Migration from Ukraine to Poland Past and present

Transcript:Migration from Ukraine to Poland Past and present:
Migration from Ukraine to Poland Past and present Paweł Kaczmarczyk Centre of Migration Research University of Warsaw Meeting of the Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference Wednesday, 19th April 2022 1 What I will talk about… Migration from Poland to Ukraine Context Process Outlook 2 First residence permits issued in the EU countries, 2008-2018 Context: Poland as a New Immigrant Destination? Source: EUROSTAT Key drivers: Supply side – war in the Eastern part of Ukraine  migration pressure Demand side – labour market needs and the role of „simplified procedure” Immigrants residing in Poland (18 years and older, 2016  as for end of Dec.) Context: Poland as a New Immigrant Destination Source: CSO 2018 744 thousand Males (67%) Productive age (97%) Ukrainians (61%) 2015: 284 thousand 2016: 455 thousand 70% up to 12 months 36% with tertiary education Warsaw (22%) End of 2019: 2.2 milion of immigrants (CSO 2020) End of 2020: 5-7% decline (MAC) 5 Source: Szulecka 2018 Context: legal paths to employment in Poland 6 Source: Wiatrów 2022 Context: labour immigration to Poland Main forms of employment in Poland, 2018-2021 Seasonal patterns of employment, 2018-2021 Ukraine: Declarations: 88% Work permits: 71% Seasonal work permits: 98% 7 Source: Górny & Śleszyński 2019 Context: labour immigration to Poland Context: attitudes towards immigrants - immigration as a threat? Source: Own elaboration based on the ESS data 8 Conclusions: Drop in negative assessment of immigration since 2016 (exception: Germany  role of refugee / migration crisis?) In most cases symbolic (cultural) threat not as strong as an economic one „Outliers”: IT, ES, plus CEE (CZ, HU, SK) Context: attitudes towards immigrants - hostility towards newcomers Source: Own elaboration based on the ESS data Conclusions cont.: Different trends in hostility towards newcomers in various parts of the EU particularly HU, CZ, PL, SK, IT Germany as a very interesting case  relatively high acceptance despite enourmous intake of immigrants 9 How to explain differences in hostility towards newcomers? Source: Own elaboration based on the ESS data Poland – key origin countries (CSO 2018): Ukraine (450 thous.) EU countries (50 thous.) Belarus (21 thous.) Germany – key origin countries (OECD 2019): Poland (13%) Turkey (10%) Russia (8%) (new flows: RO, PL, BG) Italy – key origin countries (OECD 2019): Romania (17%) Albania (8%) Morocco (7%) (new flows: RO, NI, MO) 10 How to explain differences in attitudes towards immigrants? (the case of Poland) Source: Own