ECONOMICS OF COLLUSION Cartels , collusion and

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slide1. ECONOMICS OF COLLUSION Cartels , collusion and others Sapienza – Economia e Politica Industriale
Marzo-Maggio 2023
andrea.pezzoli@agcm.it<br>
slide2. SOME PRELIMINARY REMARKS TO KEEP IN MIND Consumer welfare standard vs the protection of the competitive process
Efficiency as the sole goal of antitrust vs multiple goals
Does the economic approach focus solely on efficiency
What about economic freedom and dynamic efficiency?
«Antitrust protects competition, not competitors»
Rather than competition the consumer welfare standard protects the outcome of past competition 2<br>
slide3. Cartels, Horizontal agreements, Concerted Practices…The contribution of economic analysis One of the few issues where we register a wide agreement among the the different economic approaches…Collusion is universally disapproved!
A wide consensus from Chicago to Hipster antitrust: cartels are the worst of the possible antitrust sins!!! Whatever the efficiency concept, cartels are bad…
Definition of relevant markets? Does the definition of relevant market matter in the assessment of cartels?
The thin line between explicit and implicit collusion
Cartels screening (not to find the thief but to understand if there might be a crime) 3<br>
slide4. Cartels, Horizontal agreements, Concerted Practices… “People of the same trade seldom meet together, even for merriment and diversion, but the conversation ends in a conspiracy against the public, or in some contrivance to raise price” (Adam Smith, 1776) 4<br>
slide5. Detection
Deterrence
Stability
Deviation
Maverick
Retaliation
Leniency
Whistleblowing
Settlements
Compliance Programs
Exchange of minds vs. Intelligent and Unilateral Adjustment Cartels, Horizontal Agreements, Concerted Practices: Key words 5<br>
slide6. Not all horizontal agreements are restrictive agreements

Hard core cartels (illegal per se) and horizontal agreements

By object vs by effect: clear dichotomy or moving boundaries? By object does not mean per se

Explicit and tacit (implicit) collusion: not only a semantical issue… Cartels, Horizontal agreements, Concerted Practices… 6<br>
slide7. Cartels are easier to sustain in:
Concentrated industry
With a small number of suppliers
Similar cost structures
Homogeneus goods or services,
Stable and inelastic demand,
Limited technological change
High degree of transparency

But even in fragmented and «mature» industries cartels may be seen as a defensive reply to the risk of declining…as a surrogate of an ineffective welfare policy… Where Do We Find Cartels? Economic Analysis and Cartels Screening… 7<br>
slide8. Chicago (Bork) and a narrow definition of hardcore cartels: only naked cartels should be illegal per se (i.e. only when cartels are not ancillary to cooperative productive activities engaged by the parties): even price fixing, market sharing or other ways aimed at eliminating rivalry) should be judged according the standards applicable to horizontal mergers!! Hardcore cartels 8<br>
slide9. In EU Competition Law the concept of per se does not exist

Some horizontal agreements may fall within the “restrictions by object”: price-fixing, market sharing; exchanging information which reduces uncertainty about future behaviour; market sharing; limiting output (including the removal of excess capacity); limiting sales; collective exclusive dealings; paying competitors for delaying le launch of competing products (Whish and Bailey, 2015) Hardcore cartels and restrictions by object 9<br>
slide10. What does “by object” mean?

Is economic analysis still useful?

How? The counterfactual…«What if»… Hardcore cartels and restrictions by object 10<br>
slide11. Even agreements classed as by object restrictions may achieve efficiency benefits?

The dichotomy between object and effect is not so clear-cut

Considering economic effects under the object assessment is not cast as a balance to any restrictive effects, but rather as an assessment of whether the agreement restricts competition in the first place

It is generally necessary to assess the content of the agreement; the objectives it seeks to attain; the economic and legal context of which it forms part… Restrictions by object (can we fully ignore the effect?) 11<br>
slide12. Cartes Bancaires (2014) In 1984 in France the groupement des cartes bancaires (CB) was created so that the holders of payment cards issued by a member of CB could make payments to affiliated merchants and withdrawals from cash machines operated by members
Pricing (or fee transfers) arrangements were agreed between members
European Commission concluded that the pricing measures adopted by CB were an infringement by object and effect (2007)
On appeal the General Court supported the decision but…only restrictions by object…no need to examine the effects
The ECJ overturned this ruling: “the concept of by object can be applied only to certain types of coordination between undertakings which reveal a sufficient harm to competition that it may be found that there is no need to examine their effects” (2014) 12<br>
slide13. We just observe a peculiar parallelism (anomalies) in the market (endogenous element) and we have to prove if it is the consequence of a restrictive agreement or of a rational, unilateral adjustment

We need also evidence of qualified contacts (exogenous element)…otherwise Antitrust agencies have to prove that the anomalies cannot be explained but with the existence of a cartel!

