Chapter 06 The Foreign Exchange Market 1 The
Description: Chapter 06 The Foreign Exchange Market 1 The Foreign Exchange Market Characteristics of the FOREX market Geographic extent of the foreign exchange (FOREX) market Functions of the FOREX market Market participants Foreign exchange
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slide1. Chapter 06 The Foreign Exchange Market 1<br>
slide2. The Foreign Exchange Market Characteristics of the FOREX market
Geographic extent of the foreign exchange (FOREX) market
Functions of the FOREX market
Market participants
Foreign exchange transactions – spot, forward, and swaps
Review of currency quotations used by currency dealers, financial institutions, and agents
Cross exchange rates and opportunities arising from inter-market arbitrage 2<br>
slide3. Characteristics of the FOREX Market The FOREX market provides the physical and institutional structure through which currencies are exchanged
A foreign exchange transaction is an agreement between a buyer and a seller that a fixed amount of one currency will be delivered for some other currency at a specified rate 3<br>
slide4. Geographic Extent of the Market Geographically, the FOREX market spans the globe with prices moving and currencies trading on a 24 hour basis
Major exchanges are located in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Tokyo in the East
Then it moves to Bahrain, and London for the European area
And on to New York, San Francisco, and Sydney 4<br>
slide5. Geographic Extent of the Market Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States,” 2001, www.ny.frb.org. 5<br>
slide6. Functions of the FOREX Market The FOREX market functions to transfer purchasing power between countries, obtain or provide credit for international trade, and manage the exchange rate risk
Transferring purchasing power – allow trade partners to convert foreign currency revenues into their own currency
Credit for trade – the movement of goods between countries takes time which requires financing for products in transit (letters of credit)
Managing FX exposure – the FOREX market provides “hedging” instruments to transfer exchange rate risk to someone else who is more willing to take that risk 6<br>
slide7. Market Participants The FOREX market has two parts, the interbank or wholesale market, and the client or retail market
Five broad categories of participants operate within these two parts
Bank and non-bank foreign exchange dealers
Individuals and firms
Speculators and arbitragers
Central banks and treasuries 7<br>
slide8. Market Participants: Bank and Non-bank Dealers These participants profit from buying currencies at a bid price and then reselling them at an offer or ask price
Competition among dealers narrows the spread between the bid and offer rate contributing to the market’s efficiency – lower the spread lower the costs of trading
Dealers at large international banks often act as market makers – willing to buy or sell these currencies without having a counterpart with which to unload the “inventory”
Dealers trade to keep their inventory levels at manageable levels providing liquidity
Currency trading is profitable and often contributes between 10% – 20% of a banks’ average net income 8<br>
slide9. Market Participants: Individuals and Firms Conducting Commercial/Investment Transactions Importers, exporters, portfolio investors, MNEs, tourists and others use the FOREX market to facilitate execution of commercial or investment transactions
Some of these participants use the market to hedge foreign exchange rate risk 9<br>
slide10. Market Participants: Speculators and Arbitragers Speculators and arbitragers seek to profit from trading in the market itself
They operate for their own interest
Speculators seek all their profit from favorable exchange rate changes
Arbitragers try to profit from simultaneous differences in exchange rates in different markets – without risk
A large proportion of speculation and arbitrage is executed by traders employed by large banks 10<br>
slide11. Market Participants: Central Banks and Treasuries Central banks and treasuries use FOREX to influence the value of their own currency – this is the mechanism in which reserves balances are placed at work
Consequently their motive is not to profit but rather influence the foreign exchange value of their currency in a manner that will benefit their interests 11<br>
slide12. Transactions in the Interbank Market Transactions in FOREX: spot, forward, and swap
A spot transaction requires almost immediate delivery of foreign exchange
A forward transaction requires delivery of foreign exchange at some future date
A swap transaction is the simultaneous exchange of one foreign currency for another 12<br>
slide13. Transactions in the Interbank Market A spot transaction in the interbank market is the purchase of foreign exchange with delivery and payment between banks to take place on the second following business day
The settlement date is often referred to as the value date
This is the date when most dollar transactions are settled through the computerized Clearing House Interbank Payment Systems (CHIPS) in New York 13<br>
slide14. Transactions in the Interbank Market Outright forward transaction requires delivery at a future value date of a specified amount of one currency for another
The exchange rate is agreed upon at the time of the transaction, but payment and delivery are delayed
Forward rates are contracts quoted for value dates of one, two, three, six, nine and twelve months
A contract to deliver dollars for euros in six months is both buying euros forward for dollars and selling dollars forward for euros 14<br>
slide15. Transactions in the Interbank Market A swap transaction in the interbank market is the simultaneous purchase and sale of a given amount of foreign exchange for two different value dates
Both purchase and sale are conducted with the same counter party
A common type of swap is a spot against forward
The dealer buys a currency in the spot market and simultaneously sells the same amount back to the same bank in the forward market. Why a dealer would do this?
