EU Survey April 2019 Methodology Conducted by

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Overview Widespread voter anxiety about economic and political conditions. Most believe the economy is working for the wealthy, but many are concerned about how it works for themselves. Other important voter concerns: immigration, climate change.
Most say their country and the EU are headed the wrong way. That means: 1) in many cases the status quo will be a bigger risk than change. So the default would be to vote for change; and 2) there will be little tolerance being asked to accept less (fewer benefits, higher taxes) – particularly unless the burden appears to be shared.
Voters are (not surprisingly) far less concerned about conditions in Europe than in their own conditions – particularly economic.
Most see the EU as important for addressing a small number of challenges – mostly related to harmonizing policies. But improving economic conditions such as wages is largely viewed as a national responsibility, not EU.
Overwhelming agreement that small and medium-sized businesses need help to be more successful even though many industries (finance, health, technology, pharmaceuticals) are viewed as areas of concern.

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Top Takeaways – Social Democrats Legacy support for Social Democrats but lack of clear party definition, and legacy goodwill is higher than actual support in elections.
On the key issues of the day such as jobs, taxes, climate change, immigration, the Social Democrats do not have particularly strong standing. Liberals and Greens benefit most from this but also conservatives.
No party is clear favorite to address key economic issues (wages, jobs, taxes) but Nationalists have standing on immigration and security and Greens dominate climate change.
Security and immigration issues are somewhat conflated in the minds of voters (i.e. immigration is a security issue) but Nationalists are out of step when they cross the line from anti-immigration policy to anti-immigration.
Increased benefits are a problematic issue – support for lower taxes is as great or greater. And a significant number are concerned that too many benefits to go immigrants under current rules.

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Top Takeaways – Social Democrats Competition From Other Parties Voters’ priorities are clear – economy, immigration, and environment. The Social Democrats have less definition as a party than do several others parties Social Democrats can compete with the Greens on climate change

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Top Takeaways – Social Democratic Opportunities Economic: voters are pushing more for help with wages and taxes than they are with increased benefits.
Voters across countries surveyed say the way forward should focus on helping small and medium sized businesses rather than on the large companies
Widespread concern that the economy is working for the rich and not for others.
Immigration: openness to immigration but major concerns about whether current distribution of immigrants is fair as well as concern about impact immigration has on security and social benefits (i.e. a shared approach across the EU)
Climate Change: opportunity to seize the mantle of climate change with solutions that ask for a shared contribution rather than ones that would be seen as singling out some people directly (i.e. not diesel taxes)

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Political Landscape

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Political Landscape A majority of voters see things in Europe and in their own country as moving in the wrong direction.
Voters top-concerns are mostly economic related (inequality, wages, and taxes being too high) but also climate change and issues related to immigration.

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Q20. Do you generally think things in Europe are headed in the right direction or are they on the wrong track? Right Direction Wrong Track Significant Pessimism Across Countries – Particularly In France, Sweden, Italy Country Direction

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Jobs, Wages, Immigration, Environment Are Top ConcernsConcerns about immigration are lowest in Poland and Italy Q22-Q23. In your opinion, which of these problems you would like to see your government address the most/next most? Most Important Issue
Top Choice Only % Immigration Top Choice By Country
Germany: 13%
France: 16%
Poland: 0%
Sweden: 23%
Netherlands: 15%
Italy: 6%

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The Underlying Emotion: “Worry” About Economic Future Is Dominant – Not Optimism Or Anger Economic Future Q39. Which best describes how you feel when you think of the economy in your country for the next ten years?

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French and Italian Voters Are Most “Worried” About Economics Economic Future Q39. Which best describes how you feel when you think of the economy in your country for the next ten years?

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Q29. Now, I will read some statements that are related to issues in Europe. Using a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not concerned at all about it and 10 means you are very concerned about it, please rate the following... Economic Concerns Are The Highest Followed Closely By Climate Change

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Global And Long-Term Economic Concerns Are Relatively Lower Q29. Now, I will read some statements that are related to issues in Europe. Using a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not concerned at all about it and 10 means you are very concerned about it, please rate the following...

