Research on Climate Change at CREATE Adam Rose

Transcript:Research on Climate Change at CREATE Adam Rose:
Research on Climate Change at CREATE Adam Rose CREATE Fellows, Post-Docs, Grad Students April 19, 2024 Presentation Overview Example of Recent Case Study: “Regional and National Supply-Chain Impacts of Mississippi River Agricultural Shipments Disrupted by Climate Change” Z. Chen (OSU), A. Rose (USC), F. Roberts (Rutgers), Andrew Tucci (USCG, ret.) Funded by CAOE contract -- Modeling the Impact of Complex, Multi-Vector (Compound/Cascading) Disruptions to the Marine Transportation System Overview of Previous CREATE Research on Climate Change – Macroeconomic impacts of climate change – Resilience – Mitigation of drivers – Mitigation of climate impacts (Adaptation) – Aggregate vs. distributional impacts (Equity, Justice) – Policy instrument design Background for Mississippi River Study Mississippi River Vital to the US economy – transport networks inherently vulnerable (nodes & links) – highly vulnerable to climate change (record drought, heat) Prone to Compound Disasters – several happening at once – concern over negative synergies (non-linearities) All major disasters are Cascading – all have ripple (multiplier) effects beyond the immediate site – transmitted across sectors, supply-chains, socioeconomic groups, regions (longstanding research area of CREATE – economy-wide impacts) Climate Change Complex Disasters Mississippi Scenario (focus on fertilizer & crop shipments) 1. Drought (lower water levels => less weight per barge) 2. Lock/Dam Failure (congestion => delays) 3. Import Disruption (outright decrease in supply) Shocks to the transportation & agricultural systems – Barge rates – Barge labor productivity – Direct reduction in supply River Gage Height & Barge Shipping Rate Economic Modeling Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis – Characterizes the economy as a set of interrelated supply chains – Captures behavioral responses in the context of workings of markets – SOA approach to macroeconomic consequence analysis TERM Multi-Regional Model – 5 Upper Mississippi River States and the rest of the U.S. – 39 sectors with fine granulation for agriculture (Also build or adapt other CGE models for CREATE research) – USCGE and Southern California Models – Peter Dixon’s USAGE Model & International TERM Model – Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Modeling System Fertilizer Shipment Impacts Beef Price increase = .17 percentage points Consumer Price Index increase = .26 percentage points CREATE Research on Climate Change Increasing evidence and awareness that climate change spawns short-term & long-term disasters (hence now under the purview of DHS and COEs) Many CREATE researchers work in fields closely related to climate change (e.g., energy, environment, eng, risk analysis) – research is generally applicable to