New Data for Analyzing Global Value Chains Tom
Description: New Data for Analyzing Global Value Chains Tom Howells December 11, 2020 FESAC Overview Motivation International Engagement Single-Country Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Statistics Extensions 1242020 2 Motivation TiVA statistics provide
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slide1. New Data for Analyzing Global Value Chains Tom Howells December 11, 2020 FESAC<br>
slide2. Overview Motivation
International Engagement
Single-Country Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Statistics
Extensions 12/4/2020 2<br>
slide3. Motivation TiVA statistics provide unique insights:
How much does the U.S. export?
How much do we import from China?
Where are the electronics that we consume produced? 12/4/2020 3<br>
slide4. Motivation 12/4/2020 4 United States: 29% Japan: 29% Taiwan: 20% Europe/Korea/Other: 19% China: 4% Dedrick, Linden, and Kraemer<br>
slide5. International Engagement to Support Global Value Chain Statistics OECD-WTO
Ongoing support for world TiVA database
Engagement with Expert Group on Extended Supply-Use Tables
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Development of APEC regional TiVA statistics
Regional capacity building efforts
North America
Collaboration to develop a North America regional TiVA database
Bilateral trade asymmetries 12/4/2020 5<br>
slide6. New BEA/NSF Collaboration BEA engaged in a new collaboration with the National Science Foundation (NSF)
Goal: Better understanding of the role of science & technology (S&T) industries in domestic and global supply chains
Approach: BEA is working with NSF’s National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) to develop U.S. TiVA statistics in a single-country framework and to expand the coverage of S&T industries in BEA’s industry statistics 12/4/2020 6<br>
slide7. Multi-country TiVA framework Advantages of the multi-country framework:
Traces supply chain through direct and indirect U.S. trade partners
Captures exported U.S. value that “returns home” embedded in U.S. imports
Eliminates double counting of intermediate inputs that cross borders multiple times
Disadvantages of the multi-country framework:
High level of international coordination required
Timeliness limited by statistical schedules in other countries
Level of detail limited by data availability in other countries
Changes to U.S. data required to reconcile discrepancies with other countries 12/4/2020 7<br>
slide8. Single-Country TiVA Framework Key goal of BEA/NSF collaboration is to explore development of TiVA statistics in a single-country framework:
Rely primarily on the U.S. supply-use tables
No direct use of a multi-country supply-use framework
By limiting reliance on a multi-country framework:
Greater timeliness
Higher level of detail
Greater consistency with official statistics 12/4/2020 8<br>
slide9. Value Chain: Gasoline and Other Motor Fuel (Billions of Current Dollars) 12/4/2020 9 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Imports Domestic Production<br>
slide10. Value Chain: Gasoline and Other Motor Fuel (Billions of Current Dollars) 12/4/2020 10 Direct Imports Government Embedded Imports Goods Wholesale, Retail, Transportation Other Services U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Domestic Production<br>
slide11. Value Chain: Gasoline and Other Motor Fuel (Billions of Current Dollars) 12/4/2020 11 Direct Imports Government Embedded Imports Goods Other Services Domestic Value U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Domestic Production Wholesale, Retail, Transportation<br>
slide12. Extensions: Bilateral Trade Incorporate bilateral trade data into single-country TiVA framework
Show breakout of direct and indirect imports by partner
Decomposition into major trading partners: Canada, Mexico, China, Europe, Other 12/4/2020 12 Imports U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Value Chain: Gasoline and Other Motor Fuel<br>
slide13. 12/4/2020 13 Expanded Trade in Services Categories in 2020 Expanded major service categories from 9 to 12
Expanded service types from 49 to 67 (not including aggregates)
Introduced FISIM and market making services to address coverage gaps in financial services
Improved coverage of certain service categories
Intellectual property services, e.g. by distinguishing charges for the use, reproduction and/or distribution, and outright sales of intellectual property
Improved categorization of audiovisual services by moving it to a new personal, cultural, and recreational services category<br>
slide14. Expanded Annual Geography in 2016 12/4/2020 14 More than doubled annual geographic detail from 33 to 72 countries<br>
slide15. Extensions: Expanded Detail As part of BEA/NSF agreement, expand industry detail beyond current 71-industry detail to better highlight R&D and science & technology industries
Moving toward annual publication of benchmark-level detail (roughly 400 industries and commodities)
Expanded GDP by industry statistics published annually at 138-industry level beginning in 2018 12/4/2020 15<br>
slide16. Extensions: Extended Supply-Use Tables 12/4/2020 16 BEA SUTs based mainly on
Economic Census data
Census and BEA trade data
BEA AMNE data for MNE classification
Microdata linking combines datasets and allows a breakdown by ownership and multinational status:
Domestic MNEs (U.S. Parents)
Foreign MNEs (U.S. Affiliates)
Non MNEs<br>
slide17. Extensions: Other Extensions 12/4/2020 17 Other possible extensions:
Decomposition of value added into capital and labor services
Decomposition of capital services by type of asset
Real TiVA statistics
Hybrid model<br>
slide18. Questions 12/4/2020 18 Which research paths are most interesting and most beneficial for data users, policymakers, etc.?
How should BEA package these statistics to make the data most useful for users?