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Income Inequality, Taxes, Wages Are Common ConcernsNationalists are most concerned about high cost of living and children being worse off from their parents, suggesting they are most economically stressed Social-Democratic Nationalist The rich are getting richer all the time (52%)
The cost of living is rising faster than incomes (46%)
Climate change (46%) Taxes are too high (65%)
Immigrants are coming into your country (59%)
The cost of living is rising faster than incomes (57%)
Today’s children will be worse off than their parents (57%) Con. The cost of living is rising faster than incomes (34%)
Taxes are too high (34%)
Immigrants are coming into your country (33%) Liberal The cost of living is rising faster than incomes (42%)
Too many people are getting benefits without earning them (42%)
The rich are getting richer all the time (40%) Far-Left Green The rich are getting richer all the time (56%)
Taxes are too high (54%)
Big companies are taking advantage of the average worker (50%) Climate change (65%)
The rich are getting richer all the time (47%)
Too many people are getting benefits without earning them (47%) Top Concerns By Party -- % Very Concerned Q29. Now, I will read some statements that are related to issues in Europe. Using a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not concerned at all about it and 10 means you are very concerned about it, please rate the following...

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Q38. How would you rate the economy in your country? How would you rate the economy in your country? Germans Have Most Positive Outlook About Their Economy; France And Italy The Most Negative

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Political Party Preferences

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Top Takeaways – Political Party Preferences Voters in Poland and Italy specifically do not generically say they support Nationalists’ parties at the same rate at which they identify with Nationalist parties in their respective countries.
This is an indication that some voters do not see the parties they support as Nationalist when in fact they are.

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Q25. Which type of political party to you tend to prefer in elections in your country?
Q26. Thinking about the parties you tend to support in elections, how often do you vote for the Social Democratic Party candidate in your country? Political Party More Identify As Generally Preferring Social Democrats, But Less Than 7-In-10 Of Those Vote Social-Democrat Almost All The Time Or Frequently How often do you vote for the Social Democratic Party candidate in your country?
Among Voters Who Identify As Social-Democratic

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How People Who Tend to Like Social Democrats Actually Vote: Swedish and German Parties Retain the Most Support Germany
N=99 France
N=86 Social Democrats (SPD) – 66%

Christian Democratic Union (CDU) – 21%

Christian Social Union (CSU) – 4% La République En Marche! (REM) – 47%

Socialist Party (PS) – 16%

La France Insoumise (FI) – 13% Poland
N=44 Civic Platform (PO) – 36%

Law and Justice (PiS) – 24%

Democratic Left Alliance (SLD) – 16% Sweden
N=63 Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) – 76%

Sweden Democrats (SD) – 8%

Christian Democrats (KD) – 8% Netherlands
N=64 Italy
N=90 Democrats 66 (D66) – 22%

Forum for Democracy (FvD) – 19%

Socialist Party (SP) – 16%

Labour Party (PvdA) – 16% Democratic Party (Partito Democratico) – 48%

Five Star Movement (Movimento Cinque Stelle) – 23%

Forward Italy (Forza Italia) – 16% Social-Democratic Party Preferences By Country

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Social-Democratic Party Has the Oldest Base of Support; Nationalists Are Primarily In France and Italy

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Q26. Thinking about the parties you tend to support in elections, how often do you vote for the Social Democratic Party candidate in your country?
Q27. In the past, did you support the Social Democratic Party in your country more, less, or about the same as you do now? (If Q26 = sometimes/rarely or never) How often do you vote for the Social Democratic Party candidate in your country? In the past, did you support the Social Democratic Party in your country more, less, or about the same as you do now?
(Asked of 977 voters who support the Social Democratic Party Sometimes or Rarely/Never) A Majority Sometimes Or Rarely/Never Support Social Democrats

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Potential Social Democratic Voters

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Top Takeaways – Target SD Voters They are defined as anyone said they used to support Social Democrats more than they do now.
They make up 13% of the electorate.
Moving mostly towards the Liberals and Greens.
Climate change and economic concerns are high among these voters.
Social Democrats compete with Greens on climate and Liberals and Conservatives on the economy with these voters.
These voters do not see Social Democrats as most likely to be competent or get things done.