The dealer incurs no exchange rate exposure 15<br>
slide16. Transactions in the Interbank Market Forward-forward swaps – A dealer sells £20,000 forward for dollars for delivery in two months at $1.6400/£ and simultaneously buys £20,000 forward for delivery in three months at $1.6350/£
The dealer’s motive is to take advantage of the interest rate differentials
Non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) – NDFs have the same characteristics as traditional forward contracts except that they are settled only in US dollars at maturity (dollars change hands, the amount is determined by the difference between agreed upon forward rate and actual spot rate at maturity)
The dollar-settlement feature reflects the fact that NDFs are contracted offshore and are beyond the reach and regulatory frameworks of the home country governments
Pricing of NDFs reflects basic interest rate differentials 16<br>
slide17. Size of the FOREX Market Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover, 1989-2007 (daily averages in April, billions of US$) 17<br>
slide18. Size of the FOREX Market Top 10 Geographic Trading Centers in the Foreign Exchange Market, 1992–2007 (daily averages in April, billions of U.S. dollars) 18<br>
slide19. Size of the FOREX Market Foreign Exchange Market Turnover by Currency Pair (Daily averages in April) 19<br>
slide20. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations A foreign exchange quote is a statement of willingness to buy or sell at an announced rate
In the retail market (newspapers and exchange booths), quotes are often given as the home currency price of the foreign currency
Interbank quotes – professionals state forex quotes in one of two ways
The foreign currency price of one dollar (European Quote)
Sfr1.6000/$, read as 1.600 Swiss francs per dollar
The dollar price of a unit of foreign currency (American Quote)
$0.6250/Sfr, read as 0.6250 dollars per Swiss franc 20<br>
slide21. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Direct and Indirect Quotes
A direct quote is a home currency price of a unit of a foreign currency
Sfr1.6000/$ is a direct quote in Switzerland
An indirect quote is a foreign currency price of a unit of the home currency
Sfr1.6000/$ is an indirect quote in the US,
$0.6250/Sfr is a direct quote in the US and an indirect quote in Switzerland 21<br>
slide22. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations AUD/USD bid quote should be read as 1 AUD is 0.7740 USD ($0.7740/AUD)
In the FX markets, the US Dollar is normally considered to be the “base” currency (the currency in which an investor or issuer maintains its book of accounts) for quotes, meaning that quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the other currency quoted in the pair (European). The primary exceptions to this rule are the British Pound, the Euro and the Australian Dollar (American) (indicated by *)
Rates USD/CHF show the number of Swiss franks to be paid for one US dollar, but rates GBP/USD show the number of US dollars having to be paid for one British pound 22<br>
slide23. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Expressing Forward Quotations on a Points Basis
The previously mentioned rates for yen were considered outright quotes
Forward quotes are different and typically quoted in terms of points
A point is the last digit of a quotation, with convention dictating the number of digits to the right of the decimal
Hence a point is equal to 0.0001 for most currencies => point(s) / 10,000 will convert points into decimal form
For Japanese Yen one point is 0.01 => point(s) / 100 will convert points into decimal form 23<br>
slide24. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Expressing Forward Quotations on a Points Basis
A forward quotation on a point basis is not a foreign exchange rate, rather the difference between the spot and forward rates
Example: 24<br>
slide25. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Forward Quotations in Percentage Terms
Forward quotations may also be expressed as the percent-per-annum deviation from the spot rate
The important thing to remember is which currency is being used as the home or base currency
For direct quotes (i.e. quote expressed in home currency terms), the formula is
For indirect quotes (i.e. quote expressed in foreign currency terms), the formula is 25<br>
slide26. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Cross Rates
Many currencies pairs are inactively traded, so their exchange rate is determined through their relationship to a widely traded third currency
Example: A Mexican importer needs Japanese yen to pay for purchases in Tokyo. Both the Mexican peso (Ps) and Japanese yen (¥) are quoted in US dollars
Assume the following quotes:
Japanese yen ¥121.13/$ and Mexican peso Ps9.190/$
The Mexican importer can buy one US dollar for Ps9.190 and with that dollar buy ¥121.13; the cross rate would be 26<br>
slide27. Cross Currency Arbitrage Intermarket Arbitrage
Cross rates can be used to check on opportunities for intermarket arbitrage
Example: Assume the following exchange rates are quoted
Citibank $0.9045/€
Barclays Bank $1.4443/£
Dresdner Bank €1.6200/£
The cross rate between Citibank and Barclays is
This cross rate is not the same as Dresdner’s rate quote of €1.6200/£, so an opportunity exists for risk-less profit
What is the cross rate between Citibank and Dresdner? 27<br>
slide28. Cross Currency Arbitrage Intermarket Arbitrage
Citibank $0.9045/€
Barclays Bank $1.4443/£
Dresdner Bank €1.6200/£
What is the cross rate between Barclays and Dresdner?
