What is the Arab Awakening? Egypt Defining A

Transcript:What is the Arab Awakening? Egypt Defining A:
What is the Arab Awakening? Egypt Defining A Revolution: Tarek Shagosh  Faculty Collaborator: Patricia Turner, History Department  University of Wisconsin-Eau Claire The “Arab Awakening” is the recent trend of popular protest in the Middle East resulting in the usurpation of several dictators, extensive political reform, and prolonged conflict. This poster will examine several possible vulnerabilities contributing to the uprisings listed by Gelvin, Wright and Davies. Utilizing Charles Tilly’s theory on revolutions, we will determine what type of domestic conflict three Arab protest movements resulted in as well as the role of the vulnerabilities in their outcomes. Charles Tilly defines a “revolutionary situation” as possessing the following characteristics: The appearance of contenders advancing competing claims to control of the state. Commitment to those claims by a significant portion segment of the citizenry. An unwillingness or incapacity of rulers to suppress the claims of the opposing coalition. (Tilly, 1996) Evaluating the Success of the “Arab Awakening” Revolutionary Situations Began in January 2011 with a protest movement of the citizenry taking control of Tahir Square in Cairo and rebuffing the aggressions of Mubarak loyalists. The military has long had a strong relationship with the regime, however they remained neutral during the uprising, allowing the protests to unfold without interference.. Since Mubarak stepped down, the military council has ruled over the daily affairs of Egypt, butting heads with newly elected officials regarding the drafting of a new constitution, Conclusions: NOTE: The conclusions I have drawn are topical and any new development can dramatically alter them. Egypt’s military or Assad could surrender power; Libya could fracture. Egypt: Top-down seizure of power. Although the protests began as a popular uprising, the military remains in control, bringing the validity of any transfer in power into question until they relinquish control. Syria: Revolt. The situation persists with two groups violently competing for power. Recent support from the international community for the STC may yet lead to a regime change. Libya: Great Revolution. Control of the state has been completely transferred from the Gaddafi regime to the NTC. Elections are planned for summer 2012. While food prices and demography have been instrumental to the formation of revolutionary situations, the most important factor in a great revolution has been regime weakness, where the government has failed to curb opposition and stay in power. Acknowledgments Thank you to Paula Hagen for her support and advice. The printing of this