The conditions under which collusion is likely to be sustained do not differ much between tacit and explicit collusion

Tacit collusion is not a violation of competition law. We can cope with it only with merger review (dealing with coordinated effects and with market structure which facilitates collusion…collective dominance…) Concerted Practices, between explicit and tacit collusion 13<br>
slide14. Pricing algorithms can make cartels more stable…
Can facilitate collusion…
But what if they just make unilateral and independent adjustments faster and more intelligent?
And what if pricing decisions are no more taken by human beings but deep learning algorithms (i.e. robots) Algorithms and Collusion 14<br>
slide15. Algorithms and Collusion 15<br>
slide16. How frequent?

What’s the degree of disaggregation?

How sensitive the information and the data?

Historical, present or future data?

Can the information be found in the public domain?

Which is the context in which the exchange of information takes place

Horizontal (between competitors) and Vertical (between firms and consumers) transparency

Public Announcements Exchanges of Information 16<br>
slide17. Chiquita, Dole and Weichert between 2000 and 2002 exchanged weekly information on prices and volumes in advance of agreeing contracts with costumers in northern Europe

Bilateral pre-pricing communications prior to setting their quatations (volumes, price trends, market information and likely future quatation prices…)

Actual prices (not directly linked to the shared quatation prices) were agreed with costumers in weekly negotiations (and took into consideration their different barganaing power) but …without the veal of ignorance that is the «salt» of competition!! (see on this point, Harrington)

In 2013 the General Court stated that it was a by object infringement (Del Monte and Dole v. Commission, 14 March 2013) Exchanges of Information: Bananas (2013) again!! 17<br>
slide18. A Vertical Expression of Two Horizontal Desires:Hub &Spoke 18<br>
slide19. Indirect information exchange: communicating via costumers or suppliers

England replica shirt and European Footbsll Championship 2000

Umbro
JJB Sports-----------Sports Soccer A Vertical Expression of Two Horizontal Desires: Hub &Spoke 19<br>
slide20. Pros and Cons of Joint Purchasing (i.e. Supermarkets and purchasing alliances) and Selling (e.g. Joint selling of Sport Rights)

R&D and licensing agreements

Settlement agreements in the Pharma industry: dispute between originators and generics over the validity of the branded company’s patents: they can settle…reverse payment (or pay for delay) in exchange of dropping the litigation

If the generic decides to litigate in the absence of a settlement; if the litigation is resolved before the patent expiry date; if the genneric firm wins the litigation, banning settlement agreement may facilitate entry…

When the settlement values are large and linked to the generic’s forgone profits…

Economic incentives regarding R&D in innovative markets are complex…an effects based approach would be more appropriate…. Beyond Restrictive Agreements… 20<br>
slide21. Hardcore or per se restrictions
Quick look
Deeper look
Potential effect
Actual effect

By object (1-3 or even 1-4)
By effect (4-5) A recap 21<br>
slide22. Assessing the efficiency benefits under art. 101(3) and see if they outweigh any restrictive effects identified under art. 101(1)

Four conditions: i) improvement of the production or distribution of goods or promotion of technical or economic progress; ii) consumers must receive a fair share of the resulting benefits; iii) inclusion of the restrictions that are indispensable to the attainment of these objectives (i.e. proportionality test); iv ) competition shouldn’t be eliminated in a substantial part of the market Restrictions by object and efficiency benefits 22<br>
slide23. Leniency as a crucial tool for detection!…and to threaten cartel stability

Deterrence: Cartel’s profits vs. probability to be detected times the amount of fine

In Spain 2008, queues of applicants outside the offices of the Spanish Authority... In Italy too, in recent years the number of leniency applicants has significantly increased…

Incentive theory at work: reaping the benefits of a cartel for many years and the confessing «in time» for immunity!! A proportion of the fine (up to 100% for the first applicant) will be waved

What about private enforcement and criminal implications? Leniency Programs and Cartel Stability 23<br>
slide24. Competition and Sustainability are not at odds

Trade-off between competition and sustainability

How deal with collective and/or inter-generational benefits? What about the second requirement for the application of art. 101 (3)?

