Knowledge As A Service (KaaS) Inventing the Future
Description: Knowledge As A Service (KaaS) Inventing the Future using AI Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University Keynote Talk at the IKCEST Conference 2019 Xian, China Sep 11, 2019 The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Invent It Alan Kay, 1971 The Best
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slide1. Knowledge As A Service (KaaS) Inventing the Future using AI Raj Reddy Carnegie Mellon University Keynote Talk at the IKCEST Conference 2019 Xian, China Sep 11, 2019<br>
slide2. The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Invent It Alan Kay, 1971 “The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Create It” Abraham Lincoln – 1860s https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/09/27/invent-the-future/<br>
slide3. Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels Intelligent Agents as a Part of KaaS Infrastructure<br>
slide4. Flash Forward Video KaaS That We Don’t Yet Know How to Deliver
also accessible from www.rr.cs.cmu.edu/ff.wmv<br>
slide5. Missing Science and Technology<br>
slide6. Attributes of An Intelligent Assistant Process, Index, Store and Retrieve relevant experience
Data Capture, Remember and Learn from experience
System architecture, tools and technologies
Mine, Cluster, and Summarize relevant experience
Share knowledge with a community of coaches
Communicate with agents and human users
Machine and human processable knowledge representation
Learn from own experience and experience of others
Exhibit goal directed behavior
Tolerate error and ambiguity
Operate in real-time
Flash Forward Video<br>
slide7. An Intelligent Assistant must See, Hear and Interact: A Society of Agents with Specialized Functions Kate: Good Morning! Kate here.
MP: Good Morning, Kate. It’s April 1, 1997 and the time is 6:30AM. Kate News Selection reports new trade agreements between Japan and France affects Paris Spring Collection plus 24 other items of interest. Care to browse?
Kate: Umm. Not now. Mail only, please.
FP: Mail serve here. 43 items including 26 unopened for three days, 12 unopened for two days and (interruption: Kate: cancel list) Ummm. Alright! Alright, I’ve been busy.
FP: Canceling. Were there further instructions?
Kate: Yes, uh, did my Snap Catalog arrive?
FP: I understood “catalog”. Snap. Checking.<br>
slide8. An Intelligent Assistant must Be Self Aware: including the hardware, software, and networking environment Kate: Yes, uh, did my Snap catalog arrive?
FP: I understood "catalog". "Snap" -- checking.
Kate: Alright!
MP: Care to view large screen?
MP: Did that mean "yes"?
Kate: Yes. Switch to large screen.<br>
slide9. An Intelligent Assistant must Be Aware of Emotions Kate: Yes, uh, did my Snap catalog arrive?
FP: I understood "catalog". "Snap" -- checking.
Kate: Alright!
MP: Enthusiasm detected. Care to ….<br>
slide10. An Intelligent Assistant must Know what it does not know Kate: Just do it. I'll fight that one later.
MP: Searching. Did not understand last command.
Kate: Do it. Do it. Do it.
MP: Understood.<br>
slide11. An Intelligent Assistant must Learn from Experience MP: Incoming Vid-Phone call. George Smith from Snap Headquarters, priority one. Do you wish to preview Mr. Smith?
Kate: Darn!
MP: You've used that before. Do you care to define it?<br>
slide12. An Intelligent Assistant must Remember and Prompt at the Right Time Kate: Um...Picture Perfect, uh, Fashion Source and Alter Image.
MP: You asked to be reminded. Search on Alter Image databank is very expensive and likely to exceed your monthly online budget. Cost is $485 per thousand-image scan.<br>
slide13. An Intelligent Assistant must Provide the Right Information: in Right Language at the Right Time in the Right level of Granularity MP: James Dean image not available. Copyright Paramount Studios. Last usage granted at $15,000 to Levi Strauss for in-house promotion, one time only.
Kate: Darn!
MP: Alternate suggestions?
Kate: Uh, yeah. Let's see...uh, image search, uh, circa 1959, uh, blue jeans, male, sex appeal.
MP: Searching Nexus.. Access other databanks?<br>
slide14. An Intelligent Assistant must Offer Right Advice in the Right Context MP: As originator of the conference call, do you wish to choose resolution on live video?
Kate: Whatever.