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Q25. Which type of political party to you tend to prefer in elections in your country? Target Voters Say They Are Moving More to Liberal and Green than to Conservatives, Nationalists or Far-Left How Target (Potential SD) Voters Have Shifted

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Q29. Now, I will read some statements that are related to issues in Europe. Using a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not concerned at all about it and 10 means you are very concerned about it, please rate the following... Compared To All Voters, Target Voters Are More Concerned About The Rich Getting Richer And Economic Futures

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Q29. Now, I will read some statements that are related to issues in Europe. Using a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 means you are not concerned at all about it and 10 means you are very concerned about it, please rate the following... A Lack Of Good Jobs Is A Stronger Concern For Target Voters Than All Voters

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Q31. Please tell us which type of party in your country you would trust the most to handle the following issues. Social Democrats and Liberals Compete on Job Creation and Privacy – Greens Dominate on Climate Among Target Voters

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Economic Landscape

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Top Takeaways – Economic Landscape In most countries, large majorities say they think the E.U.’s economy is not as strong as the U.S. (Germany is the exception and they are divided).
In terms of economic challenges: desire for jobs and concern about strains placed on society by immigration are significant. Push for increased social benefits is less of a priority. And concern about wages comes through strongly throughout the survey.
A plurality say China is the E.U.’s greatest economic threat and say China is most likely to develop the next big research breakthrough (not Europe and not the U.S.).

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Q41. Which is closer to your view of the European Union countries’ economy? It is stronger than the United States’ economy It is not as strong as the United States’ economy Which is closer to your view of the European Union countries’ economy? Large Majorities In Most Countries Think The E.U.’s Economy Is Not As Strong As The U.S.

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Q31. Please tell us which type of party in your country you would trust the most to handle the following issues. Social Democrats Compete With Conservatives And Liberals On Economic Issues, Nationalists On Security, Greens On Climate Please tell us which type of party in your country you would trust the most to handle the following issues:

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Nationalists And The Far Left Focus On Different Aspects Of The Benefits Issue Biggest Economic Challenges Q45. What do you think are the biggest economic challenges that you would like to your government address?

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Q48. Which do you think the government should focus more on to help the economy in your country? Helping small and medium sized businesses grow and hire Keeping large employers competitive against foreign competitors Which do you think the government should focus more on to help the economy in your country? Across The Board Voters Prefer The Government To Help Small And Medium Businesses Over Large Employers

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Q50. Which of the following do you consider the biggest economic threat that concerns you?
Q86. Which do you consider to be the most innovative and most likely to develop the next big breakthrough? Biggest Economic Threats China Looms As The Major Economic Challenger Most Likely To Develop Next Big Breakthrough

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European Union

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Top Takeaways – Views About E.U. Most see the E.U. as a positive force when it comes to personal freedom, the ability to live where they want to, and the ability for companies to be successful.
But, three-quarters say the E.U. has had no positive impact and a third see a negative impact on wages – which is a major voter concern.
E.U. seen as best when it comes to issues like climate change that impact countries across borders, while parliaments are trusted more when it comes to government spending and benefits.
Pro-Brexit Nationalists are out-of-step with their views (not all share this view).

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Q32. Please tell us if being a member of the European Union has had a positive, negative, or had no major effect on each of the following in your country. Effect of European Union Voters Think The E.U. Had A Positive Effect On Freedom And Choices, But Not Wages

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Q30. Now you will see some issues that government often addresses. Please tell us if you would prefer to have each one primarily addressed by the European Union parliament in Brussels, so the rules or regulations would apply to all countries in the EU, or primarily addressed by the parliament in your country. Top Government Issues E.U. Parliament Seen As The Best To Address Climate Change The Environment, And Technology Companies

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Q30. Now you will see some issues that government often addresses. Please tell us if you would prefer to have each one primarily addressed by the European Union parliament in Brussels, so the rules or regulations would apply to all countries in the EU, or primarily addressed by the parliament in your country. Bottom Government Issues Voters Overwhelmingly Want Their Own Country’s Government To Control Government Spending And Benefits

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The Role of the E.U. and Nationalists There are clearly differences between the parties on the question of the role of the E.U. but most voters in all major parties (including nationalists) agree the E.U. should take a major role on:
Climate
Environmental protection
Technology privacy
Product labeling

Liberals and SD voters have many shared views on the E.U. Voters in both groups tend to support a major role on privacy (in general), trade, food safety and immigration.

And half of conservatives also say the E.U. should have a major role on immigration and trade.

