BONUS BALTIMARI Review, Evaluation, and Future of Baltic Maritime Risk Management Maritime transportation risk analysis Ketki Kulkarni Aalto University, Finland BONUS BALTIMARI 26.08.2020 Outline Prevention-oriented risk management Analysis
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BONUS BALTIMARI Review, Evaluation, and Future of Baltic Maritime Risk Management Maritime transportation risk analysis Ketki Kulkarni Aalto University, Finland BONUS BALTIMARI 26.08.2020<br>
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Outline Prevention-oriented risk management
Analysis of scientific literature
Past: historic trends
Present: current state-of-the-art
Future: where are we headed 26.8.2020 2<br>
03
Prevention-oriented risk management Waterway transportation: essential aspect of global trade, also a high-risk system.
Accidents impact coastal ecosystems, economic activities of neighboring countries and socio-cultural disruption
Prevention of accidents is critical.
Efforts to assess risk and link it to preventive measures to enhance navigational safety. 26.8.2020 3<br>
04
Preventing shipping accidents: review May 2019 search using the Web of Science database
463 articles in dataset, 207 from Baltic region
Scientometric/Bibliometric
Co-citation, Term map, Author collaboration analysis
Integrative review
Type of work performed, Aspects of risk assessment
Accident theory, Human and organizational factors
Modelling approaches, Uncertainty treatment
Technology Readiness Level
Baltic vs non-Baltic comparisons 26.8.2020 4<br>
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Analysis of scientific literature 26.8.2020 5 Output of the prevention-oriented waterway risk management research domain, by year
BSR: Baltic Sea Region, NB: Non-Baltic<br>
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Research aspects: type of work 26.8.2020 6 Number of articles of different types of work in each region and in each year in Baltic Sea Region Number of articles in each region in each risk assessment stage in Baltic Sea Region<br>
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Human factors and uncertainty 26.8.2020 7 Summary of how articles have incorporated human and organizational factors by region Number of articles considering uncertainty, by region<br>
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Modelling techniques 26.8.2020 8 Number of articles applying each modelling technique by year of publication in Baltic Sea Region<br>
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Technology Readiness level 26.8.2020 9<br>
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Summary of past trends 26.8.2020 10 Accident probability modelling with traffic flow or simulation models
Accident prevention to avoid loss of human life
Empirical analyses of accident data, development of new modelling approaches, applications to case studies
Risk identification and risk analysis phases
Probabilistic models, Bayesian Networks, and simulation
Do not consider human or organizational factors
Do not explicitly account for uncertainties<br>
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State-of-the-art Increased focus on autonomous vessels
Risks of Arctic shipping
Recent trend to combine maritime accident data with other data sources, such as AIS and environmental datasets
Limited focus on testing and validation of proposed models
Limited use of risk analysis models in organizational contexts 26.8.2020 11<br>
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Future needs Combining near misses and other safety information.
Increased testing and validation of proposed models.
Consideration of uncertainty in risk models and analysis.
Implementation and use of risk analysis models in organizational contexts.
Development of integrated software platforms for prevention-focused shipping risk analysis 26.8.2020 12<br>