MP: Default settings confirmed. You asked to be reminded, full video from Paris is expensive at $3.55 per minute. A call of less than a minute will exceed your budget of...
Kate: Got it. Um, top resolution on George, face only on Genevieve.
MP: Understood. Conference call open.<br>
slide15. An Intelligent Assistant must also possess several Implied Capabilities A Society of Agents with Specialized Functions
Share knowledge with a community of Assistants
Gnutella-like peer to peer networking
Benefit from what others know or cause to be known
Communicate with other agents and human users
Machine and human processable knowledge representations
Persistent Knowledge Bases
Real Time Response
Mixed Initiative Dialog<br>
slide16. Knowledge as a Service Where are We Relative to Flash Forward Vision of 1990?<br>
slide17. Pessimistic View About AI AI will Replace Humans
AI will Kill Us
AI will Enslave Us
AI will Eliminate Jobs
AI will Lead to Loss of Some Jobs
But More New Jobs will Ultimately be Created<br>
slide18. Optimistic View About AI AI Empower The Poor, The Sick and the Semiliterate People on the Planet
AI will Eliminate Boring Work
AI Give Us Superhuman Capabilities<br>
slide19. Near Term Societal Impact of AI Existing AI Technology Can be Used to Empower the 3 Billion People at The Bottom of the Pyramid<br>
slide20. Bottom of the Pyramid: 3 Billion People 3 Billion People with Incomes of less than $3 a day
The Bottom of The Pyramid is The Largest, But Poorest Socio-economic Group.
Globally that is the 3 billion people who live on less than say $2.50 per day.
Most of Them Are Also Semi-literate, i.e., Cannot Read, Write and/or Understand Any Language
Cannot use Keyboard or Touch based Computing Apps
For a Semi-literate Person, the Only Acceptable Mode of Communication is Speech
Voice Computing a la Amazon Echo and Enhancements is the Key
Personal Assistants that Require Only Speech based Interaction is Essential for Such Populations<br>
slide21. Technology Exists to Create Voice-Only Apps Speech to Speech Translation Demonstrated
Among Some Languages: English, Germana, Chinese, Japanese, Korean,…
By Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Others
BTW, Current Implementations are Based on Incorrect Business Assumptions
Available only for Commercial Languages
Will Never Result in Killer Apps
English to Chinese Speech to Speech Translation Demonstrated in 2012
Text Based “Translate” App of 2016 has to become Speech Based
Languages Supported Based on Commercial Viability
Not Need based
Unlikely to result in Killer App
Apps Tailored to Semi-literate Populations Will Become Killer Apps
1 Minute Learning Time; Two clicks; and Spoken Dialog
All Such Apps Will Require Speech Recognition, Spoken Dialog, and Speech to Speech Translation (No Keyboard or Touch)
Speech to Speech Translation
Entertainment (Movies) and Education (Khan Academy)
Translate Live Dialog
QA Dialog (Siri and Cortana)
eCommerce and eBanking
English Language Learning - Detect Pronunciation Errors<br>
slide22. Applications for the Semiliterate Populations Voice Computing (No Keyboard or Touch) Can Help The Semi-literate to Read Newspapers, Watch Foreign Language Movies, Listen to Khan Academy Lectures, Vote Online and Order Groceries Online
A Mobile App for Entertainment and Education
Dynamic Real-time Translation of a Video Dialog from English to Telugu
Text to Speech App for Newspaper Reading Assistant
Enabling Digital Democracy
Vote Online (Authentication, Authorization and Audit)
Ecommerce and eBanking
Voice Authentication, Authorization and Audit
Learning Without a Teacher
Tutor for Listening and Speaking English
Illiterate Populations Will be the Biggest Source of Customers for Speech Based Apps in the Future<br>
slide23. Typical Apps for the Semi-literate: NextGen Siri and Alexa An Intelligent Agent That Anticipates What You Want To Do And Helps You To Do It Using Local Language and Clarification Dialog
Entertainment and Education: Streaming Video Translation
Alexa play Hamlet (BBC Shakespeare)
Reading Newspapers: Text to Speech Translation and/or Synthesis
