Getting With It: Putting Momentum Behind the U.S.

Transcript:Getting With It: Putting Momentum Behind the U.S.:
Getting With It: Putting Momentum Behind the U.S. - India Nuclear Deal Vijay K. Sazawal, Ph.D. September 24, 2015 School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) Johns Hopkins University Disclaimer: Opinions expressed by the author are solely attributable to him and not to any affiliated company. International Atomic Energy Consulting IAEC Presentation Outline Energy Scenario in India Evolution of Nuclear Energy Program Strategic Autonomy and Indian Exceptionalism U.S. - India Civil Nuclear Agreement Accomplishments and Outstanding Issues Roadmap for Success Concluding Remarks Page 1 International Atomic Energy Consulting Energy Scenario in India India is the 4th largest consumer of energy in the world. Its primary energy consumption grew by 6% in the last five years India is the 3rd largest producer of electricity in the world, using thermal (70%), hydro (15%), renewables (13%) and nuclear (2%) energy sources IMF estimates Indian growth rate in 2015-2016 will be around 7.5%, even as its mainly agrarian economy is slowly transforming to its full industrial potential Climate change and population rise represent a paradigm shift for Indian planners: India is among the top greenhouse gas polluters in the world. By 2020, the “big four” will be China (24%), U.S. (13%), EU (8%) and India (7%) India’s population will exceed China’s in the next decade India is making public commitments to increase its use of clean energies, including nuclear power Page 2 International Atomic Energy Consulting Future Demand for Nuclear Power Market Analysis – IAEA, EIA, WNA, Ux Consulting… Global Growth of nuclear power will be driven by non-OECD countries 2/3 of all new nuclear plants will be built in China, Russia, India and South Korea BP Energy Outlook in 2035: India’s energy production will rise by 117% while consumption will grow by 128% India’s demand growth of 128% outpaces each of the BRIC countries as Russia (+14%), China (+60%) and Brazil (+72%) all expand slowly McKinsey India Report 2014: India will be one of the energy import dependent large economies Nuclear capacity will jump from 5.5GW (2% of total energy supply) to 23GW (7%) by 2030, and to 25% by 2050 Page 3 International Atomic Energy Consulting Future Demand for Nuclear Power India’s nuclear energy program is planning to develop 63GW of nuclear power by 2030 based on filling up the deficit gap between energy supply and demand in 2050 India has 21 reactors in commercial operations, 6 under construction, 4 licensed to begin