But 71% of nationalists see immigration primarily as a national issue, not E.U.

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Q51. Do you usually think of other countries in the European Union as economic allies of your own country, economic enemies, or neither a threat nor an ally? Do you usually think of other countries in the European Union as economic allies of your own country, economic enemies, or neither a threat nor an ally? Social Dems And Liberals Most Likely To See E.U. Countries As Economic Allies - Nationalists See As Threat

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Q33. Which side of the Brexit debate do you personally identify more with? Those who are arguing in favor of Brexit and believe the UK should leave the European Union Those who are arguing against Brexit and believe the UK should not leave the European Union Which side of the Brexit debate do you personally identify more with? Nationalists Mostly Isolated In Their Pro-Brexit Views – But Some Common Ground With Far Left

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Q35. Thinking about the European Union, which is closest to your view? Deeper European integration will benefit your country economically and socially Your country has already ceded too much of its sovereignty to Brussels Thinking about the European Union, which is closest to your view? Social Dems, Liberals, Greens Support EU Integration – Most Nationalists, Conservatives And Far-Left Do Not

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Immigration

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Top Takeaways – Immigration Islamist terrorism is a concern across parties, but primarily among Nationalists.
However, most voters believe immigration has had a negative impact on their country.
Security concerns and budget strains are seen as the top-negative impacts of immigration – more significant than cultural changes.
A plurality say they want their country to do more to limit migration, but there is larger support for allowing migrants in as long as all countries do their fair share.

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Q88. Which is closer to your view about nationalist parties in your country? They are motivated by prejudice They are justifiably motivated by concerns about jobs and security Which is closer to your view about nationalist parties in your country? Nationalist Motives Questioned The Most In Germany And Poland

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Q58. Where does the greatest security threat to Europeans come from today? Where does the greatest security threat to Europeans come from today? Nationalists Are Primarily Concerned About Islamist Terrorism But Many Others Share That Concern

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Q59. Which is closest to how you see the way immigration has affected your country? Which is closest to how you see the way immigration has affected your country? Most Believe Immigration Has Had A Negative Impact On Their Country

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Q60. What do you see as the main negative impact of immigration? What do you see as the main negative impact of immigration?
(Asked of 813 voters who say immigration has had a negative effect on their country) Of Those Who Say Immigration Has Had A Negative Impact, Security And Strain On The Budget Are Primary Concerns

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Q63. When it comes to the issue of immigration, which is closer to your view? Regionally, Only In Germany And Sweden Do A Majority Believe Immigrants Are A Positive Force

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Q64. When it comes to the issue of immigration, which is closer to your view? Immigrants mainly have a positive impact on our economy because Europe needs more workers Immigrants mainly have a negative impact on our economy because they put a strain on budgets and benefits When it comes to the issue of immigration, which is closer to your view? Conservatives And Nationalists Are Most Likely To Say Immigrants Have A Negative Impact On The Economy

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Immigration Policy Preferences

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Q66. Do you want your country to do more, less or about the same to limit migration to Europe? Do you want your country to do more, less, or about the same to limit migration to Europe? A Plurality Of Voters In All Countries Want Their Country To Do More To Limit Migration To Europe

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Q67. When it comes to the issue of migration in Europe, whose view is closer to your own? One who says Europe must find a way to bring migrants who are fleeing violence in their countries into Europe, but should do so in a way where all countries do their fair share One who says Europe must close its borders and prevent migrants from entering the European Union When it comes to the issue of migration in Europe, whose view is closer to your own? Support For Closing Borders Is Highest In France And Poland

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Q67. When it comes to the issue of migration in Europe, whose view is closer to your own? One who says Europe must find a way to bring migrants who are fleeing violence in their countries into Europe, but should do so in a way where all countries do their fair share One who says Europe must close its borders and prevent migrants from entering the European Union When it comes to the issue of migration in Europe, whose view is closer to your own? Support For Closing Borders Is Concentrated Among Nationalists And Conservatives

