Research on Climate Change at CREATE Adam Rose
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Research on Climate Change at CREATE Adam Rose CREATE Fellows, Post-Docs, Grad Students April 19, 2024 Presentation Overview Example of Recent Case Study: Regional and National Supply-Chain Impacts of Mississippi River Agricultural
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01
Research on Climate Change at CREATE Adam Rose
CREATE Fellows, Post-Docs, Grad Students
April 19, 2024<br>
CREATE Fellows, Post-Docs, Grad Students
April 19, 2024<br>
02
Presentation Overview Example of Recent Case Study:
“Regional and National Supply-Chain Impacts of Mississippi River
Agricultural Shipments Disrupted by Climate Change”
Z. Chen (OSU), A. Rose (USC), F. Roberts (Rutgers), Andrew Tucci (USCG, ret.)
Funded by CAOE contract -- Modeling the Impact of Complex, Multi-Vector
(Compound/Cascading) Disruptions to the Marine Transportation System
Overview of Previous CREATE Research on Climate Change
– Macroeconomic impacts of climate change
– Resilience
– Mitigation of drivers
– Mitigation of climate impacts (Adaptation)
– Aggregate vs. distributional impacts (Equity, Justice)
– Policy instrument design<br>
“Regional and National Supply-Chain Impacts of Mississippi River
Agricultural Shipments Disrupted by Climate Change”
Z. Chen (OSU), A. Rose (USC), F. Roberts (Rutgers), Andrew Tucci (USCG, ret.)
Funded by CAOE contract -- Modeling the Impact of Complex, Multi-Vector
(Compound/Cascading) Disruptions to the Marine Transportation System
Overview of Previous CREATE Research on Climate Change
– Macroeconomic impacts of climate change
– Resilience
– Mitigation of drivers
– Mitigation of climate impacts (Adaptation)
– Aggregate vs. distributional impacts (Equity, Justice)
– Policy instrument design<br>
03
Background for Mississippi River Study Mississippi River Vital to the US economy
– transport networks inherently vulnerable (nodes & links)
– highly vulnerable to climate change (record drought, heat)
Prone to Compound Disasters
– several happening at once
– concern over negative synergies (non-linearities)
All major disasters are Cascading
– all have ripple (multiplier) effects beyond the immediate site
– transmitted across sectors, supply-chains, socioeconomic groups, regions
(longstanding research area of CREATE – economy-wide impacts)<br>
– transport networks inherently vulnerable (nodes & links)
– highly vulnerable to climate change (record drought, heat)
Prone to Compound Disasters
– several happening at once
– concern over negative synergies (non-linearities)
All major disasters are Cascading
– all have ripple (multiplier) effects beyond the immediate site
– transmitted across sectors, supply-chains, socioeconomic groups, regions
(longstanding research area of CREATE – economy-wide impacts)<br>
04
Climate Change Complex Disasters Mississippi Scenario (focus on fertilizer & crop shipments)
1. Drought (lower water levels => less weight per barge)
2. Lock/Dam Failure (congestion => delays)
3. Import Disruption (outright decrease in supply)
Shocks to the transportation & agricultural systems
– Barge rates
– Barge labor productivity
– Direct reduction in supply<br>
1. Drought (lower water levels => less weight per barge)
2. Lock/Dam Failure (congestion => delays)
3. Import Disruption (outright decrease in supply)
Shocks to the transportation & agricultural systems
– Barge rates
– Barge labor productivity
– Direct reduction in supply<br>
05
River Gage Height & Barge Shipping Rate<br>
06
Economic Modeling Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Analysis
– Characterizes the economy as a set of interrelated supply chains
– Captures behavioral responses in the context of workings of markets
– SOA approach to macroeconomic consequence analysis
TERM Multi-Regional Model
– 5 Upper Mississippi River States and the rest of the U.S.
– 39 sectors with fine granulation for agriculture
(Also build or adapt other CGE models for CREATE research)
– USCGE and Southern California Models
– Peter Dixon’s USAGE Model & International TERM Model
– Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Modeling System<br>
– Characterizes the economy as a set of interrelated supply chains
– Captures behavioral responses in the context of workings of markets
– SOA approach to macroeconomic consequence analysis
TERM Multi-Regional Model
– 5 Upper Mississippi River States and the rest of the U.S.