Alexa read China Daily
Buying and Selling: Voice Dialog Management
Alexa order usual brand Rice, Meat and Vegetables
Communication: Voice and/or Video Email, Chat
Alexa call my Grandson in Shanghai
Banking: Monitor Bank account, Pay Bills
Alexa charge my mobile device with 1000 rupees
Online Voting
Voice Dialog to enable the Authorization, Authentication and Audit
Semi-literate Populations Will be the Biggest Source of Customers for Speech Based Apps in the Future
Resulting Doubling of Net Users and Quadrupling of Economic Activity<br>
slide24. AI : Near term Future (2 to 3 Years) Cognition Amplifiers That Enhance Human Capabilities Do Tasks Faster and with Less Effort<br>
slide25. 25 Cognition Amplifiers in Service of Society A Cognition Amplifier (COG) is an Intelligent Agent that anticipates what you want to do and helps you to do it
Cognition Amplifiers Enhance Human Capabilities
Do Tasks Faster and with Less Effort
A Cognition Amplifier (COG) is a
Personal
Enduring
Autonomic Intelligent Agent that
Anticipates what you want to do and does it
Always On, Always Working, Always Learning<br>
slide26. Examples of COGs in Service of Society COGs personalized and mass customized agents as part of Knowledge as a Service (KaaS) may be Used by Everyone on the Planet for tasks such as
Buying and selling: Transact with multiple providers
Email: Filter spam, understand and respond to actionable email
News: Based on topic preferences, novelty, collaborative filtering
Banking: Monitor bank account, Credit Cards, Pay Bills
Travel: Flights, hotel, schedule disruptions, cancellations
Each Person May Have Thousands of Cogs as Personal Assistants<br>
slide27. AI: Longer Term Future (5 to 10 Years) Guardian Angels That Enable Humans to Do Tasks They Cannot Do Today. Super-Human AI?<br>
slide28. 28 Guardian Angels in Service of Society Discover and Warn Humans About Unanticipated Events Impacting Safety, Security, and Happiness
Guardian Angels Enable Humans to Do Tasks They Cannot Now Do.
Super-Human AI?
A Guardian Angel (GAT) is a
Personal
Enduring
Autonomic
Intelligent Agent
Always On, Always Working, Always Learning<br>
slide29. GATs in Service of Society GATs are personalized and mass customized agents as part of KaaS for
Just-in-Time Warnings: Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Extreme Weather
Act as Coach in Health and Education Matters
Accident Alerts and Rerouting; Transport Strikes
Scarcity of Essential Resources: Food, Energy, Water etc.
Assume Everyone on the Planet has Personalized Guardian Angels (GATs)<br>
slide30. Personalization and Customization of Guardian Angels Cloud Based Guardian Angel Platform Linked to User Smart Phone Family of Personalized Guardian Angels
Subscribe to Local, National and Global Sources and Act on Relevant Information Learning
Learn by Watching
Learn by being taught
Learn by doing
Learn by asking others
Learn by discovery Security
Multimodal authentication
Continuous authentication
Encryption Big Data Management
Process, index, story and retrieve data
Mine, Cluster, and Summarize relevant experience Dialog
With humans
With other agents Self Healing
Detect errors
Resolve errors Power Mgmt Activity Monitoring Multi-Sensor Integration Autonomic Systems Etc.<br>
slide31. Knowledge Source Publishers
Global, National and Local
Knowledge Source Distributors
ReTweet Model
Global DataBase of Humankind KaaS Publish/Subscribe Eco System of
Guardian Angel Global Infrastructure Platform Guardian Angels Activity Monitoring and Intention Awareness User Cloud Based
User Infrastructure
Platform<br>
slide32. In Conclusion… AI Advances Will Bring Some Predictable and some Unxpected Breakthroughs
Universal Communicators
With Anyone Anywhere at Anytime
Cognition Amplifiers
Do a Day’s Work in an Hour
Guardian Angels
Do Things That You Don’t Know How to Do
IKCEST Can Invent the Future Using AI
Create a Fully Connected Society
Subsidized Smart Phones and Gigabit Bandwidth
AI Literacy For All
Create Short Duration AI Training Programs
Project Oriented
Team Based
Awareness of Tools and Techniques
Especially 10 to 40 Year Olds
