide3

Introduction Cont.

Secondarily

Economic Management

Democracy

Rule of LawSlide4

TransitionSlide5

TransitionSlide6

Diversification OR What?Slide7

Botswana’s Agricultural Sector

Share to GDP(WB, 2013)

43 % in 1960

39.29 % in 1966

<9 % since 1983

< 3 % since 2001

> 3 % in 2009 and 2010Slide8

Second Diversification OR What?

Share of mining was 2% at independence

Increased to about 46.7% in 2003

Has been decreasing

Has been below 20% since 2009

Was 13.5 % in 2012

Is this diversification?Slide9

Economic Challenges

Poverty

(Hope

K. R & Edge W. A.

1996,

Conteth

C.

2008 and BIDPA

& WB, 2013)

Below $1;23.4 (2003) 6.4 (2009/10)

19.3 of Population poor

16% of

Popu

below food comp of PDL

Unemployment

17.8% in 2009/10

Income DistributionGNI 0.6(Bertelsmann Stiftung, BTI 2012)Slide10

Responding to the Challenges

Social Protection (BIDPA & WB, 2013)

Social Net

Destitue

Orphan

Labour Programmes

Ipelegeng

InternshipSlide11

Growth without Development

Challenges above taints Botswana’s record

Attributed to the economic

structure (

Conteth

C.

2008 and Malema B. W. 2012)

Causes

Lack of Diversification

Lewis two Sector modelSlide12

LEWIS TWO SECTOR MODEL

Gives to some degree a historical account

Rural Subsistence Agriculture

Emerging Urban Industrial Sector

Developed in parallel fashion

Rural provided inputs

Urban provided market

Agriculture became productive

Todaro

& Smith (2009)Slide13

LEWIS TWO SECTOR MODEL Cont.

The transition omitted in Botswana

Agriculture in particular arable was almost neglected

Drought frustrated attempts to improve sector

Measures put in place failed to address the economic challenges (ISPAAD) Slide14

Global Financial Crisis (GFC)Slide15

Lessons From the GFC

Economy highly Volatile

Diversification a must

Agriculture holds the keys

Market is a given

Technological knowhow not much of a challenge

An omitted step that requires visitationSlide16

Lessons From the GFC Cont.

Lack of substantial FDI Inflows

Batswana investing more outside than expatriates inside

Expansion of BDC activities a must

Requires total abhorrence for corruption

Palapye

Glass Project

Botswana Meat Commission

Masitara

ReportSlide17

Conclusion

We still have resources (and therefore potential)

Should use them productively to diversify

Mode of ownership should be less of a concern

Their depletion will be our end.

Slide18

NOTE

ONLY TENDENCIES

NO UNIVERSAL TRUTHS

NO SCIENTIFIC LAWS

I THANK YOU