If you have $ at the start then the order of currency conversions (locations) is:
$ => £ (Barclays) => € (Dresdner) => $ (Citibank) 28<br>
slide29. Cross Currency Arbitrage End with $1,014,533 Start with $1,000,000 29<br>
slide30. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Direct and Indirect Quotes
A direct quote is a home currency price of a unit of a foreign currency
Sfr1.6000/$ is a direct quote in Switzerland
An indirect quote is a foreign currency price of a unit of the home currency
Sfr1.6000/$ is an indirect quote in the US,
$0.6250/Sfr is a direct quote in the US and an indirect quote in Switzerland 30<br>
slide31. Measuring a Change in Spot Rates Assume that Swiss franc is quoted at Sfr1.6000/$ (same as $0.6250/Sfr). Suddenly it strengthens to Sfr1.2800/$ (same as $0.78125/$). What is the percentage change in the dollar value of the franc? (Home currency is dollar)
Using Direct Quotes:
Using Indirect Quotes: SAME 31<br>
slide2. The Foreign Exchange Market Characteristics of the FOREX market
Geographic extent of the foreign exchange (FOREX) market
Functions of the FOREX market
Market participants
Foreign exchange transactions – spot, forward, and swaps
Review of currency quotations used by currency dealers, financial institutions, and agents
Cross exchange rates and opportunities arising from inter-market arbitrage 2<br>
slide3. Characteristics of the FOREX Market The FOREX market provides the physical and institutional structure through which currencies are exchanged
A foreign exchange transaction is an agreement between a buyer and a seller that a fixed amount of one currency will be delivered for some other currency at a specified rate 3<br>
slide4. Geographic Extent of the Market Geographically, the FOREX market spans the globe with prices moving and currencies trading on a 24 hour basis
Major exchanges are located in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Tokyo in the East
Then it moves to Bahrain, and London for the European area
And on to New York, San Francisco, and Sydney 4<br>
slide5. Geographic Extent of the Market Source: Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “The Foreign Exchange Market in the United States,” 2001, www.ny.frb.org. 5<br>
slide6. Functions of the FOREX Market The FOREX market functions to transfer purchasing power between countries, obtain or provide credit for international trade, and manage the exchange rate risk
Transferring purchasing power – allow trade partners to convert foreign currency revenues into their own currency
Credit for trade – the movement of goods between countries takes time which requires financing for products in transit (letters of credit)
Managing FX exposure – the FOREX market provides “hedging” instruments to transfer exchange rate risk to someone else who is more willing to take that risk 6<br>
slide7. Market Participants The FOREX market has two parts, the interbank or wholesale market, and the client or retail market
Five broad categories of participants operate within these two parts
Bank and non-bank foreign exchange dealers
Individuals and firms
Speculators and arbitragers
Central banks and treasuries 7<br>
slide8. Market Participants: Bank and Non-bank Dealers These participants profit from buying currencies at a bid price and then reselling them at an offer or ask price
Competition among dealers narrows the spread between the bid and offer rate contributing to the market’s efficiency – lower the spread lower the costs of trading
Dealers at large international banks often act as market makers – willing to buy or sell these currencies without having a counterpart with which to unload the “inventory”
Dealers trade to keep their inventory levels at manageable levels providing liquidity
Currency trading is profitable and often contributes between 10% – 20% of a banks’ average net income 8<br>
slide9. Market Participants: Individuals and Firms Conducting Commercial/Investment Transactions Importers, exporters, portfolio investors, MNEs, tourists and others use the FOREX market to facilitate execution of commercial or investment transactions
Some of these participants use the market to hedge foreign exchange rate risk 9<br>
slide10. Market Participants: Speculators and Arbitragers Speculators and arbitragers seek to profit from trading in the market itself
They operate for their own interest
Speculators seek all their profit from favorable exchange rate changes
