AA S W e b ina r o n A n t i c ip at io n 2015 N eantro S aaved r a Rivano Professor Emeritu s U niversity of T suku b a J uly ID: 635568
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Slide1
N
otes for the
WAAS Webinar on Anticipation 2015
N
eantro
S
aaved
r
a
-
Rivano Professor
Emeritu
s
,
U
niversity
of
T
suku
b
a
J
uly
21,
2015Slide2
Som
e common criticism of conventional economic thinking
Ahistorical method and
app
r
oa
c
h
G
i
v
es
s
h
o
rt
s
hrif
t
o
r
plainly
ig
n
o
r
es
s
o
c
ia
l
i
s
s
ues
P
r
et
en
s
io
n
t
o
b
e
v
alue-f
r
ee
U
nif
orm
p
oli
c
y
r
e
c
ip
es
r
eg
a
r
d
les
s
o
f
s
p
e
c
ific
c
o
un
try
c
o
n
t
ex
t
Me
c
hani
s
t
ic
v
ie
w
o
f
what
s
h
o
ul
d
b
e
a
hu
man
sc
ien
c
eSlide3
M
y own (favorite) critique
Views the “human environment” as immutab
le
I
t
t
hu
s
ig
n
o
r
es
t
h
e
fa
c
t
t
ha
t
t
hi
s
en
v
i
r
o
n
m
ent
ha
s
b
een
c
han
ging
t
h
r
o
u
g
h
o
ut
t
h
e
ag
es
and
t
he
r
e
is
n
o
r
easo
n
t
o
a
s
s
u
m
e
t
ha
t
p
r
o
c
e
s
s
will
s
t
o
p
Im
p
a
c
t
o
f
k
n
owle
d
g
e
is
lim
it
ed
t
o
t
ha
t
o
f
t
e
c
hn
olo
gy
i
n
p
r
o
duc
t
io
n
p
r
o
c
e
s
s
es
Refu
s
es
t
o
a
c
k
n
owle
d
g
e
t
h
e
r
o
l
e
o
f
k
n
owle
d
g
e
and
t
e
c
hn
olo
gy
in
t
ransform
ing
s
o
c
iet
y
,
it
s
in
s
t
it
u
t
io
n
s
and
world
v
iewsSlide4
Som
e elements for an anticipatory approach to economic theory
Recognition that human
and
s
o
c
ia
l
e
f
fo
rt
s
t
o
r
e
d
u
c
e
un
c
ertaint
y
g
enerate
p
r
o
c
es
s
es
t
hat
b
e
c
om
e
p
rim
e
in
d
u
c
ers
o
f
c
han
ge
T
he
s
e
p
r
o
c
es
s
es
a
r
e
b
o
und
t
o
t
ransform
e
c
o
n
o
mic
in
s
t
itut
io
n
s
.
T
hei
r
o
ut
c
om
e
is
n
o
t
alway
s
c
lear
:
i
n
s
om
e
c
ases
c
rises
m
ay
d
elay
t
h
o
s
e
o
ut
c
omes
,
o
ft
en
t
he
r
e
m
ig
h
t
b
e
m
ultip
l
e
s
o
lut
io
ns
Ec
o
n
o
mic
t
he
o
ry
nee
d
s
t
o
“ant
i
c
ip
at
e”
(at
leas
t
)
t
h
e
b
r
oad
o
ut
lines
o
f
t
he
s
e
t
ransform
at
io
n
s
and
a
d
ap
t
it
s
analy
s
is
a
c
c
o
r
d
ing
l
y
.
B
o
t
h
n
orm
at
i
v
e
and
p
o
s
it
i
v
e
app
r
oa
c
he
s
a
r
e
p
o
ss
ib
le
I
n
s
om
e
in
s
t
an
c
es,
t
he
s
e
c
han
g
es
a
r
e
al
r
ea
d
y
t
aking
s
ha
pe
(no
nee
d
o
f
“ant
i
c
ip
at
io
n”),
while
e
c
o
n
o
mic
t
he
o
ry
s
t
il
l
s
t
r
ug
g
les
t
o
r
e
c
o
g
niz
e
t
hemSlide5
Passiv
e versus active anticipation
Three possible situations for a transformation processTransformation already too
k
pl
a
c
e
b
u
t
i
s
n
o
t
g
enerall
y
p
e
r
c
ei
v
e
d
T
r
an
s
i
t
i
o
n
s
moo
t
h
an
d
o
u
t
c
om
e
c
a
n
b
e
g
ue
ss
e
d
T
r
an
s
i
t
i
o
n
i
s
n
o
t
s
moo
t
h
(
c
ri
s
i
s
)
,
m
ul
t
ipli
c
i
t
y
o
f
p
o
ss
i
b
l
e
o
u
t
c
om
e
s
I
n
th
e
firs
t
cas
e
the
r
e
i
s
no
t
particula
r
nee
d
fo
r
anticipation
,
althoug
h
economi
c
theor
y
nee
d
t
o
adjus
t
its
tool
s
an
d
model
s
(positiv
e
app
r
oach)
I
n
th
e
secon
d
cas
e
anticipatio
n
i
s
important
,
albei
t
i
t
wil
l
b
e
passiv
e
i
n
th
e
sens
e
tha
t
i
t
canno
t
a
f
fec
t
the
(unavoidable
)
outcome
;
app
r
oac
h
f
r
o
m
economi
c
theor
y
wil
l
onc
e
agai
n
b
e
positive
I
n
th
e
thi
r
d
cas
e
anticipatio
n
ha
s
a
potentia
l
t
o
b
e
activ
e
an
d
tr
y
t
o
stee
r
th
e
transformatio
n
p
r
oces
s
towa
r
ds
a
desi
r
e
d
(and
,
i
n
som
e
cases
,
designed
)
outcome
;
the
r
e
i
s
a
normativ
e
r
ol
e
fo
r
economi
c
theory
I
n
al
l
cases
,
th
e
impossibilit
y
fo
r
th
e
socia
l
scientis
t
t
o
b
e
a
n
externa
l
observe
r
need
s
t
o
b
e
acknowledgedSlide6
Po
ssible methodological tools (tentative)
Mechanism design theoryArtificial
agent
s
t
he
o
ry
E
xp
eri
m
ent
al
e
c
o
n
o
mi
c
s