– 39 sectors with fine granulation for agriculture
(Also build or adapt other CGE models for CREATE research)
– USCGE and Southern California Models
– Peter Dixon’s USAGE Model & International TERM Model
– Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Modeling System<br>
07
Fertilizer Shipment Impacts Beef Price increase = .17 percentage points
Consumer Price Index increase = .26 percentage points<br>
Consumer Price Index increase = .26 percentage points<br>
08
CREATE Research on Climate Change Increasing evidence and awareness that climate change spawns short-term & long-term disasters (hence now under the purview of DHS and COEs)
Many CREATE researchers work in fields closely related to climate change (e.g., energy, environment, eng, risk analysis)
– research is generally applicable to disasters/terrorism & climate change
– at the same time some of this research on climate change has informed
research on disasters & terrorism
One of the major contributions of DHS University COEs is independent thinking & unrestricted time to pursue research we deem important even before it gets on the policy radar<br>
Many CREATE researchers work in fields closely related to climate change (e.g., energy, environment, eng, risk analysis)
– research is generally applicable to disasters/terrorism & climate change
– at the same time some of this research on climate change has informed
research on disasters & terrorism
One of the major contributions of DHS University COEs is independent thinking & unrestricted time to pursue research we deem important even before it gets on the policy radar<br>
09
Macroeconomic Impacts of Climate Change Econ Consequence Analysis studies have general applicability. Climate change is increasingly being viewed a security threat.
“Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks: Estimation for the Analysis of Policies and Rules," in Benefit Transfer for the Analysis of DHS Policies and Rules, Edward Elgar, 2015. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784711085.00016
“Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario,” Natural Hazards Review, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000173<br>
“Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks: Estimation for the Analysis of Policies and Rules," in Benefit Transfer for the Analysis of DHS Policies and Rules, Edward Elgar, 2015. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784711085.00016
“Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario,” Natural Hazards Review, 2016. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000173<br>
10
Mitigation of Climate Change Drivers Has some of the same features as mitigation of disasters; in this case, it’s about mitigating greenhouse gas emissions
“Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition,” Climate Policy, 2024 . http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2287076.
“Economywide Implications from U.S. Bioenergy Expansion,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2010.<br>
“Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition,” Climate Policy, 2024 . http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2287076.
“Economywide Implications from U.S. Bioenergy Expansion,” American Economic Review: Papers and Proceedings, 2010.<br>
11
Resilience to Climate Change Research on resilience to disasters applies to disasters exacerbated by climate change.
“Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on resilience to climate change in underserved communities,” Sustainability and Climate Change, doi:10.1089/scc.2021.0022
“Socioeconomic Impacts of Resilience to Seaport and Highway Transportation Network Disruption,” Transportation Research D, 2022. doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103236<br>
“Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on resilience to climate change in underserved communities,” Sustainability and Climate Change, doi:10.1089/scc.2021.0022
“Socioeconomic Impacts of Resilience to Seaport and Highway Transportation Network Disruption,” Transportation Research D, 2022. doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103236<br>
12
Adaptation to Climate Change Can be interpreted as mitigation of climate change impacts
“Vulnerable, resilient, or both? A qualitative study of adaptation resources and behaviors to heat waves and health outcomes of low-income residents of urban heat islands,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022. https://doi.org/10.330-/ijerph191711090.
“Envisioning climate change adaptation futures using storytelling workshops,” Sustainability, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126630<br>
“Vulnerable, resilient, or both? A qualitative study of adaptation resources and behaviors to heat waves and health outcomes of low-income residents of urban heat islands,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2022. https://doi.org/10.330-/ijerph191711090.
“Envisioning climate change adaptation futures using storytelling workshops,” Sustainability, 2021. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126630<br>
13
Distribution, Equity, Justice Fairness issues are becoming much more prominent in general
(see, e.g., recent revisions of OMB Circular A-4 Guidelines)
“Understanding and Mitigating the Impacts of Massive Relocations Due to Disasters,” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2017. https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/understanding-and-mitigating-impacts-massive-relocations-due-disasters
“Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Resilience to Climate Change in Underserved Communities,” Sustainability and Climate Change 14 (5): 288-304, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1089/scc.2021.0022<br>
(see, e.g., recent revisions of OMB Circular A-4 Guidelines)
“Understanding and Mitigating the Impacts of Massive Relocations Due to Disasters,” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, 2017. https://www.start.umd.edu/publication/understanding-and-mitigating-impacts-massive-relocations-due-disasters
“Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Resilience to Climate Change in Underserved Communities,” Sustainability and Climate Change 14 (5): 288-304, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1089/scc.2021.0022<br>
14
Policy Instrument Design Climate Change policy instruments also affect federal, state & local government operations directly, as well as international relations.