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Q68. When it comes to the migrant crisis in Europe, do you support or oppose tougher border checks on migrants coming to Europe from Africa?
Q69. When it comes to the migrant crisis in Europe, do you support or oppose cracking down on smugglers’ boats bringing migrants to Europe from Africa?
Q70. When it comes to the migrant crisis in Europe, do you support or oppose a new migration policy that would only admit people who have a job offer from a company in your country? Do you support or oppose these immigration measures? Tougher Measures Towards The Border And Smugglers’ Boats From Africa Are Popular Among Voters When It Comes To Immigration Total Support

77%

76%

64%

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Tech Industry Views

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Top Takeaways – Tech Industry Views There is higher concern about protecting privacy in the E.U. than we found in the U.S.
Most voters want tech companies to do more to protect data privacy.
Voters are divided on the role big tech plays in society, but most say tech is beneficial to their lives. And at a time of economic stress, they overwhelmingly believe tech is reducing costs for consumers.
Voters generally want to see a focus on helping small and medium-sized business, but three-quarters also believe Europe should do more to help European tech companies better compete with U.S. tech companies.

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Q76. Which of the following industries do you think play the most positive role in Europe?
Q77. Which of the following industries do you think play the most negative role in Europe? Industries – Positive or Negative Respondents Feel Most Positive Towards Heath Care And High Tech, Most Negative Towards Financial Services

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Q78. Which of the following industries concerns you the most, and should receive the most attention and oversight in Europe? Which of the following industries concerns you the most? There Isn’t A Single Industry That Dominates Voters’ Concerns

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Q79. Which type of candidate for office in your country would you trust more on economic issues such as creating good jobs? One who says we need to act to require big technology companies like Amazon and Google to do more to protect people’s privacy One who says we should be focused on creating an environment where Europe can create innovative companies like Amazon and Google can help create economic growth Which type of candidate for office in your country would you trust more on economic issues such as creating good jobs? A Majority Of Voters Want Big Tech Companies To Do More To Protect Consumer Privacy

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Q80. Which is closer to your view of the big high-tech companies like Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook? They are mainly a positive force in our society, enhancing our lives with new technologies like smart phones, social networking and online commerce They are too big and powerful and are now mainly a negative force in our society, misusing consumer data and making inequality worse Which is closer to your view of the big high-tech companies like Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook? Liberals Are Most Positive About Tech Role in Society – Nationalists And Far-Left Most Negative

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Q82. Which is closer to your view of large technology companies? New online companies like Uber, Google maps, Amazon shopping and social networks are welcome developments that have improved my life Online commerce and services like Uber, Google maps, Amazon shopping and social networks disrupt traditional industries and violate my privacy Which is closer to your view of large technology companies? But Most Positive About Tech Role In Their Own Lives

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Q83. Which is closer to your view of big technology companies like Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook? They are reducing costs for consumers and providing more choices They are hurting consumers by reducing competition and reducing choices Which is closer to your view of big technology companies like Google, Amazon, Apple and Facebook? …And Even More Believe Tech is Reducing Consumer’s Costs

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Q48. Which do you think the government should focus more on to help the economy in your country?
Q85. Which is closer to your view of large technology companies? Which should the government focus on? Which is closer to your view of large tech companies? Voters Generally Want A Focus On Small And Medium-Sized Business But Most Say Europe Should Help European Tech To Compete

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Climate Change

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Top Takeaways – Climate Change Two-thirds want their country’s government to do more to combat climate change.
Almost universally voters are supportive of E.U. goals on climate change.
More voters are worried that not enough will be done over too much will be done and energy prices will spike.
However, when presented with options voters choose incentives over increased diesel taxes (a majority oppose this idea).

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Thinking about the issue of climate change, which is closest to your view? The government in your country should be doing more to combat climate change The government in your country should be doing less to combat climate change Q71. Thinking about the issue of climate change, which is closest to your view? The government in your country is doing the right thing to combat climate change A Majority Of Voters Regardless Of Ideology Believe Their Government Should Be Doing More On Climate Change

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Thinking about the issue of climate change, which is closest to your view? The government in your country should be doing more to combat climate change The government in your country should be doing less to combat climate change Q71. Thinking about the issue of climate change, which is closest to your view? The government in your country is doing the right thing to combat climate change The Same Is True Geographically, With This Belief Strongest In Italy And Weakest In The Netherlands

