BONUS BALTIMARI Review, Evaluation, and Future of

Transcript:BONUS BALTIMARI Review, Evaluation, and Future of:
BONUS BALTIMARI Review, Evaluation, and Future of Baltic Maritime Risk Management Maritime transportation risk analysis Ketki Kulkarni Aalto University, Finland BONUS BALTIMARI 26.08.2020 Outline Prevention-oriented risk management Analysis of scientific literature Past: historic trends Present: current state-of-the-art Future: where are we headed 26.8.2020 2 Prevention-oriented risk management Waterway transportation: essential aspect of global trade, also a high-risk system. Accidents impact coastal ecosystems, economic activities of neighboring countries and socio-cultural disruption Prevention of accidents is critical. Efforts to assess risk and link it to preventive measures to enhance navigational safety. 26.8.2020 3 Preventing shipping accidents: review May 2019 search using the Web of Science database 463 articles in dataset, 207 from Baltic region Scientometric/Bibliometric Co-citation, Term map, Author collaboration analysis Integrative review Type of work performed, Aspects of risk assessment Accident theory, Human and organizational factors Modelling approaches, Uncertainty treatment Technology Readiness Level Baltic vs non-Baltic comparisons 26.8.2020 4 Analysis of scientific literature 26.8.2020 5 Output of the prevention-oriented waterway risk management research domain, by year BSR: Baltic Sea Region, NB: Non-Baltic Research aspects: type of work 26.8.2020 6 Number of articles of different types of work in each region and in each year in Baltic Sea Region Number of articles in each region in each risk assessment stage in Baltic Sea Region Human factors and uncertainty 26.8.2020 7 Summary of how articles have incorporated human and organizational factors by region Number of articles considering uncertainty, by region Modelling techniques 26.8.2020 8 Number of articles applying each modelling technique by year of publication in Baltic Sea Region Technology Readiness level 26.8.2020 9 Summary of past trends 26.8.2020 10 Accident probability modelling with traffic flow or simulation models Accident prevention to avoid loss of human life Empirical analyses of accident data, development of new modelling approaches, applications to case studies Risk identification and risk analysis phases Probabilistic models, Bayesian Networks, and simulation Do not consider human or organizational factors Do not explicitly account for uncertainties State-of-the-art Increased focus on autonomous vessels Risks of Arctic shipping Recent trend to combine maritime accident data with other data sources, such as AIS and environmental datasets Limited focus on testing and validation of proposed models Limited use of risk analysis models in organizational contexts 26.8.2020 11 Future needs Combining near misses and other safety information. Increased testing and validation of proposed models. Consideration of uncertainty in risk models and analysis. Implementation and use of risk analysis