Expand eCommerce Options thru Africa, Asia and Pacific
PPP Mode Investments with Chinese Majors IT Companies
Invest in Multi Lingual Communication Technology<br>
slide2. The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Invent It Alan Kay, 1971 “The Best Way to Predict the Future is to Create It” Abraham Lincoln – 1860s https://quoteinvestigator.com/2012/09/27/invent-the-future/<br>
slide3. Cognition Amplifiers and Guardian Angels Intelligent Agents as a Part of KaaS Infrastructure<br>
slide4. Flash Forward Video KaaS That We Don’t Yet Know How to Deliver
also accessible from www.rr.cs.cmu.edu/ff.wmv<br>
slide5. Missing Science and Technology<br>
slide6. Attributes of An Intelligent Assistant Process, Index, Store and Retrieve relevant experience
Data Capture, Remember and Learn from experience
System architecture, tools and technologies
Mine, Cluster, and Summarize relevant experience
Share knowledge with a community of coaches
Communicate with agents and human users
Machine and human processable knowledge representation
Learn from own experience and experience of others
Exhibit goal directed behavior
Tolerate error and ambiguity
Operate in real-time
Flash Forward Video<br>
slide7. An Intelligent Assistant must See, Hear and Interact: A Society of Agents with Specialized Functions Kate: Good Morning! Kate here.
MP: Good Morning, Kate. It’s April 1, 1997 and the time is 6:30AM. Kate News Selection reports new trade agreements between Japan and France affects Paris Spring Collection plus 24 other items of interest. Care to browse?
Kate: Umm. Not now. Mail only, please.
FP: Mail serve here. 43 items including 26 unopened for three days, 12 unopened for two days and (interruption: Kate: cancel list) Ummm. Alright! Alright, I’ve been busy.
FP: Canceling. Were there further instructions?
Kate: Yes, uh, did my Snap Catalog arrive?
FP: I understood “catalog”. Snap. Checking.<br>
slide8. An Intelligent Assistant must Be Self Aware: including the hardware, software, and networking environment Kate: Yes, uh, did my Snap catalog arrive?
FP: I understood "catalog". "Snap" -- checking.
Kate: Alright!
MP: Care to view large screen?
MP: Did that mean "yes"?
Kate: Yes. Switch to large screen.<br>
slide9. An Intelligent Assistant must Be Aware of Emotions Kate: Yes, uh, did my Snap catalog arrive?
FP: I understood "catalog". "Snap" -- checking.
Kate: Alright!
MP: Enthusiasm detected. Care to ….<br>
slide10. An Intelligent Assistant must Know what it does not know Kate: Just do it. I'll fight that one later.
MP: Searching. Did not understand last command.
Kate: Do it. Do it. Do it.
MP: Understood.<br>
slide11. An Intelligent Assistant must Learn from Experience MP: Incoming Vid-Phone call. George Smith from Snap Headquarters, priority one. Do you wish to preview Mr. Smith?
Kate: Darn!
MP: You've used that before. Do you care to define it?<br>
slide12. An Intelligent Assistant must Remember and Prompt at the Right Time Kate: Um...Picture Perfect, uh, Fashion Source and Alter Image.
MP: You asked to be reminded. Search on Alter Image databank is very expensive and likely to exceed your monthly online budget. Cost is $485 per thousand-image scan.<br>
slide13. An Intelligent Assistant must Provide the Right Information: in Right Language at the Right Time in the Right level of Granularity MP: James Dean image not available. Copyright Paramount Studios. Last usage granted at $15,000 to Levi Strauss for in-house promotion, one time only.
Kate: Darn!
MP: Alternate suggestions?
Kate: Uh, yeah. Let's see...uh, image search, uh, circa 1959, uh, blue jeans, male, sex appeal.
MP: Searching Nexus.. Access other databanks?<br>
slide14. An Intelligent Assistant must Offer Right Advice in the Right Context MP: As originator of the conference call, do you wish to choose resolution on live video?
Kate: Whatever.
MP: Default settings confirmed. You asked to be reminded, full video from Paris is expensive at $3.55 per minute. A call of less than a minute will exceed your budget of...
Kate: Got it. Um, top resolution on George, face only on Genevieve.
