The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP): Data,

Transcript:The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP): Data,:
The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP): Data, Models and Research Dominique van der Mensbrugghe Center for Global Trade Analysis Presentation for the Mandela Washington Fellows Leadership in Business Institute Purdue University, 5-July-2022 Introductions What is GTAP GTAP and AfCFTA Outline 2 Increasing demand for quantitative demand of global economic issues E.g. EU integration, WTO accession (China and Russia), ‘Trump’ trade war, AfCFTA Paris agreement to limit global GHG emissions Historically analysis was done: “in-house” in a few agencies: OECD, World Bank, etc., and No continuity, priorities change constantly, limited quality control At a few university research centers Limited funding, rent-seeking Motivation for GTAP 3 Combines the advantages of both approaches Publicly funded project: Based in academia (Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis) Supports a global economic database and model which are: fully documented; publicly available; easy to use with regular courses; and accessible to non-modelers. Thus begat GTAP… 4 GTAP establishes standards, coordinates the work and brings it altogether into ONE consistent analytical database: Global coverage: 158 regions, of which 139 individual countries (13 in v1!) 65 economic sectors (37 in v1) Bilateral trade data/shipping margins Protection data MacMap (from ITC/Geneva and CEPII) National databases (IO tables): national collaborators Increasing physical data Energy, CO2 emissions, other GHG emissions and other pollutants Land-use and water use Philosophy: Find the best person in the world to do the job and sell them on it! GTAP: the database 5 The data are key for credible policy analysis Broad participation: GTAP pools data development efforts, get best person in world on any given task Documentation Public availability Regular upgrades (just released V11) improved quality; Increased regional/sectoral definition; and Additional data, e.g. better services trade, public procurement GTAP: Data Principles 6 History of releases Spatial coverage—GTAP V10 8 Spatial coverage—GTAP V11 9 Sectoral coverage Agriculture etc. Processed food Oth. Manufacturing Energy intensive Services Well established: Evolution of FTAs WTO accession (used heavily for China’s accession) Impact of WTO agreement: Key tool for analysis of Doha Cost of climate change mitigation, impact on trade Sector trade disputes: steel tariffs, textiles and apparel quotas Emerging areas of application: Technology spillovers Energy, emissions and climate change mitigation Biofuels, land-use Imperfect competition/love of variety models (incl. Melitz) International migration Dynamics and international capital mobility Public procurement New policy issues drive extensions to model and database Issues addressed using GTAP 11 Core support from 31 institutions: International: ADB (Philippines),