Scenario Planning Jessica Morriss AICP Transportation Planning Manager City of Missoula amp Missoula MPO Over view Introduction to Missoula MPO Missoulas scenario planning experiences Community engagement ID: 931376
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Slide1
Missoula
Metropolitan Planning OrganizationScenario Planning
Jessica Morriss, AICPTransportation Planning ManagerCity of Missoula & Missoula MPO
Slide2Over
view
Introduction to Missoula MPO
Missoula’s scenario planning experiences
Community engagement
Types of Scenarios
Tools and metrics
Key takeaways
Slide3Missoula
MPO
Small MPO
Includes: City of Missoula and Missoula County
Approx. 120,000 in urban area
Hub of 5-valleys – limited outward growth potentialHigh cost-of-living; low-wagesNo tax diversity
Missoula is Montana’s “liberal outpost”City/MPO generally not on the same page as Montana DOT
Slide4Missoula
MPO
Goals and priorities
Support transportation options
Emphasize social equity and community health
Improve public outreach opportunities
Slide5Missoula’s Introduction
to Scenario
Planning
1
st
Missoula-region scenario planning led by MPO in 2008 LRTP “
Envision Missoula”Desire to link transportation investment to growth/land use3 future scenarios based on growth/land use and transportation for 200,000 population Montana DOT not exactly “on-board” with the
land use piece of the effort
Slide6Engagement throughout process
Initial visioning workshops – developed land use/transportation scenarios (except
BAU
)
BAU
scenario developed by public and private individuals experienced with Missoula growth and development
Transportation survey – statistical survey via phoneTraditional public workshop to review scenariosInteragency consultationsFinal plan open house
Envision Missoula Community Engagement
Slide7Business As Usual
Invest in roadway expansion
Target known high-growth areas, but still low density development
Do not depend on growth management
Suburban Satellites
Invest in 4 distinct multimodal corridors anchored by nodes
Highest transit investment
Limit system expansion and rely on local planning and zoning to create town centers
Focus Inward
Invest heavily in Downtown
Highest density of development in urban core
Focus on short-trips (bikes &
peds
)
Limit system expansion and rely on local planning and zoning
Envision Missoula Scenarios
Slide8Public input used to choose Focus Inward Scenario
Chosen scenario was used to guide project ranking and prioritized project list – but only loosely
TransCAD used to model prioritized projects, but after scenario was chosen
No performance measures other than
VMT
and congestion and no comparison among scenarios
Envision Missoula Scenarios
Tools and Metrics
Slide9Land use and transportation are inextricably linked (duh)
Prioritized transportation projects should strongly support the chosen scenario (duh)
Performance measures should be used to compare scenarios
Performance measures should reflect other goals besides congestion reduction
Envision Missoula Takeaways
Slide102016 Long Range Transportation Plan “Activate Missoula”
Continued Scenario Planning
Slide11Activate Missoula Community Engagement
Community engagement throughout
Unique website
Interactive maps and surveys
Transportation survey – statistical via internet
Technical and citizen advisory committees
Traditional public meetings
Slide12Activate Missoula Community Engagement
Public input used to:
Rank plan goals & add new goal (community health & social equity)
Develop scenarios around concept of tying funding to mode share
Choose a scenario and set a mode share goal
Slide13Activate Missoula Scenarios
Slide14Activate Missoula Scenarios
Slide15Activate Missoula Scenarios
Slide16Activate Missoula Scenarios
Slide17Activate Missoula Scenarios
Slide18Activate Missoula Scenarios
Slide19Activate Missoula
Chosen Scenario
Slide20Activate Missoula Tools and Metrics
Scenario analysis
based on:
Public input
Travel
demand model
VMTDelayNew bike, walk, bus tripsPerformance against plan goals and objectives/criteriaCommunity health & Social equitySafetyEfficiency & ConnectivitySystem preservationCost effectivenessLand use & Transportation consistencyEconomic vitalityEnvironmental preservation
Slide21Activate Missoula Takeaways
Not acceptable to only conduct traditional public meetings
Involve all stakeholders throughout the process, especially State DOT
Congestion will not be solved via new and bigger roads
We can’t afford it
Scenarios
built around mode share goals helped simplify communication of concepts Mode share can be used as a proxy for other factors (organizing principle related to sustainability and resiliency)
Slide22Key Scenario
P
lanning
Takeaways
Engage with public and stakeholders early and often via multiple methods
Scenarios should be simple
Scenarios should be judged across range of goals and objectives
Acknowledge that transportation is only part of the equation, but projects have to actually contribute to the desired result, not just the status quo
Slide23Thank you!
Any Questions?