Biryukova HSE Russia Alla O Tyndik ranepa russia Who prefers zero Attitudes toward childlessness in Russia and in its capital city EUROPEAN POPULATION CONFERENCE 2014 ID: 238009
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Slide1
Svetlana S. Biryukova (HSE, Russia)Alla O. Tyndik (ranepa, russia)
Who prefers zero?Attitudes toward childlessness in Russia and in its capital city
EUROPEAN POPULATION CONFERENCE 2014Slide2
Results of previous researchAttained fertility level strongly depends on reproductive preferences and intentions (correlation reported
since Freedman, Baumert and Bolte, 1959)In developed countries voluntary childless women are those who drive the dynamics of childlessness (Hakim 2000).
Main drivers of childlessness growth are (
De Jong and Sell 1977, Heaton
et al. 1999, Mettinen 2010, Seiz 2013 …):education levelgrowth in women’s economic independence (employment, equality)Literally no quantitative studies of childlessness in RussiaNo dataNot relevant until recently, universal model of 1-2 child family
2Slide3
Data and methodMicro data of the 2002 a
nd 2010 National CensusesDe facto childless womenInclude woman’s year of birth
(covariate): 1935-1988
Generation & Gender Survey, Russia (2011)
11 183 respondentsMoscow and its Citizens Survey, Moscow (2013)3 109 respondentsKaplan-Meier estimatorSurvival function for the status “childless”Cox proportional-hazards regression
Logistic regression
Zero child preferences / non-zero child preferences
3Slide4
2002 to 2010: childlessness in Census datagrowth of eventual childlessness
Age group
Census-2010, %
Census-2002, %
RussiaMoscowRussia
Moscow
35-39
11.5
17.1
7.4
10.
740-448.011.66.08.045-496.59.05.87.8
Share of childless women is obviously increasingMoscow keeps the leadershipChildless rate in Russia is still lower comparing to many European countriesWhat is it, postponing or childlessness?
4Slide5
1930-s to 1980-s fertility transitionpostponing first birth more and more1935-1969: shift to younger ages
1970-1988: rapid postponingProlonged postponing childlessness?
5Slide6
The risk of experiencing the first birth for women born in 1988 is more than twice as low comparing to those born in 1950
Still shows lowering trend6
1950-s to 1980-s fertility transition
relative risk of the first birthSlide7
Who are Russian childless? (1)Moscow and Country on the wholeIf it was entirely up to you: How many children in total do you want or rather would you have wanted?
MaCS: 17% of actually childless prefer “zero” (138/815)GGS: 5,3%
(82/1535)
Variables in regression:sexgendercohabitation experienceeducationincome level & employmentnumber of siblingsopinions towards marriage and childbearingtype of settlement (city, town, village)Some differences in predictors between samples
7Slide8
Who are Russian childless? (2)Moscow and Country on the whole8Slide9
9Who are Russian childless? (3)Moscow and Country on the wholeSlide10
discussionOur estimations of the childlessness level in Russia agree
with those for the CEE15-22% for generations born in 1970 and later (Frejka, 2008)
Portraits
of child-free individuals in Moscow and in Russia differ a
lot nowVoluntary childlessness gradually becomes more commonChallenge for family policyFuture researchNew factors of childlessness in Russia: first results of qualitative researchFeature selection models10Slide11
11sbiryukova@hse.ru / tyndik-ao@rane.ru
Thank you!
The research is supported by
the
Basic Research Program at the National Research University Higher School of Economics (HSE)
within the project “
Evaluation of population wellbeing dynamics and
modeling
of tax, economic and social policies effects on
households” (TZ-39) and by
the Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.