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See the end pages of this presentation for important disclosures. Economic Research 15 September 2022 Title Subtitle Sonja Keller AC (27-11) 507-0376 sonja.c.keller@jpmorgan.com JPMorgan Chase Bank, N.A., Johannesburg Branch Global outlook and financial markets: At a crossroads Key themes: Recession fears and vulnerabilities (FX, debt) Economic outlook shapes financial markets Source: J.P. Morgan Returns per asset class (%) 1 Supply shocks induce 2H22 recession (40%) Central Banks induce late-’23/24 recession Soft-landing (no recession by 2023) Recession risk scenarios 2 Markets price around 50% recession risk Probability of recession within 1 year (%) Source: J.P. Morgan 3 US economic indicators: Confidence indicators are low Sentiment indicators low Labor market strong Source: J.P. Morgan 4 Central Banks induce late-’23/24 recession Door 2 as an alternative 2 If not Door 1, then Fed is expected to hike a lot further Fed-fund rate(%) Source: J.P. Morgan 6 Tightening in financial conditions in the US… 7 …spills over to EM 8 Central Banks likely to hike policy rates further 9 Exacerbating vulnerabilities in many EMs Debt in EM and frontier doubled since ‘08 Share of countries with high spreads of 1’000bp back at COVID-peak 10 Disclosures Analysts' Compensation: The research analysts responsible for the preparation of this report receive compensation based upon various factors, including the quality and accuracy of research, client feedback, competitive factors, and overall firm revenues. Other Disclosures J.P. Morgan is a marketing name for investment banking businesses of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its subsidiaries and affiliates worldwide. UK MIFID FICC research unbundling exemption: UK clients should refer to UK MIFID Research Unbundling exemption for details of JPMorgan’s implementation of the FICC research exemption and guidance on relevant FICC research categorisation. Any long form nomenclature for references to China; Hong Kong; Taiwan; and Macau within this research material are Mainland China; Hong Kong SAR (China); Taiwan (China); and Macau SAR (China). J.P. Morgan Research may, from time to time, write on issuers or securities targeted by economic or financial sanctions imposed or administered by the governmental authorities of the U.S., EU, UK or other relevant jurisdictions (Sanctioned Securities). Nothing in this report is intended to be read or construed as encouraging, facilitating, promoting or otherwise approving investment or dealing in such Sanctioned Securities. Clients should be aware of their own legal and compliance obligations when making investment decisions. Any digital or crypto assets discussed in this research report are subject to