The Economics of Climate Change Policy: International, National and Regional Strategies, Edward Elgar, 2009. https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/the-economics-of-climate-change-policy-9781848440814.html
“Carbon Auctions, Energy Markets and Market Power: An Experimental Analysis,” Energy Economics 44: 468-482, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.013<br>
The Economics of Climate Change Policy: International, National and Regional Strategies, Edward Elgar, 2009. https://www.e-elgar.com/shop/usd/the-economics-of-climate-change-policy-9781848440814.html
“Carbon Auctions, Energy Markets and Market Power: An Experimental Analysis,” Energy Economics 44: 468-482, 2014. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.013<br>
15
Conclusion CREATE has established a reputation as a leading center for research on the economics and risks of terrorism and natural disasters.
Given our capabilities and contributions in our established areas and their applicability to a broader range of extreme events, as well as actual research and policy advising by CREATE Fellows working in parallel in the area of climate change, we are in a strong position to be a leader in this area well.<br>
Given our capabilities and contributions in our established areas and their applicability to a broader range of extreme events, as well as actual research and policy advising by CREATE Fellows working in parallel in the area of climate change, we are in a strong position to be a leader in this area well.<br>
16
Selected References Bier, V. M. 2017. “Understanding and Mitigating the Impacts of Massive Relocations Due to Disasters,” Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 1: 79-202. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41885-017-0003-4
Bier, V. M. et al. 2020. “Game-theoretic Modeling of Pre-disaster Relocation,” The Engineering Economist 65: 89-113. https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2019.1677837
Bruine de Bruin, W. et al. 2021. “Public understanding of climate change terminology,” Climatic Change 167(3-4): 37 . https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03183-0
Cutler, H., M. Shields, A. Rose, D. Wei, D. Keyser, and K. Crofton. 2023. “Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition,” Climate Policy, electronic preprint. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2287076
Gehlhar, M., A. Somwaru, P.B. Dixon, M.T. Rimmer, and A.R. Winston. 2010. “Economywide Implications from US Bioenergy Expansion,” American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 100(3): 172-77. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.172
Dixon, P.B., S. Osborne, and M.T. Rimmer. 2007. “The economy-wide effects in the United States of replacing crude petroleum with biomass,” Energy and Environment 18(6): 709-722. http://www.jstor.org/stable/44397171
Dormady, N. 2014. “Carbon auctions, energy markets and market power: An experimental analysis,” Energy Economics 44: 468-482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.013
Dormady, N. et al. 2022. “Informational Determinants of Large-Area Hurricane Evacuations,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103(3): E642-E656. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0008.1
Fong, M. and R. John. 2024. “Motivated Bias in Detecting Climate Change Misinformation,” Proceedings of the 57th Annual Hawaiian International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS-2024). https://hdl.handle.net/10125/106636<br>
Bier, V. M. et al. 2020. “Game-theoretic Modeling of Pre-disaster Relocation,” The Engineering Economist 65: 89-113. https://doi.org/10.1080/0013791X.2019.1677837
Bruine de Bruin, W. et al. 2021. “Public understanding of climate change terminology,” Climatic Change 167(3-4): 37 . https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-021-03183-0
Cutler, H., M. Shields, A. Rose, D. Wei, D. Keyser, and K. Crofton. 2023. “Regional Economic Impacts of the Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy Transition,” Climate Policy, electronic preprint. https://doi.org/10.1080/14693062.2023.2287076
Gehlhar, M., A. Somwaru, P.B. Dixon, M.T. Rimmer, and A.R. Winston. 2010. “Economywide Implications from US Bioenergy Expansion,” American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings 100(3): 172-77. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.100.2.172