MP: Understood. Conference call open.<br>
slide15. An Intelligent Assistant must also possess several Implied Capabilities A Society of Agents with Specialized Functions
Share knowledge with a community of Assistants
Gnutella-like peer to peer networking
Benefit from what others know or cause to be known
Communicate with other agents and human users
Machine and human processable knowledge representations
Persistent Knowledge Bases
Real Time Response
Mixed Initiative Dialog<br>
slide16. Knowledge as a Service Where are We Relative to Flash Forward Vision of 1990?<br>
slide17. Pessimistic View About AI AI will Replace Humans
AI will Kill Us
AI will Enslave Us
AI will Eliminate Jobs
AI will Lead to Loss of Some Jobs
But More New Jobs will Ultimately be Created<br>
slide18. Optimistic View About AI AI Empower The Poor, The Sick and the Semiliterate People on the Planet
AI will Eliminate Boring Work
AI Give Us Superhuman Capabilities<br>
slide19. Near Term Societal Impact of AI Existing AI Technology Can be Used to Empower the 3 Billion People at The Bottom of the Pyramid<br>
slide20. Bottom of the Pyramid: 3 Billion People 3 Billion People with Incomes of less than $3 a day
The Bottom of The Pyramid is The Largest, But Poorest Socio-economic Group.
Globally that is the 3 billion people who live on less than say $2.50 per day.
Most of Them Are Also Semi-literate, i.e., Cannot Read, Write and/or Understand Any Language
Cannot use Keyboard or Touch based Computing Apps
For a Semi-literate Person, the Only Acceptable Mode of Communication is Speech
Voice Computing a la Amazon Echo and Enhancements is the Key
Personal Assistants that Require Only Speech based Interaction is Essential for Such Populations<br>
slide21. Technology Exists to Create Voice-Only Apps Speech to Speech Translation Demonstrated
Among Some Languages: English, Germana, Chinese, Japanese, Korean,…
By Google, Microsoft, Facebook and Others
BTW, Current Implementations are Based on Incorrect Business Assumptions
Available only for Commercial Languages
Will Never Result in Killer Apps
English to Chinese Speech to Speech Translation Demonstrated in 2012
Text Based “Translate” App of 2016 has to become Speech Based
Languages Supported Based on Commercial Viability
Not Need based
Unlikely to result in Killer App
Apps Tailored to Semi-literate Populations Will Become Killer Apps
1 Minute Learning Time; Two clicks; and Spoken Dialog
All Such Apps Will Require Speech Recognition, Spoken Dialog, and Speech to Speech Translation (No Keyboard or Touch)
Speech to Speech Translation
Entertainment (Movies) and Education (Khan Academy)
Translate Live Dialog
QA Dialog (Siri and Cortana)
eCommerce and eBanking
English Language Learning - Detect Pronunciation Errors<br>
slide22. Applications for the Semiliterate Populations Voice Computing (No Keyboard or Touch) Can Help The Semi-literate to Read Newspapers, Watch Foreign Language Movies, Listen to Khan Academy Lectures, Vote Online and Order Groceries Online
A Mobile App for Entertainment and Education
Dynamic Real-time Translation of a Video Dialog from English to Telugu
Text to Speech App for Newspaper Reading Assistant
Enabling Digital Democracy
Vote Online (Authentication, Authorization and Audit)
Ecommerce and eBanking
Voice Authentication, Authorization and Audit
Learning Without a Teacher
Tutor for Listening and Speaking English
Illiterate Populations Will be the Biggest Source of Customers for Speech Based Apps in the Future<br>
slide23. Typical Apps for the Semi-literate: NextGen Siri and Alexa An Intelligent Agent That Anticipates What You Want To Do And Helps You To Do It Using Local Language and Clarification Dialog
Entertainment and Education: Streaming Video Translation
Alexa play Hamlet (BBC Shakespeare)
Reading Newspapers: Text to Speech Translation and/or Synthesis
Alexa read China Daily
Buying and Selling: Voice Dialog Management
Alexa order usual brand Rice, Meat and Vegetables
Communication: Voice and/or Video Email, Chat
Alexa call my Grandson in Shanghai
