The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP): Data, Models and Research Dominique van der Mensbrugghe Center for Global Trade Analysis Presentation for the Mandela Washington Fellows Leadership in Business Institute Purdue University,
Related Topics
Share
Embed code
Download this presentation From Below
"The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP): Data," is the property of its rightful owner. Permission is granted to
download and print the materials on this website for personal, non-commercial use only, and to display it
on your personal computer provided you do not modify the materials and that you retain all copyright
notices contained in the materials. By downloading content from our website, you accept the terms of this
agreement.
Presentation Transcript
01
The Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP): Data, Models and Research Dominique van der Mensbrugghe Center for Global Trade Analysis Presentation for the Mandela Washington Fellows
Leadership in Business Institute
Purdue University, 5-July-2022<br>
02
Introductions
What is GTAP
GTAP and AfCFTA Outline 2<br>
03
Increasing demand for quantitative demand of global economic issues
E.g. EU integration, WTO accession (China and Russia), ‘Trump’ trade war, AfCFTA
Paris agreement to limit global GHG emissions
Historically analysis was done:
“in-house” in a few agencies: OECD, World Bank, etc., and
No continuity, priorities change constantly, limited quality control
At a few university research centers
Limited funding, rent-seeking Motivation for GTAP 3<br>
04
Combines the advantages of both approaches
Publicly funded project:
Based in academia (Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis)
Supports a global economic database and model which are:
fully documented;
publicly available;
easy to use with regular courses; and
accessible to non-modelers. Thus begat GTAP… 4<br>
05
GTAP establishes standards, coordinates the work and brings it altogether into ONE consistent analytical database:
Global coverage: 158 regions, of which 139 individual countries (13 in v1!)
65 economic sectors (37 in v1)
Bilateral trade data/shipping margins
Protection data MacMap (from ITC/Geneva and CEPII)
National databases (IO tables): national collaborators
Increasing physical data
Energy, CO2 emissions, other GHG emissions and other pollutants
Land-use and water use
Philosophy: Find the best person in the world to do the job and sell them on it! GTAP: the database 5<br>
06
The data are key for credible policy analysis
Broad participation: GTAP pools data development efforts, get best person in world on any given task
Documentation
Public availability
Regular upgrades (just released V11)
improved quality;
Increased regional/sectoral definition; and
Additional data, e.g. better services trade, public procurement GTAP: Data Principles 6<br>
07
History of releases<br>
08
Spatial coverage—GTAP V10 8<br>
09
Spatial coverage—GTAP V11 9<br>
10
Sectoral coverage Agriculture etc. Processed food Oth. Manufacturing Energy intensive Services<br>
11
Well established:
Evolution of FTAs
WTO accession (used heavily for China’s accession)
Impact of WTO agreement: Key tool for analysis of Doha
Cost of climate change mitigation, impact on trade
Sector trade disputes: steel tariffs, textiles and apparel quotas
Emerging areas of application:
Technology spillovers
Energy, emissions and climate change mitigation
Biofuels, land-use
Imperfect competition/love of variety models (incl. Melitz)
International migration
Dynamics and international capital mobility
Public procurement
New policy issues drive extensions to model and database Issues addressed using GTAP 11<br>
12
Core support from 31 institutions:
International: ADB (Philippines), EC JRC/IPTS (Seville), EC DG-TRADE (Brussels), ERIA (Jakarta), IADB (USA), IFPRI (USA), IMF (USA), ITC (Switzerland), OECD (France), World Bank (USA), UNCTAD (Switzerland), UNECA (Ethiopia), WTO (Switzerland)
National: CEPII (France), Department for International Trade (UK), Development Research Center (China), ESRI (Japan), ERS/USDA (USA), Global Affairs (Canada), RIETI (Japan), Thünen Institute (Germany), US Dept. of Commerce (USA), US EPA (USA), US ITC (USA)
Academia and private sector: Wageningen WUR (Netherlands), GRIPS (Japan), MIT (USA), KPMG (Australia, UK, USA), McKinsey (USA)
And supported by 3 at-large members
Started with just 2 consortium members in 1994!
Agencies represented on the Advisory Board
Providing core funding
and advice on future directions GTAP: The Consortium 12<br>
13
GTAP U
Intro, mid-level, advanced and specialized courses
Some in-house, some online only
Journal of Global Economic Analysis (JGEA)
Plus technical and working papers
Discussion list—GTAP-L
Annual conferences
2006 Addis Ababa, 2014 Dakar, 2022 Kigali (postponed till 2025)
GTAP Web site (http://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/)
Web is key to communication and dissemination of information
GTAP network is 25,000+ strong from over 100 countries
Contributing data
Altering the model(s),
Writing papers and attending conferences
Thousands of GTAP-based applications GTAP: The Network 13<br>
14
14 *Contributing Members *Contributing members have participated in an event, contributed data, purchased the data base, etc.<br>
15
GTAP is now main tool for assessing economy-wide impacts of global trade and environmental issues
Extensive database and network of researchers
Excellent for asking ‘what if questions’ and illustrating basic economic principles such as Comparative Advantage and Trade is a Two-way Street
GTAP is relatively unique in economics, but likely quite similar to activities elsewhere in sciences
Success of project traced back to Short Courses
Consortium key to long term viability
Provides funding
But also key data inputs and leadership
Modest contribution by many agencies provides long-run stability Summary 15<br>
16
16 The African Continental
Free Trade Area (AfCFTA)<br>
17
Lift 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty and boost the incomes of nearly 68 million others who live on less than $5.50 a day;
Boost Africa’s income by $450 billion by 2035 (a gain of 7 percent) while adding $76 billion to the income of the rest of the world.
Increase Africa’s exports by $560 billion, mostly in manufacturing.
Spur larger wage gains for women (10.5 percent) than for men (9.9 percent).
Boost wages for both skilled and unskilled workers—10.3 percent for unskilled workers, and 9.8 percent for skilled workers. The African Continental Free Trade Agreement represents a major opportunity for countries to boost growth, reduce poverty, and broaden economic inclusion. Implementing AfCFTA would: 17<br>
18
‘Deep’ integration requires more than eliminating tariffs 18<br>
19
Sharp rise in inter-continental trade 19<br>
20
Re-allocation of production from changing comparative advantage 20<br>
21
Full report is available at: 21 https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/the-african-continental-free-trade-area#findings<br>
