India: Domestic Buffer, Not Defiance Buffer from External Headwinds is welcome but far from Sufficient K-shaped and uneven recovery remains a Bug Bear. Inflation May Not be Put to Sleep Yet Structural potential is at least temporarily set
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Presentation Transcript
01
India: Domestic Buffer, Not Defiance Buffer from External Headwinds is welcome but far from Sufficient
K-shaped and uneven recovery remains a Bug Bear.
Inflation May Not be Put to Sleep Yet
Structural potential is at least temporarily set back by twin deficit and crowding out risks;
Macro-stability concerns weigh on RBI .<br>
02
Squaring Rupee Soft Spots with Economic Optimism: 1) “Borrowed” & Uneven Growth… Buffer from External Headwinds is welcome but far from Sufficient to deflect Global Risks<br>
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Squaring Rupee Soft Spots with Economic Optimism: 1) “Borrowed” & Uneven Growth… Unsustainable Credit Binge by “Middle Class” neither sustainable, nor pervasive enough to lift.
Uneven growth/drivers apparent in equities boom, showing concentrated allure and not reflected across all India firms/businesses.<br>
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Squaring Rupee Soft Spots with Economic Optimism: 1) “Borrowed” & Uneven Growth… The inability to build FX reserves amid twin deficits and still imposing financing fiscal drag impede rupee optimism reflecting the euphoria around growth.<br>
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Squaring Rupee Soft Spots with Economic Optimism: 2) Policy/Deficit Constraints<br>
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Squaring Rupee Soft Spots with Economic Optimism: Policy/Deficit Constraints<br>
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Squaring Rupee Soft Spots with Economic Optimism: Deficit Constraints<br>
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Squaring Rupee Soft Spots with Economic Optimism: Deficit Constraints<br>
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Important Information
This publication has been prepared by Mizuho Bank, Ltd. (“Mizuho”) and represents the views of the author. It has not been prepared by an independent research department and it has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements in any country or jurisdiction designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research.