Understanding the Expense Prediction Bias Chuck

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Understanding the Expense Prediction Bias Chuck Howard Sauder School of Business University of British Columbia David Hardisty Sauder School of Business University of British Columbia Melissa Knoll Consumer Financial Protection Bureau US

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01
Understanding the Expense Prediction Bias Chuck Howard
Sauder School of Business
University of British Columbia

David Hardisty
Sauder School of Business
University of British Columbia

Melissa Knoll
Consumer Financial Protection Bureau
US Federal Government

Abigail Sussman
Booth School of Business
University of Chicago<br>
02
What is Expense Prediction Bias? Expense Prediction Bias (EPB) is the persistent underestimation of future expenses<br>
03
Background – Expense Misprediction Previous research on expense misprediction has shown that people tend to under-predict their future expenses

Ulkumen, Thomas & Morowitz (2008): monthly (vs. yearly) budget forecasts are much lower than recorded expenses

Peetz & Buehler (2009): people underestimate future spending as a result of their savings goals

Sussman & Alter (2012): consumers underestimate their spending on exceptional expenses due to narrow categorization<br>