Impacts 2050 NCHRP Report 750 Volume 6 Strategic Issues Facing Transportation The Effects of Sociodemographics on Future Travel Demand End of the Car Culture The total number of miles driven in the US peaked in 2006 at 2647 trillion ID: 588286
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Slide1
National Cooperative Highway Research Program
Impacts 2050
NCHRP Report 750 Volume 6:
Strategic Issues Facing Transportation—
The Effects of Socio-demographics
on Future Travel DemandSlide2
End of the Car Culture?
The total number of miles driven in the US peaked in 2006 at 2.647 trillion.
In 2011, the total number of miles driven was 5% lower. Miles driven per person and per vehicle peaked in 2004, and by 2011 had dropped by nearly 9% and 5%, respectively.
(UMTRI-2013-20 July 2013)
2Slide3
Long-Range Planning
As models are run further into future,
precision becomes challenging
Time
Uncertainty in exogenous inputs
Uncertainty in
model relationships
Variety of relationships that could be important
3Slide4
Socio-Demographic Trends
Driving Uncertainty
4Slide5
Next 100 Million
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties
US population growing at higher rate than rest of world’s developed nations
Growth rate is slowing, but to what degree
Increase in total vehicle miles traveled (VMT)5
Projections of the Total Population for the U.S.: 2010-2050 (millions)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “The Next Four Decades, The Older Population in the U.S. 2010-2050.” Population Estimates and projections, P25-1138,
May 2010, pg.1. A http///www.census.gov/prod/2010publs/p2501138.pdfSlide6
Graying of America
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties
Significant increase in population age 65+ due to Baby Boomers
How will Baby Boomers travel patterns change
Decrease in VMT per capitaDecrease in work tripsDecrease in transit useDecrease in vehicle ownership6
Percent of U.S. Population by Age Group, 1990-2010
Source: Brownell, Peter, Thomas Light, Paul Sorensen, Constantine Samaras,
Nidhi
Kalra
, and Jan
Osburg
. 2013. The Future of Mobility: Scenarios for the United States in 2030, Appendixes C–G. RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA. http://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR246Slide7
Browning of America
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties
White, non-Hispanic share of
US population declining
Majority of America’s children
are of color
Increase in VMT per capita
Increase carpooling, walking,
public transit use
Increase in vehicle ageTravel behavior as people acculturate or are new mainstream
Future foreign-born percentPopulation by Race and Ethnicity(% of Total)7
Note: All races are non-Hispanic; American Indian/Alaska Native not shown.
Source: Passel, J., and D’V. Cohn. February 2008. U.S. Population Projections: 2005–2050. Pew Research Center, Washington, DC. http://pewhispanic.org/files/reports/85/pdf; Census Bureau 2011 population estimates.
Projected Slide8
Changing American Workforce
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties
Workforce is growing older and
more diverse
Labor-force participation rate declining Decrease in VMT per capitaIncrease in work-related VMTLong-term effects of recession, technology on productivity, Hispanics on labor participation rate
Civilian Labor Force by Age
(Millions)
Source: BLS, Monthly Labor Review, December 2013;
Toossi
, M. December 2013. “Labor Force Projections to 2022:
The Labor Force Participation Rate Continues to Fall.” Monthly Labor Review. U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2013/article/pdf/labor-force-projections-
to-2022-the-labor-force-participation-rate-continues-to-fall.pdf
8Slide9
Blurring City and Suburb
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties
Both cities and suburbs home to employers and residences
Inner-ring suburbs having
density changes similar to center cityDecrease in VMT per capitaIncrease in non-motorized tripsIncrease in transit tripsLong-term demand forsuburban urbanity
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Map by Zara Matheson, Martin Prosperity Institute
Data Source: http://www.brookings.edu/papers/2007/1128_walkableurbanisim_leinberger.aspxSlide10
Slow Growth in Households
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties
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Marriage rates are declining, depressing household formation and households with children
Increasing numbers of Americans are living in someone else’s home Influence of economic recession and Millennial lifestageDecrease in VMT per capitaDecrease in auto ownership
Increase in car pooling
Increase in transit useSlide11
Generation C
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties
Demand for connected devices
Gen C = hyperlinked
Super-Cs spent entire lives with digital devices Decrease in VMT per capitaDecrease in auto ownershipWhat will be transportation
needs and expectations of Super-Cs?
11Slide12
Salience of Environment
Trends, Impacts, Uncertainties
Stronger sense of concern for environment among Millennials than other generations
Influence of Millennial’s lifestage
Decrease in VMT per capitaDecrease in auto ownershipIncrease non-motorized mode useIncrease in transit useTrends in Per-Capita Vehicle-Miles Traveled and Real Gross Domestic Product
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Vehicle-miles traveled: see note 2; population statistics: U.S. Census Bureau,
Historical Population Estimates,
downloaded from www.census.gov/ popest/data/historical/index.html (for 1970-2011), and U.S. Census Bureau,
Statistical Abstract of the United States,
2003, Table HS-1 (1936-1969);
gross domestic product (chained 2005 dollars): U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis,
Current-Dollar and “Real” Gross Domestic Product (Excel spreadsheet), 29
November 2012.Slide13
What is the Impact…
Conflicting
Evolving
Incomplete
…
of these
Trends on Future Travel Demand?
13Slide14
Our Approach: Impacts 2050
Tool for applying scenario approach for handling uncertainty
4 Scenarios for visioning the future
System dynamics model that represents links between population, land use, employment, and travel behavior
Enables users to:Examine socio-demographic trends and impact on travel demandBe in position to account for these trends in forecasts and plansExamine policy or other interventions that might offset trends14Slide15
Impacts 2050: 4 Scenarios
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Impacts 2050: System Dynamics Model
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User-Friendly Spreadsheet Model
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Impacts 2050: Scenario Worksheets
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Momentum Scenario: Atlanta
Year
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Population
4,247,982
5,615,248
6,865,803
8,097723
9,319,548
10,562,745
Population by Age Group
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Momentum Scenario: Atlanta
Daily Work Trips by Mode
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Gentle Footprint Scenario: Atlanta
Year
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Population
4,247,982
5,615,248
6,667,274
7,517,999
8,222.798
8,711,951
Population by Age Group
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Gentle Footprint Scenario: Atlanta
Daily Work Trips by Mode
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Enhanced Planning Approach
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Doing Better Long-Range Planning
Study products prompt change in thinking
Output is less important than process of interacting with model
Future reality is better understood by exploring multiple plausible future scenarios
Shift to thinking strategically which is more aligned with 21st century types of problems and environments 24Slide25
Full Report
(
NCHRP Report 750 Volume 6: Strategic Issues Facing Transportation—
The Effects of Socio-demographics on Future Travel Demand
)Research BriefImpacts 2050 ToolImpacts 2050 User GuideHow to Obtain Research Products
25