Banking: Monitor Bank account, Pay Bills
Alexa charge my mobile device with 1000 rupees
Online Voting
Voice Dialog to enable the Authorization, Authentication and Audit
Semi-literate Populations Will be the Biggest Source of Customers for Speech Based Apps in the Future
Resulting Doubling of Net Users and Quadrupling of Economic Activity<br>
slide24. AI : Near term Future (2 to 3 Years) Cognition Amplifiers That Enhance Human Capabilities Do Tasks Faster and with Less Effort<br>
slide25. 25 Cognition Amplifiers in Service of Society A Cognition Amplifier (COG) is an Intelligent Agent that anticipates what you want to do and helps you to do it
Cognition Amplifiers Enhance Human Capabilities
Do Tasks Faster and with Less Effort
A Cognition Amplifier (COG) is a
Personal
Enduring
Autonomic Intelligent Agent that
Anticipates what you want to do and does it
Always On, Always Working, Always Learning<br>
slide26. Examples of COGs in Service of Society COGs personalized and mass customized agents as part of Knowledge as a Service (KaaS) may be Used by Everyone on the Planet for tasks such as
Buying and selling: Transact with multiple providers
Email: Filter spam, understand and respond to actionable email
News: Based on topic preferences, novelty, collaborative filtering
Banking: Monitor bank account, Credit Cards, Pay Bills
Travel: Flights, hotel, schedule disruptions, cancellations
Each Person May Have Thousands of Cogs as Personal Assistants<br>
slide27. AI: Longer Term Future (5 to 10 Years) Guardian Angels That Enable Humans to Do Tasks They Cannot Do Today. Super-Human AI?<br>
slide28. 28 Guardian Angels in Service of Society Discover and Warn Humans About Unanticipated Events Impacting Safety, Security, and Happiness
Guardian Angels Enable Humans to Do Tasks They Cannot Now Do.
Super-Human AI?
A Guardian Angel (GAT) is a
Personal
Enduring
Autonomic
Intelligent Agent
Always On, Always Working, Always Learning<br>
slide29. GATs in Service of Society GATs are personalized and mass customized agents as part of KaaS for
Just-in-Time Warnings: Hurricanes, Earthquakes, Extreme Weather
Act as Coach in Health and Education Matters
Accident Alerts and Rerouting; Transport Strikes
Scarcity of Essential Resources: Food, Energy, Water etc.
Assume Everyone on the Planet has Personalized Guardian Angels (GATs)<br>
slide30. Personalization and Customization of Guardian Angels Cloud Based Guardian Angel Platform Linked to User Smart Phone Family of Personalized Guardian Angels
Subscribe to Local, National and Global Sources and Act on Relevant Information Learning
Learn by Watching
Learn by being taught
Learn by doing
Learn by asking others
Learn by discovery Security
Multimodal authentication
Continuous authentication
Encryption Big Data Management
Process, index, story and retrieve data
Mine, Cluster, and Summarize relevant experience Dialog
With humans
With other agents Self Healing
Detect errors
Resolve errors Power Mgmt Activity Monitoring Multi-Sensor Integration Autonomic Systems Etc.<br>
slide31. Knowledge Source Publishers
Global, National and Local
Knowledge Source Distributors
ReTweet Model
Global DataBase of Humankind KaaS Publish/Subscribe Eco System of
Guardian Angel Global Infrastructure Platform Guardian Angels Activity Monitoring and Intention Awareness User Cloud Based
User Infrastructure
Platform<br>
slide32. In Conclusion… AI Advances Will Bring Some Predictable and some Unxpected Breakthroughs
Universal Communicators
With Anyone Anywhere at Anytime
Cognition Amplifiers
Do a Day’s Work in an Hour
Guardian Angels
Do Things That You Don’t Know How to Do
IKCEST Can Invent the Future Using AI
Create a Fully Connected Society
Subsidized Smart Phones and Gigabit Bandwidth
AI Literacy For All
Create Short Duration AI Training Programs
Project Oriented
Team Based
Awareness of Tools and Techniques
Especially 10 to 40 Year Olds
Expand eCommerce Options thru Africa, Asia and Pacific
PPP Mode Investments with Chinese Majors IT Companies
Invest in Multi Lingual Communication Technology<br>