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Q72. How much do you support or oppose European Union’s goal of cutting emissions by 80-95% compared with 1990 levels by the year 2050?
Q73. As you may know, the European Union has a set a goal to be completely carbon neutral by 2050, which requires cutting its emissions. How much do you support or oppose this goal? How much do you support or oppose these EU goals? Support Is High For The E.U.’s Goals For Cutting Emissions Total Support

83%

83%

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Q73. As you may know, the European Union has a set a goal to be completely carbon neutral by 2050, which requires cutting its emissions. How much do you support or oppose this goal? As you may know, the European Union has a set a goal to be completely carbon neutral by 2050, which requires cutting its emissions. How much do you support or oppose this goal? Support For This Plan Is Highest In Italy And France

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Q74. Thinking about this goal, which concerns you more? The government in your country will not take enough steps to address climate change and the problem will get worse The government will take too many steps to address climate change and those steps will mean higher energy costs and taxes on people like you Thinking about this goal, which concerns you more? Concerns About Higher Energy Costs And Taxes Are Highest In Sweden And The Netherlands

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Q75. You will now see some policies your government could enact to combat climate change. For each one, please tell us whether you support or oppose your government enacting that policy. Climate Change Policies Total Support
88%
84%
86%
78%
80%
74%
61%
42%
38% Support Is Highest For Increased Use Of Tax Incentives To Make Buildings And Houses More Energy Efficient

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Q75. You will now see some policies your government could enact to combat climate change. For each one, please tell us whether you support or oppose your government enacting that policy. Climate Change Policies: Increase taxes on diesel gasoline Total Support
42%
35%
45%
46%
45%
41% Nationalists Are The Most Opposed To Diesel Taxes

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Nationalists

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Nationalists In many ways they are nihilists who have lost confidence in the future.
They are the most worried about their children.
They are most likely to say Europe is falling behind the United States (and two-thirds have a favorable view of the U.S. – more than other party members. Perhaps they see Trump as a kindred spirit).
Most of them are concerned about immigration. Even more are concerned about taxes.
It is likely that for many (certainly not all), anti-immigration stances are the symptom, not the cause.

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Nationalists Nationalists are not just anti-government:
Many see an appropriate role for the E.U. in limited areas.
Overwhelmingly, they support the E.U. doing more to help tech companies to compete (even more than who say the E.U. should crack down on U.S. tech).
Overwhelmingly, Nationalists support a number of climate change solutions (mainly the use of tax incentives).
42% oppose the pro-Brexit position.

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Appendix

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Health Care And Other Issues

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Q55. How satisfied are you with the health care system in your country? How satisfied are you with the health care system? Satisfaction With Healthcare Generally High But Not In Italy Or Poland

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Q55. How satisfied are you with the health care system in your country? How satisfied are you with the health care system? Green And Social-Democrat Voters Are More Satisfied With Healthcare Than Far-Left, Liberals, Nationalists

84

Q25. Which type of political party to you tend to prefer in elections in your country? Generic Party Identification in Germany In Germany, More Say They Prefer Social Democrats Than Identify With The Actual Social Democrats Party German Party Identification Q14. Which of the following parties do you identify with most?

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Q25. Which type of political party to you tend to prefer in elections in your country? Generic Party Identification in France French Voters’ Generic Party ID Generally Matches Up With Actual Party Identification French Party Identification Q15. Which of the following parties do you identify with most?

86

Q25. Which type of political party to you tend to prefer in elections in your country? Generic Party Identification in Poland Far More Polish Voters Support Nationalist Parties Than Say They Identify With Nationalists Polish Party Identification Q16. Which of the following parties do you identify with most?

87

Q25. Which type of political party to you tend to prefer in elections in your country? Generic Party Identification in Sweden In Sweden A Plurality Identify As Social-Democratic In A Generic And Specific Ballot Swedish Party Identification Q17. Which of the following parties do you identify with most?

88

Q25. Which type of political party to you tend to prefer in elections in your country? Generic Party Identification in the Netherlands More In Netherlands Identify As Social-Democratic Generally Than The Specific Party Netherlands Party Identification Q18. Which of the following parties do you identify with most?

89

Q25. Which type of political party to you tend to prefer in elections in your country? Generic Party Identification in Italy Italians Identify Generally Preferring Social Democrats At A Higher Rate Than Identify With The Democratic Party Italian Party Identification Q19. Which of the following parties do you identify with most?

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