Dixon, P.B., S. Osborne, and M.T. Rimmer. 2007. “The economy-wide effects in the United States of replacing crude petroleum with biomass,” Energy and Environment 18(6): 709-722. http://www.jstor.org/stable/44397171
Dormady, N. 2014. “Carbon auctions, energy markets and market power: An experimental analysis,” Energy Economics 44: 468-482. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.03.013
Dormady, N. et al. 2022. “Informational Determinants of Large-Area Hurricane Evacuations,” Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 103(3): E642-E656. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0008.1
Fong, M. and R. John. 2024. “Motivated Bias in Detecting Climate Change Misinformation,” Proceedings of the 57th Annual Hawaiian International Conference on System Sciences (HICSS-2024). https://hdl.handle.net/10125/106636<br>
17
Selected References (continued) Harcourt, R., W. Bruine de Bruin, S. Dessai, and A. Taylor. 2021. “Envisioning Climate Change Adaptation Futures Using Storytelling Workshops,” Sustainability 13(12): 6630. https://doi.org/10.3390/su1312663
Kunreuther, H., and Slovic, P. 2020. “What the Coronavirus Curve Teaches Us About Climate Change.” Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/26/what-the-coronavirus-curve-teaches-us-about-climate-change-148318
Palinkas, L.A. et al. 2022. “Vulnerable, Resilient, or Both? A Qualitative Study of Adaptation Resources and Behaviors to Heat Waves and Health Outcomes of Low-Income Residents of Urban Heat Islands,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19(17): 11090. https://doi.org/10.330-/ijerph191711090.
Palinkas, L.A. et al. 2021. “Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Resilience to Climate Change in Underserved Communities,” Sustainability and Climate Change 14 (5): 288-304. https://doi.org/10.1089/scc.2021.0022
Rose, A. 2009. “The Economics of Climate Change Policy: International, National and Regional Strategies,” Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. https://ideas.repec.org/b/elg/eebook/13269.html
Rose, A. 2015. “Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks: Estimation for the Analysis of Policies and Rules," in C. Mansfield and V. K. Smith (eds.), Benefit Transfer for the Analysis of DHS Policies and Rules, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784711085.00016
Sue Wing, I., A. Rose, and A. Wein. 2016. “Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario,” Natural Hazards Review 17(4): A4015002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000173
Wei, D., A. Rose, E. Koc, Z. Chen, and L. Soibelman. 2022. “Socioeconomic Impacts of Resilience to Seaport and Highway Transportation Network Disruption,” Transportation Research D: Transport and Environment 106: 103236. doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103236<br>
Kunreuther, H., and Slovic, P. 2020. “What the Coronavirus Curve Teaches Us About Climate Change.” Politico. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/03/26/what-the-coronavirus-curve-teaches-us-about-climate-change-148318
Palinkas, L.A. et al. 2022. “Vulnerable, Resilient, or Both? A Qualitative Study of Adaptation Resources and Behaviors to Heat Waves and Health Outcomes of Low-Income Residents of Urban Heat Islands,” International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 19(17): 11090. https://doi.org/10.330-/ijerph191711090.
Palinkas, L.A. et al. 2021. “Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Resilience to Climate Change in Underserved Communities,” Sustainability and Climate Change 14 (5): 288-304. https://doi.org/10.1089/scc.2021.0022
Rose, A. 2009. “The Economics of Climate Change Policy: International, National and Regional Strategies,” Cheltenham: Edward Elgar. https://ideas.repec.org/b/elg/eebook/13269.html
Rose, A. 2015. “Macroeconomic Consequences of Terrorist Attacks: Estimation for the Analysis of Policies and Rules," in C. Mansfield and V. K. Smith (eds.), Benefit Transfer for the Analysis of DHS Policies and Rules, Cheltenham, UK: Edward Elgar. https://doi.org/10.4337/9781784711085.00016
Sue Wing, I., A. Rose, and A. Wein. 2016. “Economic Consequence Analysis of the ARkStorm Scenario,” Natural Hazards Review 17(4): A4015002. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000173
Wei, D., A. Rose, E. Koc, Z. Chen, and L. Soibelman. 2022. “Socioeconomic Impacts of Resilience to Seaport and Highway Transportation Network Disruption,” Transportation Research D: Transport and Environment 106: 103236. doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103236<br>