Arbitragers try to profit from simultaneous differences in exchange rates in different markets – without risk
A large proportion of speculation and arbitrage is executed by traders employed by large banks 10<br>
slide11. Market Participants: Central Banks and Treasuries Central banks and treasuries use FOREX to influence the value of their own currency – this is the mechanism in which reserves balances are placed at work
Consequently their motive is not to profit but rather influence the foreign exchange value of their currency in a manner that will benefit their interests 11<br>
slide12. Transactions in the Interbank Market Transactions in FOREX: spot, forward, and swap
A spot transaction requires almost immediate delivery of foreign exchange
A forward transaction requires delivery of foreign exchange at some future date
A swap transaction is the simultaneous exchange of one foreign currency for another 12<br>
slide13. Transactions in the Interbank Market A spot transaction in the interbank market is the purchase of foreign exchange with delivery and payment between banks to take place on the second following business day
The settlement date is often referred to as the value date
This is the date when most dollar transactions are settled through the computerized Clearing House Interbank Payment Systems (CHIPS) in New York 13<br>
slide14. Transactions in the Interbank Market Outright forward transaction requires delivery at a future value date of a specified amount of one currency for another
The exchange rate is agreed upon at the time of the transaction, but payment and delivery are delayed
Forward rates are contracts quoted for value dates of one, two, three, six, nine and twelve months
A contract to deliver dollars for euros in six months is both buying euros forward for dollars and selling dollars forward for euros 14<br>
slide15. Transactions in the Interbank Market A swap transaction in the interbank market is the simultaneous purchase and sale of a given amount of foreign exchange for two different value dates
Both purchase and sale are conducted with the same counter party
A common type of swap is a spot against forward
The dealer buys a currency in the spot market and simultaneously sells the same amount back to the same bank in the forward market. Why a dealer would do this?
The dealer incurs no exchange rate exposure 15<br>
slide16. Transactions in the Interbank Market Forward-forward swaps – A dealer sells £20,000 forward for dollars for delivery in two months at $1.6400/£ and simultaneously buys £20,000 forward for delivery in three months at $1.6350/£
The dealer’s motive is to take advantage of the interest rate differentials
Non-deliverable forwards (NDFs) – NDFs have the same characteristics as traditional forward contracts except that they are settled only in US dollars at maturity (dollars change hands, the amount is determined by the difference between agreed upon forward rate and actual spot rate at maturity)
The dollar-settlement feature reflects the fact that NDFs are contracted offshore and are beyond the reach and regulatory frameworks of the home country governments
Pricing of NDFs reflects basic interest rate differentials 16<br>
slide17. Size of the FOREX Market Global Foreign Exchange Market Turnover, 1989-2007 (daily averages in April, billions of US$) 17<br>
slide18. Size of the FOREX Market Top 10 Geographic Trading Centers in the Foreign Exchange Market, 1992–2007 (daily averages in April, billions of U.S. dollars) 18<br>
slide19. Size of the FOREX Market Foreign Exchange Market Turnover by Currency Pair (Daily averages in April) 19<br>
slide20. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations A foreign exchange quote is a statement of willingness to buy or sell at an announced rate
In the retail market (newspapers and exchange booths), quotes are often given as the home currency price of the foreign currency
Interbank quotes – professionals state forex quotes in one of two ways
The foreign currency price of one dollar (European Quote)
Sfr1.6000/$, read as 1.600 Swiss francs per dollar
The dollar price of a unit of foreign currency (American Quote)
$0.6250/Sfr, read as 0.6250 dollars per Swiss franc 20<br>
slide21. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Direct and Indirect Quotes
A direct quote is a home currency price of a unit of a foreign currency
