PPT-Unit 9: Probability Day 1

counting principle and permutations 3Digit Codes Bell researchers developed a system of 3digit codes that would automatically route calls to long distance We now call this an area code. Uses of Probability. Probability is used all of the time in real life. Gambling . Sports. Weather. Insurance. Medical Decisions. Standardized Tests. And others. Definition of Probability. “The . likelihood of something . Simulation. Probability rules. Counting and tree diagrams . Intersection (“and”): the multiplication rule, and independent events. Union (“or”): the addition rule, and disjoint events. Venn diagrams. Problem. Historical Distribution. The Newsvendor Problem- Discrete pdf. Cost =1800, Sales Price = 2500, Salvage Price = 1700. Underage Cost = 2500-1800 = 700, Overage Cost = 1800-1700 = 100. What is probability of demand to be equal to 130? . Random Variables and Probability Models:. Binomial, Geometric and Poisson Distributions. Streamline Treatment of Probability. Sample spaces and events are good . starting. points for probability. Sample spaces and events become quite cumbersome when applied to real-life business-related processes. calculus. 1 ≥ . Pr. (h) ≥ 0. If e deductively implies h, then Pr(h|e) = 1. .. (disjunction rule) If h and g are mutually exclusive, then . Pr. (h or g) = . Pr. (h) . Pr. (g). (disjunction rule) If h and g are . 4. Introduction. (slide 1 of 3). A key . aspect of solving real business problems is dealing appropriately with uncertainty.. This involves recognizing explicitly that uncertainty exists and using quantitative methods to model uncertainty.. What we learned last class…. We are not good at recognizing/dealing with randomness. Our “random” coin flip results weren’t streaky enough.. If B/G results behave like independent coin flips, we know how many families to EXPECT with 0,1,2,3,4 girls.. Probability is used all of the time in real life. Gambling . Sports. Weather. Insurance. Medical Decisions. Standardized Tests. And others. Definition of Probability. “The . likelihood of something . Conditional Probability. Conditional Probability: . A probability where a certain prerequisite condition has already been met.. Conditional Probability Notation. The probability of Event A, given that Event B has already occurred, is expressed as P(A | B).. Slide . 2. Probability - Terminology. Events are the . number. of possible outcome of a phenomenon such as the roll of a die or a fillip of a coin.. “trials” are a coin flip or die roll. Slide . Sixth Edition. Douglas C. Montgomery George C. . Runger. Chapter 2 Title and Outline. 2. 2. Probability. 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events . 2-1.1 Random Experiments. 2-1.2 Sample Spaces . Sixth Edition. Douglas C. Montgomery George C. . Runger. Chapter 2 Title and Outline. 2. 2. Probability. 2-1 Sample Spaces and Events . 2-1.1 Random Experiments. 2-1.2 Sample Spaces . A value between zero and one that describe the relative possibility(change or likelihood) an event occurs.. The MEF announces that in 2012 the change Cambodia economic growth rate is equal to 7% is 80%.. Probability and Probability Distribution Dr Manoj Kumar Bhambu GCCBA-42, Chandigarh M- +91-988-823-7733 mkbhambu@hotmail.com Probability and Probability Distribution: Definitions- Probability Rules –Application of Probability