CELEBRATING 150 YEARS OF QUALITY EDUCATION PROUDLY PRESENTING BERNARD SALT Australias leading social commentator and futurist Scots School Albury Education in Regional Australia Preparing for the ID: 767475
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CELEBRATING 150 YEARS OF QUALITY EDUCATION
PROUDLY PRESENTING BERNARD SALT Australia’s leading social commentator and futurist
Scots School Albury Education in Regional Australia: Preparing for the Jobs of the Future Bernard Salt 11 February 2016
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Sydney Melbourne Hobart Adelaide Perth Darwin Brisbane Canberra Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics Australians have always been driven by lifestyle Areas of high population growth (>2% pa) and loss (<-1% pa) between 1992 and 2014 WINNERS LOSERS
Lifestyle and resources cities are projected to rise fastest 1954 1 Sydney 1,863 2 Melbourne 1,524 3 Brisbane 502 4 Adelaide 484 5 Perth 349 6 Newcastle 178 7 Hobart 95 8 Wollongong 91 9 Geelong 72 10 Launceston 4911Ballarat4812Toowoomba4313Rockhampton41 14 Townsville4015Ipswich3916Bendigo3717 Broken Hill3118Canberra2819Blue Mountains2320Kalgoorlie232014 1 Sydney4,8412Melbourne 4,4403Brisbane 2,2754Perth2,0215Adelaide1,3056Gold Coast - Tweed 615 7 Newcastle - Maitland 431 8 Canberra - Queanbeyan 423 9Sunshine Coast29810Wollongong28911Greater Hobart21912Geelong18413Townsville18014Cairns14715Greater Darwin13916Toowoomba11417Ballarat9918Bendigo9219Albury - Wodonga8820Launceston87 20501Sydney7,6882Melbourne7,6703Perth4,6334Brisbane4,1885Adelaide1,7976Gold Coast - Tweed1,2257Canberra - Queanbeyan7228Newcastle - Maitland5889Sunshine Coast50310Wollongong38411Townsville34012Geelong30113Greater Hobart26514Cairns22515Greater Darwin20916Toowoomba19717Mackay19318Ballarat18119Bendigo16120Rockhampton142 Population figures expressed in ‘000s Source: Based on data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics; relevant State Government planning authorities 2014-502,8473,2302,6121,9134926112991572069516111746786983108826962 % growth 59% 73% 129% 84% 38% 99% 71% 36% 69% 33% 89% 64% 21% 53% 50% 73% 122% 83% 75% 75%
Net change in Albury & Wodonga LGA population by 5-year age group over 10 years to 2014 and 10 years to 2024 Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics Growth in school-age kids, young families and retirees in Albury-Wodonga 2004-2014: 9,200 (80,000 to 89,200) 2014-2024: 11,400 (89,200 to 100,600) Kids & teenagers Suburbia Young adults Professional development Active retirees Coaching & skills transfer Mature adults Home office & re-skilling -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0 – 4 5 – 9 10 – 14 15 – 19 20 – 24 25 – 29 30 – 34 35 – 39 40 – 44 45 – 49 50 – 54 55 – 59 60 – 64 65 – 69 70 – 74 75 – 79 80 – 84 85+
Australians are changing the way they live at each stage of the lifecycle Source: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG Demographics 0 90 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Child Adult Old 1936 Child Teen Old Adult 1976 71 Child Adolescence Lifestyle Old Retired 2016 Adult 82 63 Change in life expectancy over 80 years in Australia
From Boomers to Xers and Ys … and finally to Zeds Source: KPMG Demographics Forgotten generation Wrong place … wrong time No workplace guilt Angsty about Ys Peak career X GENERATION Born 1965 – 1982 Today 34 – 51 Hierarchical Indulged their kids Depression era parents Sandwich generation Downshifting BABY BOOMERS Born 1946 – 1964 Today 52 – 70 Y GENERATION Special … bubble-wrap Chaotic connection Entrepreneurials Disappointed generation? Household formation Born 1983 – 2000 Today 16 – 33 Parents results-oriented Youth in straitened timesHighly educated, global Pragmatists … fixers School kidsZGENERATIONBorn 2001 – 2019Today 0 – 15
Generational shift in the way Australians work Healthcare & Social Assist. Professional / Scientific/Tech . Public Admin & Safety Accom & Food Admin & Support Mining Education & Training Arts & Recreation Financial & Insurance Other Services Retail Trade Wholesale Trade Rental/hiring & Real Estate Info Media & Telecoms Manufacturing Electricity/Gas/Water & Waste Agriculture/Forestry & FishingTransport/Postal/WarehouseConstructionSource: Based on Australian Bureau of Statistics data; KPMG DemographicsHealthcare & Social Assist Professionals & Sciences Education15 years November 2015 – up 3.0m (8.9m – 11.9m) ConstructionNov 2000 – Nov 2015 (000)Jobs grown: 3,292Jobs contracted: 326Net jobs added: 2,965 -200 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800
The way we live has changed … Australians are forever in pursuit of lifestyle 1950s Today
Two groups shaping the future labour force Source: KPMG Demographics Depth of experience & good relationships Ideal Global Corporate Citizen Has a ‘global mindset’ Possibly spent time in the military Possesses and employs cultural sensitivity Experience in running a division or program May have lived abroad in youth Second language to English Law degree & business degree eg MBA Agreeable or moveable spouse/partner Aged 38-42 The Reality of Generation Y Yet to prove themselves beyond good times & through the GFC Children of rich, guilty and indulgent baby boomer parents Exposure to different cultures via technology Possibly involved in volunteer work abroad Backpacker, GAP or OE year Widely travelled; possibly second language No mortgage; deferrable debt No relationship commitments Aged 15-30 Moves frequently between jobs
Source: Icons made by Freepik from www.flaticon.com ; KPMG Demographics The best things parents can do for their kids Build the soft skills of sociability, adaptability and resilience 1 Be aware that the future belongs to knowledge workers and to the skilled 2 Impart life skills such as the ability to save , to plan, to manage 3 Present role models to children … show them what’s possible 4 Love them 5
@ bernardsalt Bernard Salt Demographer linkedin.com/in/bernardsalt bsalt@kpmg.com.au +61 3 9288 5047 www.bernardsalt.com.au @bernardsalt Connect
CELEBRATING 150 YEARS OF QUALITY EDUCATION