Sfr1.6000/$ is a direct quote in Switzerland
An indirect quote is a foreign currency price of a unit of the home currency
Sfr1.6000/$ is an indirect quote in the US,
$0.6250/Sfr is a direct quote in the US and an indirect quote in Switzerland 21<br>
slide22. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations AUD/USD bid quote should be read as 1 AUD is 0.7740 USD ($0.7740/AUD)
In the FX markets, the US Dollar is normally considered to be the “base” currency (the currency in which an investor or issuer maintains its book of accounts) for quotes, meaning that quotes are expressed as a unit of $1 USD per the other currency quoted in the pair (European). The primary exceptions to this rule are the British Pound, the Euro and the Australian Dollar (American) (indicated by *)
Rates USD/CHF show the number of Swiss franks to be paid for one US dollar, but rates GBP/USD show the number of US dollars having to be paid for one British pound 22<br>
slide23. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Expressing Forward Quotations on a Points Basis
The previously mentioned rates for yen were considered outright quotes
Forward quotes are different and typically quoted in terms of points
A point is the last digit of a quotation, with convention dictating the number of digits to the right of the decimal
Hence a point is equal to 0.0001 for most currencies => point(s) / 10,000 will convert points into decimal form
For Japanese Yen one point is 0.01 => point(s) / 100 will convert points into decimal form 23<br>
slide24. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Expressing Forward Quotations on a Points Basis
A forward quotation on a point basis is not a foreign exchange rate, rather the difference between the spot and forward rates
Example: 24<br>
slide25. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Forward Quotations in Percentage Terms
Forward quotations may also be expressed as the percent-per-annum deviation from the spot rate
The important thing to remember is which currency is being used as the home or base currency
For direct quotes (i.e. quote expressed in home currency terms), the formula is
For indirect quotes (i.e. quote expressed in foreign currency terms), the formula is 25<br>
slide26. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Cross Rates
Many currencies pairs are inactively traded, so their exchange rate is determined through their relationship to a widely traded third currency
Example: A Mexican importer needs Japanese yen to pay for purchases in Tokyo. Both the Mexican peso (Ps) and Japanese yen (¥) are quoted in US dollars
Assume the following quotes:
Japanese yen ¥121.13/$ and Mexican peso Ps9.190/$
The Mexican importer can buy one US dollar for Ps9.190 and with that dollar buy ¥121.13; the cross rate would be 26<br>
slide27. Cross Currency Arbitrage Intermarket Arbitrage
Cross rates can be used to check on opportunities for intermarket arbitrage
Example: Assume the following exchange rates are quoted
Citibank $0.9045/€
Barclays Bank $1.4443/£
Dresdner Bank €1.6200/£
The cross rate between Citibank and Barclays is
This cross rate is not the same as Dresdner’s rate quote of €1.6200/£, so an opportunity exists for risk-less profit
What is the cross rate between Citibank and Dresdner? 27<br>
slide28. Cross Currency Arbitrage Intermarket Arbitrage
Citibank $0.9045/€
Barclays Bank $1.4443/£
Dresdner Bank €1.6200/£
What is the cross rate between Barclays and Dresdner?
If you have $ at the start then the order of currency conversions (locations) is:
$ => £ (Barclays) => € (Dresdner) => $ (Citibank) 28<br>
slide29. Cross Currency Arbitrage End with $1,014,533 Start with $1,000,000 29<br>
slide30. Foreign Exchange Rates & Quotations Direct and Indirect Quotes
A direct quote is a home currency price of a unit of a foreign currency
Sfr1.6000/$ is a direct quote in Switzerland
An indirect quote is a foreign currency price of a unit of the home currency
Sfr1.6000/$ is an indirect quote in the US,
$0.6250/Sfr is a direct quote in the US and an indirect quote in Switzerland 30<br>
slide31. Measuring a Change in Spot Rates Assume that Swiss franc is quoted at Sfr1.6000/$ (same as $0.6250/Sfr). Suddenly it strengthens to Sfr1.2800/$ (same as $0.78125/$). What is the percentage change in the dollar value of the franc? (Home currency is dollar)
Using Direct Quotes:
Using Indirect Quotes: SAME 31<br>