8 ii 2012 KIPAC 1 The Hubble Constant Current and
Description: 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 1 The Hubble Constant Current and Future Challenges Roger Blandford KIPAC Topics Why do we care? How are we doing? How many (Hubble) flowers? Physics vs magic? Validation? What next? 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 2 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 3 Why
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slide1. 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 1 The Hubble Constant Current and Future Challenges Roger Blandford
KIPAC<br>
slide2. Topics Why do we care?
How are we doing?
How many (Hubble) flowers?
Physics vs magic?
Validation?
What next? 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 2<br>
slide3. 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 3 Why do we care? Serious questions require independent Ho
Is the world flat?
Neutrinos, neutralinos, neutonian gravity
Major discoveries still possible
New components of universe?<br>
slide4. 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 4 How are we doing? Amazingly well!
Hard work
Convergence real?
We could all be measuring the same thing accurately!!<br>
slide5. 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 5 How many (Hubble) flowers? Continue all approaches as of now
Surprising conclusion
Expect some efforts to cease to be viable
TACs, students, postdocs… will cease to be interested
Future Observations
Eg Planck, weak lensing, BAO, SN…
Future Experiments
Eg LHC neutrinos direct. Indirect dark matter detection
Future Telescopes
Eg BigBoss…<br>
slide6. Physics vs magic CMB, SZ, BAO, reconstruction…
Well understood
SNIa, Masers…
Poorly understood
Lenses, TRGB, Populations, Cepheids…
Intermediate
Astrophysics
Galaxy structure, gas dynamics
Understanding physics
Enhances credibility
better control of systematics 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 6<br>
slide7. 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 7 Validation? Scientific integrity
High moral character of astronomers!
Errors in answers to important questions quickly exposed
Choose between being castigated as a fool or a knave
Need a protocal for deciding when to announce/publish
Analog of “five sigma”
Blind leading the blind?
Open boxes , distance challenges
Particle physicists vs astronomers
galaxies are like fundamental particles
Frequentist statistics
galaxies are like people (though not as easily classified!)
Bayesians – priors and evidence
Quality vs quantity
e.g. clusters/lenses vs SNIa/Cepheids
Picking cherries or making do with lemons?<br>
slide8. What next? Communique
Red(shift) brigade?
Second meeting?
2-3 yr?
Thanks
Sherry, Stefan, Martha… 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 8<br>
KIPAC<br>
slide2. Topics Why do we care?
How are we doing?
How many (Hubble) flowers?
Physics vs magic?
Validation?
What next? 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 2<br>
slide3. 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 3 Why do we care? Serious questions require independent Ho
Is the world flat?
Neutrinos, neutralinos, neutonian gravity
Major discoveries still possible
New components of universe?<br>
slide4. 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 4 How are we doing? Amazingly well!
Hard work
Convergence real?
We could all be measuring the same thing accurately!!<br>
slide5. 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 5 How many (Hubble) flowers? Continue all approaches as of now
Surprising conclusion
Expect some efforts to cease to be viable
TACs, students, postdocs… will cease to be interested
Future Observations
Eg Planck, weak lensing, BAO, SN…
Future Experiments
Eg LHC neutrinos direct. Indirect dark matter detection
Future Telescopes
Eg BigBoss…<br>
slide6. Physics vs magic CMB, SZ, BAO, reconstruction…
Well understood
SNIa, Masers…
Poorly understood
Lenses, TRGB, Populations, Cepheids…
Intermediate
Astrophysics
Galaxy structure, gas dynamics
Understanding physics
Enhances credibility
better control of systematics 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 6<br>
slide7. 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 7 Validation? Scientific integrity
High moral character of astronomers!
Errors in answers to important questions quickly exposed
Choose between being castigated as a fool or a knave
Need a protocal for deciding when to announce/publish
Analog of “five sigma”
Blind leading the blind?
Open boxes , distance challenges
Particle physicists vs astronomers
galaxies are like fundamental particles
Frequentist statistics
galaxies are like people (though not as easily classified!)
Bayesians – priors and evidence
Quality vs quantity
e.g. clusters/lenses vs SNIa/Cepheids
Picking cherries or making do with lemons?<br>
slide8. What next? Communique
Red(shift) brigade?
Second meeting?
2-3 yr?
Thanks
Sherry, Stefan, Martha… 8 ii 2012 KIPAC 8<br>