More generally, what about public interests and antitrust? Sustainable Agreements 24<br>
slide25. ECONOMICS OF COLLUSION (?) Verticals Luiss - 1 October 2021
andrea.pezzoli@agcm.it<br>
slide26. Vertical Restraints and or Vertical Restrictions? Vertical restraints are generally less harmul than horizontal restraints

The alignement of the interests of sellers and buyers aimed at promoting high quality, high volumes, low retail prices

Resale Price Maintenence (RPM) and Exclusive Territories

Intra and Inter-brand competition 26<br>
slide27. Vertical Restraints and or Vertical Restrictions? Unlikely horizontal agreements in the competitive assessment of verticals market definition plays a crucial role

Verticals, efficiency and the protection of the competitive process: Chicago, post-Chicago and the return of the structuralist approach… 27<br>
slide28. Vertical Restraints and or Vertical Restrictions? Apple and 5 major publishers: matching any retail price for e-books that was offered by other book retailers
The leading manufacturer of false teeth in US refused to supply its products to independent dealers if they sold competing dentures
The French maker of wedding dresses granted its frenchisees in Germany esclusive territories but did not allow them to open new shops or sell competing wedding dresses
In 1992 VW did not allow Italian dealers to sell cars to people leaving outside Italy (parallel trade) 28<br>
slide29. Economic rationales for vertical restraints Coase, Posner, Williamson and the transaction costs…

The goal of a manufacturer is generally to encourage its distributors to increase sales: agreements which provide low retail prices and high quality distribution (e..g. pre and post sales services)

Principal-Agent theory and the alignement of incentives 29<br>
slide30. Economic rationales for vertical restraints The problem of double marginalization

The free riding problems: i) other manufacturers; ii) other distributors…

The hold up problem: relationship-specific investements 30<br>
slide31. The problem of double marginalization Worse than a monopolist? A succession of monopolists…

Vertical agreements can overcome the multiple marginalization problem

The most complete form of vertical coordination is vertical integration 31<br>
slide32. The free riding problems The typical problem of externality: I make an effort which benefits another party (e.g. my rival) that does not contribute to the effort!!

Vertical restraints as a mean to internalize externalities… 32<br>
slide33. The free riding problems: other manufacturers A manufacturer invests in the distribution channel to promote the sales of its products. Rival producers use the same outlets without contributing to the investment (e.g. Unilever and freezer cabinets free of charge…)

Exclusive dealing? Minimum percentage of the retailers’ sale? 33<br>
slide34. The free riding problems: other distributors A manufacturer may want its dealers to provide pre and post-sales services to consumers (e.g. particularly important for experience goods and for maintenaince/spare parts)

Exclusive territory, RPM?

Any discounting by free riders would be ruled out…

What about on line sales ? 34<br>
slide35. The hold up problem: relationship-specific investements A low cost airline company encourages an under utilized regional airport to develop and grow

The Airport needs to invest (terminals, handling facilities…); the airline commits to base a minimum number of aircraft

It requires some guarantees that the airline is indeed going to use the airport (exclusive dealing, the airline agrees to not fly from rival airports…reasonable duration for the exclusivity…)

The investments are highly specific…to reassure the airline the airport guarantees substantial discounts… 35<br>
slide36. Other distribution efficiencies and vertical restraints Economies of scale in distribution and reduction in the number of the dealers (exclusive territory)

Incentive to promote the product (particulary important for a new entrant in a new geographic market)

Optimal stock levels

Protection of producer’s brand and reputation: selective distribution

Vertical agreements as a bargaining outcome (e.g. relations between major supermarkets and their suppliers…) 36<br>
slide37. Foreclosure effects of vertical restraints: Market definition matters Vertical restraint or abuse of dominance (Unilever and the ice cream market…)

Networks of agreements. Forclosure and market power under art. 101 (1) is generally less than the degree required for finding a dominance under art. 102… From an economic perspective if the foreclosure is the concern, the same criteria should apply…

Minimum efficient size for the new entrant and the possibility to discipline the incumbent 37<br>
slide38. Hardocore vertical restraints: RPM? Cartels eliminate inter-brand competition; RPM eliminates only intra-brand competition

Yet competition law has generally treated RPM with hostility until very recently (hardcore restriction?)

In EU RPM agreements cannot qualify for a block exemption (an exemption may be granted under art. 101 (3), on a case by case basis…)

RPM as a facilitator for horizontal collusion among suppliers or distributors (do you remember Hub &Spoke?) 38<br>
slide39. Hardcore vertical restraints: Exclusive Territories Exclusive territory clause and parallel trade and the objective in the EU Treaty to create a Single Market…
In the 90’s in Italy prices of VW were 20-30% lower, because of the exchange rate …
Was VW entitled to protect its German dealers? 39<br>
slide40. Vertical Restraints in Online and Digital Markets Selective Distribution (Pierre Fabre and Coty …)

Most Favoured Nation-clauses (Booking/Expedia …)

The Apple e-books case (again MFN): was the agency agreement the only way Apple could have entered the market? And Apple entry broke down Amazon monopoly?

MFN can facilitate horizontal collusion (among publishers) but assessing vertical restraints in dynamic markets such as e-book is a very difficult task!!

Apple/Amazon and dual distribution: an anticipation of the VBER… 40<br>