EU Survey April 2019 Methodology Conducted by

Transcript:EU Survey April 2019 Methodology Conducted by:
EU Survey April 2019 Methodology Conducted by Expedition Strategies April 4-10, 2019. 1503 total online interviews in the European Union, weighted proportionally by voting age population. Voters who vote sometimes, most of the time, or always in their country. Margin of error: ±2.53% (higher among subgroups) Methodology We completed the following number of interviews in each country, and weighted the final data proportionally based on voting age population. Final weighted percentages: Germany (G) – which represents 30% of the electorate. France (F) – which represents 23% of the electorate. Poland (P) – which represents 14% of the electorate. Sweden (S) – which represents 4% of the electorate. Netherlands (N) – which represents 6% of the electorate. Italy (I) – which represents 23% of the electorate. Overview Widespread voter anxiety about economic and political conditions. Most believe the economy is working for the wealthy, but many are concerned about how it works for themselves. Other important voter concerns: immigration, climate change. Most say their country and the EU are headed the wrong way. That means: 1) in many cases the status quo will be a bigger risk than change. So the default would be to vote for change; and 2) there will be little tolerance being asked to accept less (fewer benefits, higher taxes) – particularly unless the burden appears to be shared. Voters are (not surprisingly) far less concerned about conditions in Europe than in their own conditions – particularly economic. Most see the EU as important for addressing a small number of challenges – mostly related to harmonizing policies. But improving economic conditions such as wages is largely viewed as a national responsibility, not EU. Overwhelming agreement that small and medium-sized businesses need help to be more successful even though many industries (finance, health, technology, pharmaceuticals) are viewed as areas of concern. Top Takeaways – Social Democrats Legacy support for Social Democrats but lack of clear party definition, and legacy goodwill is higher than actual support in elections. On the key issues of the day such as jobs, taxes, climate change, immigration, the Social Democrats do not have particularly strong standing. Liberals and Greens benefit most from this but also conservatives. No party is clear favorite to address key economic issues (wages, jobs, taxes) but Nationalists have standing on immigration and security and Greens dominate climate change. Security and immigration issues are somewhat conflated in the minds of voters