World Economic Outlook 18 August 2016 Sara

Transcript:World Economic Outlook 18 August 2016 Sara:
World Economic Outlook 18 August 2016 Sara Johnson, Senior Research Director, Global Economics +1 781 301 9115, sara.johnson@ihsmarkit.com Economics Global economic growth remains subdued Global growth will remain below 3% in 2017 as slowdowns in Europe and China offset accelerations in the United States and emerging markets. US economic growth will pick up from 1.6% in 2016 to 2.4% in 2017, led by consumer spending and homebuilding. Economic and political uncertainty will hurt UK investment, consumer spending, and capital inflows, stalling UK growth in the year ahead. Eurozone growth is projected to slow from 1.5% in 2016 to 1.1% in 2017, reflecting increased political instability and banking problems. China’s economic growth will slow further because of imbalances in credit, housing, and industrial markets. Recessions in Brazil and Russia are abating. 2 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 (Index, over 50 indicates expansion) Markit manufacturing PMIs send mixed signals 3 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 Purchasing managers’ indexes Sources: Markit © 2016 IHS Emerging markets will lead a pickup in global growth 4 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 Real GDP Source: IHS © 2016 IHS Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan) will achieve the fastest growth in real GDP 5 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 Real GDP Source: IHS © 2016 IHS Real GDP growth in major economies: August forecast 6 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 Source: IHS © 2016 IHS The United States will outpace the Eurozone and Japan in real GDP growth 7 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 Real GDP Source: IHS © 2016 IHS Real GDP growth in key emerging markets: Recessions in Russia and Brazil are abating 8 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 Real GDP Source: IHS © 2016 IHS The era of rapid growth in world trade has ended 9 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 Real GDP and trade Source: IHS © 2016 IHS Why has growth in world trade slowed? 10 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 European and Japanese central banks will keep policy interest rates low for several more years 11 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 Policy interest rates Source: IHS © 2016 IHS Policy interest rates in key emerging markets respond to inflation and exchange-rate pressures 12 US Economic Outlook / August 2016 Policy interest rates * One-year loan rate Source: IHS © 2016 IHS Industrial materials prices have rebounded since mid-January but remain low IHS Materials