What are your priorities for new and expanded statistics to fill data gaps on international trade?<br>
slide19. Contact Information 12/4/2020 19 Tom Howells
thomas.howells@bea.gov
301.278.9586<br>
slide2. Overview Motivation
International Engagement
Single-Country Trade in Value Added (TiVA) Statistics
Extensions 12/4/2020 2<br>
slide3. Motivation TiVA statistics provide unique insights:
How much does the U.S. export?
How much do we import from China?
Where are the electronics that we consume produced? 12/4/2020 3<br>
slide4. Motivation 12/4/2020 4 United States: 29% Japan: 29% Taiwan: 20% Europe/Korea/Other: 19% China: 4% Dedrick, Linden, and Kraemer<br>
slide5. International Engagement to Support Global Value Chain Statistics OECD-WTO
Ongoing support for world TiVA database
Engagement with Expert Group on Extended Supply-Use Tables
Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Development of APEC regional TiVA statistics
Regional capacity building efforts
North America
Collaboration to develop a North America regional TiVA database
Bilateral trade asymmetries 12/4/2020 5<br>
slide6. New BEA/NSF Collaboration BEA engaged in a new collaboration with the National Science Foundation (NSF)
Goal: Better understanding of the role of science & technology (S&T) industries in domestic and global supply chains
Approach: BEA is working with NSF’s National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics (NCSES) to develop U.S. TiVA statistics in a single-country framework and to expand the coverage of S&T industries in BEA’s industry statistics 12/4/2020 6<br>
slide7. Multi-country TiVA framework Advantages of the multi-country framework:
Traces supply chain through direct and indirect U.S. trade partners
Captures exported U.S. value that “returns home” embedded in U.S. imports
Eliminates double counting of intermediate inputs that cross borders multiple times
Disadvantages of the multi-country framework:
High level of international coordination required
Timeliness limited by statistical schedules in other countries
Level of detail limited by data availability in other countries
Changes to U.S. data required to reconcile discrepancies with other countries 12/4/2020 7<br>
slide8. Single-Country TiVA Framework Key goal of BEA/NSF collaboration is to explore development of TiVA statistics in a single-country framework:
Rely primarily on the U.S. supply-use tables
No direct use of a multi-country supply-use framework
By limiting reliance on a multi-country framework:
Greater timeliness
Higher level of detail
Greater consistency with official statistics 12/4/2020 8<br>
slide9. Value Chain: Gasoline and Other Motor Fuel (Billions of Current Dollars) 12/4/2020 9 U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Imports Domestic Production<br>
slide10. Value Chain: Gasoline and Other Motor Fuel (Billions of Current Dollars) 12/4/2020 10 Direct Imports Government Embedded Imports Goods Wholesale, Retail, Transportation Other Services U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Domestic Production<br>
slide11. Value Chain: Gasoline and Other Motor Fuel (Billions of Current Dollars) 12/4/2020 11 Direct Imports Government Embedded Imports Goods Other Services Domestic Value U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Domestic Production Wholesale, Retail, Transportation<br>
slide12. Extensions: Bilateral Trade Incorporate bilateral trade data into single-country TiVA framework
Show breakout of direct and indirect imports by partner
Decomposition into major trading partners: Canada, Mexico, China, Europe, Other 12/4/2020 12 Imports U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Value Chain: Gasoline and Other Motor Fuel<br>
slide13. 12/4/2020 13 Expanded Trade in Services Categories in 2020 Expanded major service categories from 9 to 12
Expanded service types from 49 to 67 (not including aggregates)
Introduced FISIM and market making services to address coverage gaps in financial services
Improved coverage of certain service categories
Intellectual property services, e.g. by distinguishing charges for the use, reproduction and/or distribution, and outright sales of intellectual property
Improved categorization of audiovisual services by moving it to a new personal, cultural, and recreational services category<br>
slide14. Expanded Annual Geography in 2016 12/4/2020 14 More than doubled annual geographic detail from 33 to 72 countries<br>
slide15. Extensions: Expanded Detail As part of BEA/NSF agreement, expand industry detail beyond current 71-industry detail to better highlight R&D and science & technology industries
Moving toward annual publication of benchmark-level detail (roughly 400 industries and commodities)
Expanded GDP by industry statistics published annually at 138-industry level beginning in 2018 12/4/2020 15<br>
slide16. Extensions: Extended Supply-Use Tables 12/4/2020 16 BEA SUTs based mainly on
Economic Census data
Census and BEA trade data
BEA AMNE data for MNE classification
Microdata linking combines datasets and allows a breakdown by ownership and multinational status:
Domestic MNEs (U.S. Parents)
Foreign MNEs (U.S. Affiliates)
Non MNEs<br>
slide17. Extensions: Other Extensions 12/4/2020 17 Other possible extensions:
Decomposition of value added into capital and labor services
Decomposition of capital services by type of asset
Real TiVA statistics
Hybrid model<br>
slide18. Questions 12/4/2020 18 Which research paths are most interesting and most beneficial for data users, policymakers, etc.?
How should BEA package these statistics to make the data most useful for users?
What are your priorities for new and expanded statistics to fill data gaps on international trade?<br>
slide19. Contact Information 12/4/2020 19 Tom Howells
thomas.howells@bea.gov
301.278.9586<br>